Weekly Review: Stabilizing macro-economic continue to fuel bullish trend

KARACHI: The upswing in the market may be met with some profit-taking next week. The continuation of the sit-in in the federal capital may create some apprehensions which we expect to create some short-lived jitters in the market, analysts said.

“We expect the stabilizing macro-economy to continue fueling the bullish trend over the medium to long term,” analysts at Arif Habib Limited said.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is currently trading at a PER of 6.2x (2020) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 13.6x and while offering DY of ~8.8 percent versus ~2.5 percent offered by the region.

The jubilance in the KSE-100 index continued from last week and provided an 11-week high return of 4.7 percent WoW. Expectation of a rate cut in the near future on the back of continuous decline in government securities’ yields was further cemented with the government slashing National Savings Scheme profit rates by 170-228bps across the different schemes.

However, inflation reading for October 2019 settled at 11.04 percent YoY which was higher than expectations, but failed to deter the positive momentum. Moreover, SBP reserves increased to USD 8.4 billion which is the highest level since April.

Furthermore, external account position continued to improve with the trade deficit declining 34 percent YoY during 4MFY20. The index closed at 35,978 points – a 6 month high (124 trading sessions), and up by 1601 points WoW.

Foreign buying was witnessed this week clocking-in at USD 4.5 million compared to a net sell of USD 3.1 million last week. Buying was witnessed in Fertilizer (USD 6.7 million) and OGMCs (USD 3.2 million).

On the domestic front, major selling was reported by Banks / DFIs (USD 6.0 million) and Insurance Companies (USD 4.6 million). Average Volumes settled at 258 million shares (up by 55 percent WoW) while average value traded clocked-in at USD 54 million (up by 52 percent WoW).

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