Global merchandise trade performed stronger than expected in the first half of 2025, mainly due to booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) products, early import activity ahead of tariff hikes, and steady trade among emerging economies.
According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on October 7, global trade growth for 2025 has been revised upward to 2.4% from 0.9%. However, the outlook for 2026 is dimmer, with projections lowered to just 0.5%.
The WTO noted that the surge in AI-related goods—such as semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment—accounted for nearly half of total trade expansion during the first half of 2025. Strong disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, and economic growth in emerging markets also contributed to the momentum. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala praised the resilience of global trade, crediting countries’ measured response to tariffs and the strength of the rules-based multilateral trading system.
In North America, frontloading of imports before tariff implementation drove inventory build-ups across industries like machinery, vehicles, and construction materials. However, economists warned that as tariffs take effect and global growth cools, these early gains may unwind by 2026.
Key Trade Indicators
• World merchandise trade volume growth: 2.4% in 2025 (forecast), 0.5% in 2026
• Global GDP growth: 2.7% in 2025, 2.6% in 2026
• AI-related goods trade: Up 20% year-on-year in value terms
WTO economists cautioned that trade-restrictive measures, rising input prices, and policy uncertainty pose downside risks. Still, continuous innovation in AI and digital services could provide a medium-term boost to international trade.
Regionally, Asia and Africa are expected to lead export growth in 2025, while Europe and North America may experience slower expansion. Least-developed countries are projected to sustain robust export performance, though challenges remain for 2026.
Commercial services trade is also slowing, with growth forecast to ease from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Transport and travel sectors are expected to weaken, while digitally delivered services remain a bright spot.
Overall, WTO economists conclude that the momentum of 2025 may not fully carry into 2026 as global economic headwinds, tariff effects, and inventory adjustments begin to weigh on world trade.