Weekly Review: stock market likely to maintain buoyancy

KARACHI: The stock market likely to maintain its buoyancy during next week owing to economic improvement.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that index will continue it’s upward journey as the economy depicts signs of resurrection.

Improvement on the external front together with stability in the Pak Rupee is expected to reassure foreign investors.

Meanwhile inflationary readings are set to touch peak in January 2020 and with an imminent interest rate cut to follow, domestic investors remain jubilant as well.

The KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is currently trading at a PER of 7.2x (2020) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 13.6x and while offering DY of ~7.8 percent versus ~2.6 percent offered by the region.

The domestic equity bourse breached the 41,000 level this week (last seen in February 2019) albeit, settling at 40,917 points (up by 184 points and 0.45 percent WoW).

This marks the highest index return in terms of percentage generated in seven consecutive weeks (+21.6 percent) in the past 10 years, last observed in September 2009.

Although some profit-taking was witnessed throughout the week, a swift rally at the index on the last day reflects continued investor confidence on the back of improving macros (trade deficit narrowed by 33 percent during 5MFY20 and reserves held by the SBP jumped up to USD 9.23bn), and lower bond yields (under 11 percent for 10-year PIBs as per latest auction), which further opens up valuations.

Sector-wise positive contributions came from i) Oil & Gas Exploration (273 points) as Pakistan invites Russia to acquire governments share in OGDC and PPL, ii) Chemical (54 points), iii) Food and personal care (47 points), iv) Fertilizer (42 points), and v) Tobacco (38 points). Scrip-wise positive contributions were led by OGDC (101 points), PPL (84 points), MARI (52 points), NESTLE (43 points) and POL (36 points).

Foreign selling was witnessed this week clocking-in at USD 9.1 million compared to a net buy of USD 1.1 million last week. Selling was witnessed in E&P (USD 5.4 million) and Commercial Banks (USD 3.5 million).

On the domestic front, major buying was reported by Individuals (USD 7.4 million) and Mutual Funds (USD 7.6 million). Average Volumes settled at 276 million shares (down by 41 percent WoW) while average value traded clocked-in at USD 67 million (down by 36 percent WoW).

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