Economic Survey reports stronger monsoon rains and higher Rabi canal water withdrawals, while regional water distribution remains uneven
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan recorded 22.6 percent above-normal monsoon rainfall during July–September 2025, while canal water withdrawals for the Rabi 2025-26 cropping season increased by 6.5 percent, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2025-26.
The survey highlights notable changes in seasonal rainfall patterns and irrigation water availability, underscoring the impact of evolving climatic conditions and water management on the country’s agriculture sector.
Monsoon rainfall exceeds long-term average
According to the survey, Pakistan received an area-weighted average of 172.8 millimetres (mm) of rainfall during the 2025 monsoon season, compared with the long-term average of 140.9 mm based on the 1961–2010 benchmark.
The country received 31.9 mm more rainfall than normal, representing an increase of 22.6 percent.
However, rainfall fell below average during the post-monsoon and winter seasons.
| Season | Normal (mm) | Actual (mm) | Difference (mm) | % Difference |
| Monsoon (Jul–Sep 2025) | 140.9 | 172.8 | +31.9 | +22.6% |
| Post-Monsoon (Oct–Dec 2025) | 26.4 | 21.2 | -5.2 | -19.7% |
| Winter (Jan–Mar 2026) | 78.1 | 68.5 | -9.6 | -12.3% |
The survey noted that rainfall estimates are calculated on an area-weighted basis using the long-period average (1961–2010) as the reference.
Rabi canal water withdrawals increase
Water availability for the Rabi 2025-26 cropping season improved, with total canal head withdrawals rising to 31.35 million acre-feet (MAF) from 29.43 MAF in the previous Rabi season.
The increase of 6.5 percent reflects improved irrigation supplies across most provinces.
| Province | Rabi 2024-25 (MAF) | Rabi 2025-26 (MAF) | Change |
| Punjab | 15.56 | 16.45 | +5.7% |
| Sindh | 12.15 | 13.22 | +8.8% |
| Balochistan | 1.04 | 1.12 | +7.7% |
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 0.67 | 0.55 | -17.9% |
| Pakistan | 29.43 | 31.35 | +6.5% |
Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan all recorded higher canal withdrawals, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa experienced a 17.9 percent decline.
Kharif water availability remains stable
During the Kharif 2025 season (April–September), total canal head withdrawals remained broadly unchanged at 60.56 MAF, compared with 60.48 MAF in Kharif 2024, representing a marginal increase of 0.1 percent.
Provincial trends, however, differed significantly.
| Province | Kharif 2024 (MAF) | Kharif 2025 (MAF) | Change |
| Punjab | 31.77 | 28.36 | -10.7% |
| Sindh | 26.16 | 28.95 | +10.7% |
| Balochistan | 1.59 | 2.18 | +37.1% |
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 0.95 | 1.07 | +12.6% |
| Pakistan | 60.48 | 60.56 | +0.1% |
The canal withdrawal figures, sourced from the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), show that while overall water availability remained stable during the Kharif season, the distribution of irrigation supplies varied considerably among provinces.
The Economic Survey noted that the combination of above-normal monsoon rainfall and improved Rabi water availability is expected to support agricultural production. However, regional disparities in water distribution and the growing impact of climate variability continue to present challenges for efficient irrigation management and sustainable agricultural development.