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KARACHI: The liquid foreign exchange reserves of the country slipped by $476 million to $23.55 billion by the week ended November 12, 2021, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
The foreign exchange reserves of the country were at $24.026 billion by the week ended November 05, 2021.
The official reserves of the SBP also fell by $381 million to $16.945 billion by the week ended November 12, 2021, as compared with $17.326 billion a week ago.
The foreign exchange reserves maintained by commercial banks also declined by $95 million to $6.605 billion by the week ended November 12, 2021, as compared with $6.7 billion a week ago.
Miftah Ismail, Former Federal Minister for Finance, has pointed out key reasons behind the massive depreciation in Pak Rupee (PKR) against the dollar.
Ismail, who is also General Secretary of PML-N Sindh, in his Tweet on Sundh pointed out a thread on the four main reasons for the recent precipitous decline in the value of the rupee.
A: Uncertainty about the renewal of the IMF program
B: Largest trade deficit and fastest-growing imports in history
C: Fourth highest inflation rates among major countries.
D: Rapid increase in the money supply.
Ismail explained that uncertainty about the renewal of the IMF program behind the rupee weakness.
The former finance minister said: “Our program was ‘revived’ earlier this year and we were supposed to get a $1 billion tranche in July 2021. We are now in November and still, there isn’t an agreement. This is giving markets jitters.”
In his opinion largest trade deficit and fastest-growing imports are the second major reason for the rupee fall.
“We are on track for imports of $75 billion or over 24 per cent of the GDP. Both these are the highest in history. This year exports will cover only 37 per cent of imports, down from 44 per cent in 2018. We are moving in the wrong direction.”
Our trade deficit in on track to be $47 billion or 15 per cent of the GDP. Again both numbers are highest in the history. Current account deficit will be around 5 per cent of the GDP. But for the healthy remittances due to decreased travel etc. we would have recorded the second-highest current account deficit
The former finance minister said that in our history, after the one of 8.1 per cent in 2007/2008, the last year of Gen. Musharraf. The increased net demand of dollars from foreign trade is thus putting pressure on the Pak rupee. “Until we slow down imports or increase exports, the rupee will continue to be under pressure.”
Another reason highlighted by the former finance minister is the highest inflation rates among major countries.
A recent issue of The Economist showed that Pak has the fourth-highest inflation among major counties, two of whom we don’t even have much trade with. “We also have the highest inflation in South Asia.”
Given that our inflation is more than our trading partners, our exports goods become more expensive and import goods become cheaper. This increases our real effective exchange rate and puts pressure on the rupee.
Miftah Ismail continued that our money supply has grown from Rs 4.7 trillion to Rs 7 trillion, an increase of 49 per cent.
Dr Hafeez Pasha estimates that a 1 per cent increase in money forces a 0.6 per cent rise in inflation. The primary cause of money supply increase is record-high government budget deficits.
“There are other reasons for the continuous devaluation, political uncertainty for one, but these four —-interlinked as they are— I think are the major reasons.”
Federal Minister for Energy Hammad Azhar in his tweet replied to Miftah Ismail saying: “I thought Miftah sahib was reminiscing about PML-N’s economy. Back then they managed to create such conditions without Covid shocks. The truth is that trade deficit now has risen due to price effect (same goods but more $ outflow due to high prices) rather than volume effect.”
KARACHI: Pakistani workers living abroad have sent $2.52 billion as remittances to their homeland in the month of October 2021, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Sunday.
The SBP said that the workers’ remittances continued their strong streak as inflows recorded $2.5 billion in October 2021, up 10.2 percent (y/y) and only marginally lower compared to last month (5.7 percent).
In addition to remaining above $2 billion since June 2020, this is the eighth consecutive month when remittances have been close to or above $2.5 billion.
On a cumulative basis, remittances have risen to $10.6 billion during the first four months of FY22 (July-October 2021), which is 11.9% higher than the same period last year.
Remittance inflows during the first four months of FY22 have mainly been sourced from Saudi Arabia ($ 2.7 billion), UAE ($ 2.0 billion), UK ($ 1.5 billion) and USA ($ 1.1 billion).
Proactive policy measures by the Government and SBP to incentivize the use of formal channels and altruistic transfers to Pakistan amid the pandemic have positively contributed towards the sustained improvement in remittance inflows since last year.
ISLAMABAD: The inflation based on Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) has recorded 17.37 per cent increase Year on Year (YoY) by week ended November 11, 2021, said Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday.
The SPI is computed on weekly basis to assess the price movements of essential commodities at shorter interval of time so as to review the price situation in the country.
SPI comprises of 51 essential items collected from 50 markets in 17 cities of the country.
Analysts said that the SPI inflation is 37-week high level.
The year on year trend depicts increase of 17.37 per cent, LPG (74.70 per cent), Electricity for Q1 (75.32 per cent), LPG (74.82 per cent), Mustard Oil (54.71 per cent), Vegetable Ghee 1 Kg (53.29 per cent), Cooking Oil 5 litre (49.24 per cent), Vegetable Ghee 2.5 Kg (48.27 per cent), Petrol (41.94 per cent) and Diesel (37.78 per cent)
The major item that witnessed decrease in prices YoY basis are included: decrease observed in the prices of Onions (40.40 per cent), Pulse Moong (30.50 per cent), Potatoes (19.64 per cent), Sugar (2.22 per cent) and Pulse Mash (1.50 per cent).
The SPI for the current week ended on November 11, 2021 recorded an increase of 1.81 per cent over the previous week. Increase in the prices of Tomatoes (18.70 per cent), Diesel (6.04 per cent), Petrol (5.78 per cent), Cooking Oil 5 litre (4.27 per cent), Vegetable Ghee 2.5 kg (3.37 per cent), Vegetable Ghee 1kg (3.28 per cent), Banana (3.04 per cent), Bread (2.84 per cent), Electricity for Q1 (2.74 per cent), Eggs (1.82 per cent), Potatoes (1.77 per cent), Washing Soap (1.58 per cent), Onions (1.51 per cent), Energy Saver (1.30 per cent) and Mustard Oil (1.21 per cent) was observed with joint impact of (1.61 per cent) into the overall SPI for combined group of (1.81 per cent).
On the other hand, decrease observed in the prices of Sugar (9.35 per cent), Pulse Mash (0.45 per cent), Pulse Moong (0.42 per cent), Pulse Gram (0.29 per cent), Wheat Flour Bag (0.26 per cent) and Garlic (0.04 per cent).
During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 30 (58.82 per cent) items increased 06 (11.76 per cent) items decreased and 15 (29.42 per cent) items remained stable.
The analysts said that looking at the trend of SPI inflation, the headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely to enter double digit in November 2021. The average inflation for the current fiscal year could be in double digit as well, they added.
ISLAMABAD: Saudi Arabia will disburse cash deposits to Pakistan under assistance package pledged on October 26, 2021, Saudi diplomat said on Thursday.
While talking to the Pakistan’s state media Saudi Ambassador Nawaf Bin Said Al-Malki said Saudi Arabia will disburse cash deposits under the pledged financial assistance after approval of the Royal Court and signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in a few days.
“This will be soon InshaAllah. There will be the agreement from the Royal Court and the MoU will be signed in a few days for the payment, and also for the deferred oil payment [facility],” the Saudi envoy said in an exclusive interview with APP, during his visit to the headquarters.
Saudi Arabia had recently announced to provide Pakistan $3 billion as a cash deposit with the State Bank to address its balance-of-payments crisis. Also, the Kingdom had pledged a one-year deferred payment facility for the import of oil, worth up to another $1.2 billion.
Ambassador Al-Malki said the government of Saudi Arabia considered Pakistan as “a dear country” with a very deep and strong relationship.
He said Saudia Arabia always stood with Pakistan and extended support to it on multiple occasions, adding that the relationship with Pakistan was regardless of any government in power.
“Our connection is with the Pakistani flag and we consider it our brotherly country,” he said, adding that he saw a “very bright future of Pakistan”.
The Saudi ambassador mentioned the camaraderie between the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Prime Minister Imran Khan and expressed confidence that the relationship would strengthen in the future.
In three years, the six visits of PM Imran Khan to the Kingdom reflect the level of relationship, he added.
The Saudi envoy said Pakistani people loved the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from the core of their hearts and held in high esteem the Custodian of the holy mosques.
KARACHI: Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have increased by $100 million to $24.026 billion by the week ended November 05, 2021, as compared with $23.926 billion a week ago, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
The official foreign exchange reserves of the central bank increased by $126 million to $17.326 billion by the week ended November 05, 2021when compared with $17.2 billion a week ago.
Meanwhile, the foreign exchange reserves held by the commercial banks fell by $26 million to $6.7 billion by week ended November 05, 2021 as compared with $6.726 billion a week ago
In this regard a financing agreement amounting to $761.5 million has been signed between the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Government of Pakistan and International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) for import of crude oil, refined petroleum products and LNG etc.
The financing agreement was signed by Mian Asad Hayaud Din, Secretary, EAD and Eng. Hani Salem Sonbol, CEO, ITFC. The facility has been made effective immediately and ready for utilization by Pakistan State Oil Company Ltd (PSO), Pak Arab Refinery Ltd (PARCO) and Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL) for import of oil and gas.
This Syndicated Murabaha Financing facility of $ 761.5 million is for a period of one year and is a part of umbrella Framework Agreement signed with ITFC in June 2021 for total envelop of $ 4.5 billion ($ 1.5 million annually) for a period of three-years.
Originally, ITFC had agreed to provide the financing of US$ 300 million. However, due to growing energy needs of the country and enhanced confidence level of international financial institutions on economic reforms and recovery amid COVID-19 pandemic, the financing was over-subscribed by 2.5 times i.e. from $ 300 million to from $ 761.5 million.
The financing facility will also be helpful in financing oil and gas import bill of the country and easing of pressure on foreign exchange reserves of the country.
Mian Asad Hayaud Din, Secretary, EAD appreciated the support for ITFc for arranging US$ 761.5 million for trade financing. He lauded the efforts of Eng. Hani Salem Sonbol, CEO, ITFC and his team for making this transaction successful.
The ITFC and GOP have also agreed to continue their cooperation in future to mobilize financial resources to support Pakistan in its endeavours to achieve its economic growth targets through ITFC financing facility.
KARACHI: Pakistan’s fiscal balance in the outgoing first quarter of 2021/2022 posted a deficit of PKR 438 billion, -9.5 per cent YoY lower than prior year’s deficit, according to data released by the finance ministry on Tuesday.
In terms of per cent GDP, the deficit arrived at 0.8 per cent in 1QFY22 compared to 1.1 per cent recorded in 1QFY21 (PKR 484 billion), said analysts at Arif Habib Limited.
However, the primary surplus during the period stood at PKR 184 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP in 1QFY22) , down 29 per cent YoY, compared to a primary surplus of PKR 258 billion witnessed same period last year (0.6 per cent of GDP).
Primarily, total revenue growth of 22 per cent in 1QFY22 to PKR 1.8 trillion (1QFY21: PKR 1.5 trillion) aided the fiscal balance, translating into 3.4 per cent of GDP vs. 3.2 per cent same period last year.
The total tax revenue collection was up by 37 per cent YoY to PKR 1.5 trillion. Indirect taxes (+42 per cent YoY to PKR 917 billion) mainly on the back of higher sales tax (+43 per cent YoY to PKR 264 billion), and direct taxes (+32 per cent YoY to PKR 481 billion amid higher number of tax payers), contributed to the overall collection.
In addition, the government collected PKR 276 billion in non-tax revenues, displaying a decline of 23 per cent YoY. This was particularly owed to lower Petroleum Levy (-90 per cent YoY | PKR 13 billion). On the flipside, the surplus profit of State Bank of Pakistan and Pakistan Telecommunication Authority increased during 1QFY22 to PKR 109 billion (+4 per cent YoY) and PKR 30 billion (+269 per cent YoY), respectively.
In addition, total expenditures went up by 14 per cent YoY to PKR 2.3 trillion (4.2 per cent of GDP vs. 4.3 per cent of GDP in 1QFY21).
Further breakup revealed that current expenditure underwent an uptick of 9 per cent YoY of which defence rose by 17 per cent YoY.
However, the markup expenses went down by 16 per cent YoY to PKR 623 billion. Moreover, development expenditure and net lending undertaken by the government increased by 38 per cent YoY to PKR 180 billion.
Total PSDP expenditure in 1QFY22 arrived at PKR 262 billion (+63 per cent YoY) with provincial expenditure at PKR 154 billion (+71 per cent YoY), outdoing federal disbursement of PKR 108 billion (+53 per cent YoY).
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Imran Khan on Monday said that currently inflation is the core issue in Pakistan. The prime minister said that due to recent inflationary trend in international commodity market, inflation is the core issue in Pakistan currently.
“We are working hard to ensure effective monitoring of prices of essential commodities through good governance and better price control mechanism.”
Ensuring a proper control on supply chain, effective price enforcement and a strict check on hoarding are being made more effective for this purpose, he added.
The prime minister directed the authorities concerned to take all necessary measures to provide maximum relief to common man by making the Market Committees at district and tehsil levels more effective.
Earlier the Prime Minister was apprised that a successful pilot project was launched in Rawalpindi/Islamabad by PTIs Good Governance Team which resulted in substantial drop in prices of essential commodities by ensuring strict enforcement of Government notified rates.
The prime minister was also informed that stay orders secured by the ineffective market committees need to be vacated at the earliest to reconstitute robust price monitoring mechanism at district and tehsil levels.
The meeting was attended by Advisor on Finance Shaukat Fayyaz Tarin, Senator Saifullah Niazi and other officers concerned.
KARACHI: The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has declined sharply to 70.8 points in the third quarter of 2021, compared to 88.0 points in the second quarter of 2021, translating into 19.6 per cent decrease.
