Author: Mrs. Anjum Shahnawaz

  • Increasing Credit Risk: monetary tightening may dent borrowers repayment capacity

    Increasing Credit Risk: monetary tightening may dent borrowers repayment capacity

    KARACHI: The monetary tightening stance of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) may dent repayment capacity of borrowers and may increase the credit risk.

    The SBP admitted in its Financial Stability Review (FSR) 2018 released on Thursday. The central bank said that the banking outlook depends a lot on the future economic prospects and the corresponding policy responses.

    “The monetary tightening towards the end of CY18 and first half of CY19 may lead to re-pricing of loans. This may improve the net interest income and, thus, profitability and solvency of the banking sector,” the SBP said, adding that on the other hand, it may dent the repayment capacity of the borrowers, thus, escalating the credit risk.

    SBP raised the policy rate by 325 bps post CY18 (until July 2019) to address macroeconomic challenges.

    The central bank said that though banks’ fresh loans are disbursed at a higher rate in response to monetary tightening, there still exists a significant portion of outstanding loans, which may be re-priced with some lag due to contractual bindings.

    The fact that major rise in policy rate has occurred towards the end of CY18 and beyond, the borrowers may face further hike in interest expense later on. This coupled with the lower corporate profitability may deteriorate the repayment capacity of borrowers and increase Non-Performing Loans (NPLs).

    “Generally, a lag of four to six quarters exists between the rise in interest rates and the subsequent buildup of NPLs.”

    Further, considering the contraction in LSM during July-March FY19 reflecting the dwindling performance of non-financial corporate sector, suggest that the odds of defaults are increasing.

    Further, any downgrade of a sizeable portion of NPLs parked under “doubtful” and “substandard” categories could raise the provisioning expense for the banks. “Thus, the credit risk remains paramount, going forward.”

    Besides implications arising from the realization of credit risk, the profitability of the banking sector depends upon the costs associated with mitigating the emerging operational risks and the interest rate dynamics.

    The mitigating measures against various risks such as compliance with AML/CFT related laws and regulations, fortifying systems against cyber-attacks, enhanced due diligence to ward-off fake/benami accounts, seeking legal remedies to manage challenges in overseas operations, etc. are all costly.

    The banks investment behavior in government securities and the interest earned there against are largely dependent on interest rate dynamics. Moreover, fiscal measures (such as super tax) has implications for the bank’s after-tax returns and solvency.

    In order to meet the growing financing demand of public and private sector, banks need to renew their focus on deposit mobilization. The sizeable rise in MSR may help in restoring the deposit growth, though.

    Like CY18, the enhanced CAR requirement (from current 11.9 percent to 12.5 percent) by the end of CY19, given slowdown in profitability, may compel banks may have to focus on raising capital through issuance of Basel III qualifying instruments.

    Banks, particularly small sized ones, will need to formulate concrete and time bound capital enhancement plans to meet their capital requirements.

    The strong NSFR and LCR of banks suggest that they will remain compliant with the Basel III liquidity requirements.

  • Bank holiday

    Bank holiday

    KARACHI: State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday announced bank holiday on account of Ashura on Muharram 9 and 10.

    The SBP will remain closed on 9th and 10th September, 2019 (Monday and Tuesday) being 9th & 10th Moharram-ul-Haram, 1441 A.H. on the occasion of Ashura.

    The SBP also announced to celebrate Defence Day and Kashmir Solidarity Day.

    The Government of Pakistan has decided to commemorate Friday, September 6, 2019 as “Defence Day” as well as “Kashmir Solidarity Day”.

    Accordingly, office hours on Friday, September 6, 2019 will be from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. to facilitate all employees to participate in the following activities:

    Commemorate the Defence Day of Pakistan;
    Observe Solidarity with the people of Kashmir; and

    Visit families of Martyrs (Shuhada) and monuments.

  • Foreign exchange reserves flat at $15.619 billion

    Foreign exchange reserves flat at $15.619 billion

    KARACHI – The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported a marginal shift in the country’s liquid foreign exchange reserves, indicating stability in the economic landscape.

    (more…)
  • Stock market ends flat on mixed trading

    Stock market ends flat on mixed trading

    KARACHI: The stock market ended flat on Thursday in a mixed trading session. The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 30,215 points as against 30,244 points showing a decline of 30 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited expressed the market started as a sign of recovery turned out to be a short lived spike.

    DGKC and MLCF that started the day on a positive note and saw upper circuit (DGKC) and close to upper circuit trades (MLCF), price came down sharply in the end, due to rumour of Rights issue by both companies.

    Similarly, Steel sector scrips also showed positive trend in the beginning but closed in red in the end.

    E&P sector barely sustained yesterday’s stride and closed at almost same rate as yesterday.

    Besides, POL opened today Ex-Dividend and spiked due to buying activity, however, the end of session again saw it trading below opening rate.

    Banks, Auto & O&GMC sectors also contributed to the slide in Index. Cement sector realized the most volume with 36.1 million shares, followed by Technology (21.3 million) and Chemical (15.6 million).

    Among scrips, MLCF topped the chart with 17.2 million shares followed by WTL (12.9 million) and LOTCHEM (10.4 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Power (+43 points), E&P (+29 points), Banks (+17 points), Fertilizer (-37 points), Cement (-33 points) and O&GMCs (-15 points).

    Volumes increased from 128.9 million shares to 146.5 million shares (+14 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased from US$ 31.3 million to US$ 32.6 million (+4 percent DoD).

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include MLCF, WTL, LOTCHEM, PAEL and UNITY, which formed 37 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include HUBC (+45 points), HBL (+38 points), PPL (+15 points), ABL (+13 points) and OGDC (+13 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include MCB (-36 points), ENGRO (-33 points), UBL (-26 points), NESTLE (-15 points), and LUCK (-12 points).

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  • Rupee ends down on coming holidays

    Rupee ends down on coming holidays

    KARACHI: The Pak Rupee ended down by 15 paisas against dollar on Thursday owing to higher demand due to upcoming long holidays including weekly and on account of Ashura e Muharram.

    The rupee ended Rs156.38 to the dollar from previous day’s closing of Rs156.23 in interbank foreign exchange market.

    Currency experts said that weekly holidays of Saturday and Sunday besides Monday and Tuesday for Muharram 9 and 10 kept pressure on the local unit.

    The foreign currency market was initiated in the range of Rs156.40 and Rs156.50. The market recorded day high of Rs156.44 and low of Rs156.20 and closed at Rs156.38.

    The exchange rate in open market however witnessed appreciation in rupee value.

    The buying and selling of dollar was recorded at Rs156.00/Rs156.50 from previous day’s closing of Rs156.10/Rs156.60 in interbank foreign exchange market.

  • Procedure to get income tax registration for return filing

    Procedure to get income tax registration for return filing

    KARACHI: The income tax return filing by salaried persons, business individuals and Association of Persons (AOPs) is due on September 30, 2019. In order to file return one should get income tax registration.

    Following is the procedure for obtaining income tax registration as issued by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).

    The first step of filing your Income Tax Return is to register yourself with Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).

    For Income Tax Registration Individual can register online through Iris Portal

    Whereas, the principal officer of AOP and Company needs to visit Regional Tax Office (RTO)

    Taxpayer Registration basics

    Some important facts about Registration

    An individual, a company and an association of persons (AOP) or foreign national shall be treated as registered, when they are e-enrolled on the Iris portal.

    E-Enrollment with FBR provides you with a National Tax Number (NTN) or Registration Number and password.

    In case of individuals, 13 digits Computerized National Identity Card (CNIC) will be used as NTN or Registration Number.

    NTN or Registration Number for AOP and Company is the 7 digits NTN received after e-enrollment.

    These credentials allow access to Iris portal, the online Income Tax system, which is only way through which online Income Tax Return can be filed.

    Requirements before Registration

    An individual needs to ensure that the following information is available before starting e-enrollment.

    Requirements of e-enrollment for an individual are as follows:

    CNIC/NICOP/Passport number

    Cell phone number in use

    Active e-mail address

    Nationality

    Residential address

    Accounting period

    In case of business income

    business name

    business address

    Principal business activity

    Name and NTN of employer in case of salary income

    Address of property in case of property income

    Principal Officer of Company and AOP needs to ensure that the following information is available before starting e-enrollment

    Following particulars are required for registration:

    Name of company or AOP

    Business name

    Business address

    Accounting period

    Business phone number

    E-mail address

    Cell phone number of principal officer of the company or AOP

    Principal business activity

    Address of industrial establishment or principal place of business

    Company type, like public limited, private limited, unit trust, trust, NGO, society, small company, modaraba or any other

    Date of registration

    Incorporation certificate by Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) in case of company

    Registration certificate and partnership deed in case of registered firm

    Partnership deed in case firm is not registered

    Trust deed in case of trust

    Registration certificate in case of society

    Name of representative with his CNIC or NTN

    Following particulars of every director and major shareholder having 10% or more shares in case of company or partners in case of an AOP, namely:-

    Name

    CNIC/NTN/Passport and

    Share %

    Requirements for Registration of Non-Resident Company having permanent establishment in Pakistan shall furnish the following particulars:

    Name of company

    Business address

    Accounting period

    Phone number of business

    Principal business activity

    Address of principal place of business

    Registration number and date of the branch with the Securities and Exchange

    Commission of Pakistan (SECP)

    Name and address of principal officer or authorized representative of the company

    Authority letter for appointment of principal officer or authorized representative of the company

    Cell phone number of principal officer or authorized representative of the company and

    Email address of principal officer or authorized representative of the company

    Non-Resident Company not having permanent establishment in Pakistan shall furnish the following particulars:

    Name of company

    Business address in the foreign country

    Name and nationality of directors or trustees of the company

    Accounting period

    Name and address of authorized representative of the company

    Authority letter for appointment of authorized representative of the company

    Cell phone number of authorized representative of the company

    Email address of authorized representative of the company

    Principal business activity and

    Tax Registration or incorporation document from concerned regulatory authorities of the foreign country

    Registration process

    Online Registration

    Online registration is available only for:

    Individual and not for Association of Person or Company;

    Before starting online registration, the Taxpayer must have:

    Read User Guide;

    A computer, scanner and internet connection;

    A cell phone with SIM registered against their own CNIC;

    A personal email address belonging to them;

    Scanned pdf files of:

    Certificate of maintenance of personal bank account in his own name;

    Evidence of tenancy / ownership of business premises, if having a business;

    Paid utility bill of business premises not older than 3 months, if having a business.

    Online registration is available at Iris

    Registration at Facilitation Counters of Tax Houses

    Registration at Facilitation Counters of Tax Houses is available for all:

    Individual, Association of Person and Company;

    Income Tax and Sales Tax;

    For Registration of an Individual, the Individual must:

    Personally go to any Facilitation Counter of any Tax House;

    Take the following documents with him:

    Original CNIC;

    Cell phone with SIM registered against his own CNIC;

    Personal Email address belonging to him;

    Original certificate of maintenance of personal bank account in his own name;

    Original evidence of tenancy / ownership of business premises, if having a business;

    Original paid utility bill of business premises not older than 3 months, if having a business.

    For Registration of an AOP, anyone of the Members / Partners must:

    Personally go to any Facilitation Counter of any Tax House

    Take the following documents with him:

    Original partnership deed, in case of Firm;

    Original registration certificate from Registrar of Firms, in case of Firm.

    CNICs of all Members / Partners;

    Original letter on letterhead of the AOP signed by all Members / Partners, authorizing anyone of the Members / Partners for Income / Sales Tax Registration;

    Cell phone with SIM registered against his own CNIC but not already registered with the FBR;

    Email address belonging to the AOP;

    Original certificate of maintenance of bank account in AOP’s name;

    Original evidence of tenancy / ownership of business premises, if having a business;

    Original paid utility bill of business premises not older than 3 months, if having a business.

    For Registration of a Company, the Principal Officer must:

    Personally go to any Facilitation Counter of any Tax House

    Take the following document with him:

    Incorporation Certificate of the Company;

    CNICs of all Directors;

    Original letter on letterhead of the company signed by all Directors, verifying the Principal Officer and authorizing him for Income Tax / Sales Tax Registration;

    Cell phone with SIM registered against his own CNIC but not already registered with the FBR;

    Email address belonging to the Company;

    Original certificate of maintenance of bank account in Company’s name;

    Original evidence of tenancy / ownership of business premises, if having a business;

    Original paid utility bill of business premises not older than 3 months, if having a business.

    Modification of Income Tax Registration

    Income Tax Registration of a person can be modified after discovering any change or omission in any information, particulars, data or documents associated with the registration of the person.

    Person would have to file a modification form of registration in Iris to change the relevant particulars.

    The Commissioner will grant or refuse the requested modification of the person after examining the modification form of registration and making any inquiry deemed necessary.

    Person can within thirty (30) days of the decision regarding modification file a representation before the Chief Commissioner.

    Chief Commissioner will decide on the merits of the representation filed.

  • Stock market holiday notice

    Stock market holiday notice

    KARACHI: Pakistan Stock Exchange Limited (PSX) will remain closed for two days i.e. September 9 – 10, 2019 on account of Ashura 9th and 10th Muharram.

    A notice issued by the PSX on Wednesday informing all the TRE Certificate Holders, staff and concerned that PSX will remain closed on Monday, September 9, 2019 and Tuesday, September 10, 2019 on account of Ashura 9th and 10th of Muharram, 1441 AH.

  • Rebasing lowers average inflation for July-August

    Rebasing lowers average inflation for July-August

    ISLAMABAD: The average headline inflation i.e. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was calculated at 9.44 for the months of July and August, 2019 on the basis of revised base year, a statement said on Wednesday.

    Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) revised base year for calculating Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2007-2008 to 2015-2016.

    The CPI on new base (2015-16) comprises of urban CPI and Rural CPI. The Urban CPI covers 35 cities and 356 consumer items. The Rural CPI covers 27 Rural Centers and 244 consumer items. In the new base year (2015-16) National CPI for 12 major groups is also computed by taking weighted average of Urban CPI and Rural CPI.

    According to the PBS, the inflation rate for August 2019 over July 2019 as per base year 2007-2008 is 1.3 percent and 1.64 percent as per base year 2016-2016.

    The inflation rate for August 2019 over August 2018 is at 11.63 percent as per base year 2007-2008 and 10.49 percent as per base year 2015-2016.

    The average inflation rate for July – August 2019 over the same period of last year is 10.98 percent as per base year 2007-2008 and 9.44 percent as per base year 2015/2016.

    The CPI National with base year (2015-16) for the month of August, 2019 has increased by 1.64 percent over July, 2019. The Urban CPI with base year (2015-16) recorded an increase of 1.46 percent while Rural CPI with base year (2015-16) recorded an increase of 1.91 percent. CPI with old base year (2007-08) recorded an increase of 1.38 percent.

    Top few commodities which varied from previous month i.e. July, 2019 are given below:

    URBAN:

    Increased: Chicken (40.75 percent), Tomatoes(37.47 percent), Onions(32.31 percent), Fresh vegetables(12.84 percent), Eggs (9.76 percent), Potatoes(6.21 percent), Cooking oil(4.68 percent), Vegetable ghee(4.18 percent), Motor fuel(3.88 percent), Sugar(3.78 percent), Pulse masoor(2.54 percent), Mustard oil(1.75 percent), Pulse gram(1.44 percent), Wheat flour (1.29 percent) and Pulse mash(1.01 percent).

    Decreased: Fresh fruits(15.64 percent), Liquified Hydrocarbons (LPG) (5.19 percent), and Wheat(0.3 percent).

    RURAL:

    Increased: Tomatoes(35.4 percent), Onions(28.49 percent), Chicken(26.56 percent), Potatoes(18.18 percent), Fresh Vegetables(10.96 percent), Eggs(9.79 percent), Sugar(5.21 percent), Doctor Clinic Fee (4.74 percent), Motor Fuels (4.21 percent), Cooking oil(3.22 percent), Pulse Moong(2.81 percent), Vegetable ghee(2.51 percent), Pulse Mash(2.35 percent) and Milk powder(1.85 percent).

    Decreased: Fresh fruits(20.6 percent), Fish(2.8 percent), Beans(1.72 percent) and Wheat(0.32 percent).

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  • Simplified tax regime for non-residents approved: Dr. Hafeez Shaikh

    Simplified tax regime for non-residents approved: Dr. Hafeez Shaikh

    ISLAMABAD: The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) on Wednesday approved a simplified tax regime to facilitate the non-resident companies for investment in the local capital market.

    Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance said that the ECC had approved a simplified tax regime to facilitate the non-resident companies for investment in the local capital market.

    Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh said that these incentives will increase the foreign exchange inflows and reserves of the country.

    A statement issued after the ECC meeting stated that the meeting has approved separate proposals for simplification of tax regime for non-resident companies investing in the local debt market, revision of cess rate on tobacco for the year 2019-2020 and payment of outstanding amount of Rs 5.85 billion as gas subsidy to the fertilizer industry.

    The approvals were given at a meeting of the ECC which met here at the Cabinet Block with Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance & Revenue Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh in the chair.

    The ECC was also briefed on the wheat situation in the country and it was pointed out that while prices were stable in most parts of the country, there were certain areas and places such as Karachi where the wheat and flour prices had escalated.

    The ECC directed the Ministry of National Food Security and Research to sit down with all stakeholders and ensure that the situation does not get out of hands and supply of wheat and flour at regular prices is ensured.

    The ECC also considered a proposal by the Ministry of Energy for application of quarterly adjustment notified on 1st July 2019 to the zero rated industrial consumers and for it to be charged over and above the notified tariff for zero rated industrial consumers at 7.5 cents as well as a proposal to the effect that Financial Cost Surcharge, Neelum Jhelum Surcharge, taxes and positive fuel adjustments would not be part of billing to zero rated sector industrial consumers and would be part of subsidy claims to be picked by the Government of Pakistan.

    The Committee discussed the pros and cons of the proposal in view of its financial implications and asked the Finance Division to hold a meeting with the stakeholders, including the Power Division, Commerce Division and Industries & Production Division and resubmit the case to ECC with solid proposals.

    The ECC also approved proposals submitted by the Ministry of Finance for simplification of tax regime for non-resident companies investing in the local debt market with a view to deepening the country’s capital markets, reducing the cost of debt for the government and increasing foreign exchange inflows and reserves.

    The new tax regime as approved by the ECC would apply to the non-resident companies having no permanent presence in Pakistan.

    The ECC also took up a proposal for extension and rehabilitation of gas network in the oil and gas producing districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and referred the matter to the Development Working Party headed by the Secretary Petroleum for an appropriate decision.

  • Stock market gains 435 points on lower inflation numbers

    Stock market gains 435 points on lower inflation numbers

    KARACHI: The stock market gained 435 points on Wednesday owing to lower than anticipated inflation numbers.

    The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 30,244 points as against 29,810 points showing an increase of 435 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data proved to be required stimulus that the investors were waiting for.

    Latest release of CPI indicates a lower than anticipated reading and gave confidence to the view that SBP will likely consider revising down the policy rate.

    Buying activity was observed almost across the board with the exception of banking sector scrips, which kept the blue chips in banking sector universe in red and the main reason behind -342 points earlier in the session.

    In totality, the index spiked by 568 points by close of session and ended at +557 points (unadjusted). Cement sector led the upsurge in index, which was supported by O&GMCs and E&P sectors where OGDC and PPL also hit upper circuit.

    Sectors that led the volumes table included Cement (29.2 million), Banks (18 million) and Technology (13.5 million). Among scrips, MLCF (11.4 million), FCCL (9.9 million) and UNITY (9.4 million) contributed to the performance.

    Sectors contributing to the performance include E&P (+148 points), Cement (+81 points), Fertilizer (+56 points), O&GMCs (+46 points), Power (+20 points), Banks (-33 points).

    Volumes doubled from 64 million shares to 128.7 million shares (+101 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 100 percent DoD to reach US$ 31.2 million as against US$ 15.6 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include MLCF, FCCL, UNITY, WTL and LOTCHEM, which formed 35 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include ENGRO (+61 points), OGDC (+56 points), PPL (+54 points), LUCK (+46 points) and MCB (+39 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include BAHL (-38 points), MEBL (-25 points), FFC (-17 points), NBP (-7 points), and HBL (-7 points).

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