Apple is on track to regain the top spot in global smartphone shipments after 14 years, according to new projections from Counterpoint Research.
The report suggests that Apple may ship over 243 million iPhones in 2025, securing an estimated 19.4% share of the worldwide smartphone market.
In comparison, Samsung—the long-standing leader—is expected to ship around 235 million devices, giving the company 18.7% market share and placing it behind Apple for the first time in over a decade.
The shift in rankings is largely driven by the outstanding success of the iPhone 17 series, which has outperformed its predecessor and contributed significantly to Apple’s shipment growth. During Q3, iPhone 17 series shipments increased by an impressive 9% year-over-year, demonstrating stronger market momentum compared to last year’s iPhone 16 lineup.
Early sales performance has also been exceptional. In the first four weeks following its launch in the United States, the iPhone 17 series recorded 12% higher demand than the previous generation. The momentum is even stronger in China, where demand surged 18% year-over-year during the same period. This improved traction in Apple’s key markets underscores the brand’s sustained global appeal and loyal user base.
Market analysts indicate that Apple is also benefiting from a favorable upgrade cycle. Many consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic are now due for replacements, and Apple appears to be capturing a significant portion of these upgrade purchases.
Looking ahead, industry forecasts suggest that Apple’s lead over Samsung is likely to widen. Cupertino is expected to maintain its position as the global smartphone shipment leader through 2029, supported by strong product demand, ecosystem growth, and consistent upgrade patterns.
Apple’s projected rise marks a major shift in global market dynamics—reinforcing the company’s dominance at a time when consumer preferences increasingly favor premium smartphones backed by robust software and hardware integration.