Category: Stock & Commodity

KARACHI: The share market likely to move in green over million doses expected to be purchased from China within the ongoing quarter and subsequent distribution, dampening in COVID-19 concerns may fuel the market pack.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that bull run energy stocks to roll over next week and keep interest in the bourse alive.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is currently trading at a PER of 7.6x (2021) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 15.9x and while offering DY of around 6.1 percent versus around 2.4 percent offered by the region.

While nervousness ruled market sentiment in the earlier part of the week with 3 cases of the new found coronavirus strain in Pakistan as well as profit taking by institutional investors, the equity bourse quickly posted a rebound amid extension in the Prime Ministers construction package to December 31, 2021.

We also highlight that potential partial resolution of the circular debt with installment due to IPP’s within Jan’21 aided market momentum. That said, the benchmark KSE-100 index breached the 44k level and closed at 44,435 points, up by 2.34 percent / 1018 points.

Sector-wise positive contributions came from i) Banks (342 points), ii) Fertilizers (231 points), and iii) Oil & Gas Exploration (202 points) while Power Generation & Distribution declined 37 points. Scrip-wise positive contributions were led by OGDC (112 points), FFC (95 points), MEBL (68 points), ENGRO (64 points), and PSO (63 points). HUBC and KOHC led the negative contributions, declining 43 and 15 points respectively.

Foreign selling continued this week clocking-in at USD 46.22 million compared to a net sell of USD 20.44 million last week.

Selling was witnessed in All other sectors (USD 46.14 million) and Technology (USD 0.95 million). On the domestic front, major buying was reported by Companies (USD 41.09 million and Individual (USD 20.04 million).

That said, average daily volumes and traded value for the outgoing week were up by 4 percent and 3 percent to 528 million shares and USD 142 million, respectively.

KARACHI: The share market on Friday welcomed the New Year with a bull run by gaining 678 points on the back of date extension to an amnesty for construction industry and hopes of resolution of debt circular.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 44.435 points as compared with previous day’s close of 43,755 points, showing an increase of 678 points.

Analysts at Topline Securities said that bulls dominated the benchmark KSE-100 index on first trading session of the year, as the index gained to make an intraday high of 1,119 points.

This positivity in the market can be attributed to sources that suggested that IPPs and government have in principle come to an agreement to clear outstanding backlog of circular debt.

Resultantly IPPs, E&Ps and Oil and Gas Marketing sector (all part of the energy chain) lead the rally in market.

Other analysts said that the market responded positively to the announcement of the government to extend the date for the amnesty up to June 30, 2021 for no question on investment made for housing projects.

Some intraday profit taking was observed during the latter part of second trading session, as the index finally settled at 44,435 level (up by 1.55 percent).

Major contribution to the index came from HUBC, OGDC, PPL, PSO and UBL, as they cumulatively contributed 465 points to the index. Traded volume and value for the day stood at 641 million shares and Rs.27.2 billion respectively. POWER was today`s volume lead with 35.8 million shares.

KARACHI: The stock market ended with a gain of 60 points on Thursday amid profit booking seen on the last day of the year 2020.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 43,755 points as against previous day’s close of 43,695 points showing an increase of 60 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market opened on a positive note on the last trading day of CY20, adding a total of 195 points during the session and closing +96 points (unadjusted).

On an annual basis, the benchmark index returned around 7 percent and highest closing since 2016.

Institutional investors resorted to mark to market activity besides booking profit on positions taken earlier to improve half year and full year financial results.

Cement sector took cue from extension of Real Estate Amnesty Scheme by the Prime Minister, which would eventually help Cement and Steel Sector listed companies.

Among scrips, PRL topped the volumes with 41.4 million shares, followed by SILK (38.5 million) and FFBL (36.7 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Cement (+61 points), Power (+39 points), Fertilizer (+12 points), Banks (-18 points) and Insurance (-9 points).

Volumes increased from 455.9 million shares to 578.2 million shares (+27 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 5 percent to reach US$ 148.8 million as against US$ 141.8 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include PRL, SILK, FFBL, TRG and PIBTL, which formed 32 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively to the index include HUBC (+37 points), UBL (+18 points), LUCK (+16 points), MLCF (+16 points) and MCB (+15 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include BAHL (-28 points), MEBL (-18 points), NESTLE (-9 points), ENGRO (-8 points) and PSO (-7 points).

KARACHI: The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has posted 7.3 percent growth during the year 2020 as one day is still remaining to conclude the year.

Analysts at Topline Securities on Wednesday said that Pakistan benchmark KSE100 index gained 7.3 percent (USD: 3.6 percent) in 2020 (one trading session left). The return in USD terms during 2020 is better than -1.8 percent of 2019, however lower than the last ten year average of 10 percent.

“The year 2020 was a story of two halves for Pakistan equities as the first half witnessed a decline of 15.5 percent (USD: -22 percent), while a robust recovery was seen in the second half as the benchmark index recovered by 26.9 percent (USD 33.1 percent). Just like peers, PSX rallied 60.5 percent from its bottom on Mar 25, 2020.”

Interestingly, despite lower broader market return, few mid cap stocks have posted a billion normal returns (adjusted) namely TRG (up 270 percent), SYS (up 242 percent), PIOC (up 234 percent) and CEPB (up 200 percent).

Pakistan under performed MSCI Emerging Market and MSCI World indices. However, against MSCI Frontier Market, PSX outperformed as MSCI FM declined by 4 percent.

During 2020, Pak Equities gain of 7.3 percent was also lower than Gold and PIBs return of 28 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

Activity at PSX increased significantly, due to a rally in mid-caps led by local investors. Traded volume and value in 2020 was 328 million shares/day and Rs12 billion (US$75 million)/day, respectively.

The analysts said that KSE-100 may touch 52.5,000 mark in 2021 due to strong corporate earnings growth along with re-rating. Four key triggers to watch out for during 2021 will be (1) COVID-19, (2) IMF, (3) foreigners activity and (4) politics.

KSE-100 Index under performed its peers and global benchmarks during 2020.

The benchmark index posted a US Dollar return of 4 percent compared to MSCI Emerging Market return of 12 percent and MSCI Developed and World Market return of 13 percent.

However, PSX outperformed MSCI Frontier Markets as its value declined by 4 percent.

The benchmark index also under performed its peer countries with Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka amongst top markets during 2020 (refer to below).

Overall traded volume (ready/cash) at PSX averaged at 328 million shares/day (+107 percent YoY) in 2020, highest after 15 years.

Similarly, traded value also increased to an average of Rs12 billion/day (or US$75 million/day), up 106 percent from 2019 and most after 12 years.

In the futures market, PSX volumes were also at a 15 year high of 101 million shares/ day. Similarly, traded value in futures is at a 12 year high of Rs4.7 billion/day (or US$29 million/day).

Most activity, in terms of average volumes, was witnessed in small and mid cap stocks like HASCOL (21 million shares/day), UNITY (20 million shares/day), TRG (16 million shares/day),MLCF (15 million shares/day) and KEL (13 million shares/day).

In value terms, the most activity was seen in TRG with an average value of Rs746 million/day, LUCK (Rs564 million/day), MLCF (Rs481 million/day), DGKC (Rs474 million/day), and PPL (Rs368 million/day).

Amongst market participants, share of individuals in total activity increased from 60 percent to 63 percent while foreigners share dropped from10 percent to 7 percent in 2020.

Settlement Ratio (UIN) during 2020 dropped to an average of 56.6 percent from 60.9 percent in 2019. Leverage to Market capitalization increased to 0.26 percent compared to 0.18 percent in 2019.

Foreigners continued to remain sellers to the tune of US$570 million, highest in more than a decade. Cumulative selling in the last six years has amounted to US$2.2 billion.

This non stop selling could be attributed to closure of few frontier market funds, under performance of Emerging and Frontier markets and negligible weight of PSX in MSCI Emerging Market

Highest foreign selling was witnessed in the Banking sector with a net outflow of US$176 million followed by E&Ps (US$125 million) and Cements (US$107 million).

Most of the selling in these sectors was absorbed by local insurance companies, and local individuals.

According to SBP data, widely followed, foreign portfolio investment stands at US$3.0 billion (high of US$8.4 billion on May 26, 2017 and low of US$1.0 billion on Mar 14, 2009). Within this (US$3 billion), our estimates suggest that, around US$0.5 billion-1 billion is strategic holdings of sponsors.

That said, remaining US$2 billion is 4 percent of market capitalization and 13 percent of free float capitalization.

The analysts hoped that US$200-300 million net foreign selling during 2021, where the overall outlook of Emerging and Frontier Markets is also improving.

Gold remained the most value generator asset class for investors for the second consecutive year by posting a return of 29 percent in (PKR Terms). Gold prices increased significantly due to tough economic conditions globally amidst COVID-19 outbreak as its considered a safe haven during times of global turmoil.

Fixed Income return (10-year PIB) was 17 percent in 2020, higher than equities return of 7.3 percent.

Real Estate posted a return of 2 percent during the year (2019: 5 percent. The performance of this asset in 1H2020 was poor (-1 percent) just like equities, however it rebounded in 2H2020 by 4 percent after the announcement of the construction package in July 2020.

USD remained relatively stable (+4 percent) against PKR compared to the previous two years’ average gain of 19 percent. Stability in this asset class is due to higher than expected remittances resulting in a Current Account surplus during 5MFY21 and overall weakness of the US Dollar.

The KSE-100 Index has outperformed Emerging and Frontier markets over the last 10 years as PSX 10-Year US$ based CAGR is 7 percent, higher than 1 percent of MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI Frontier Market decline of 1 percent.

However, performance of PSX has remained in line with MSCI Developed Market and MSCI World indices.

Amongst different asset classes in Pakistan, PSX has outperformed others by posting the highest return of 14 percent a year during the last 10 years. This was followed by Gold’s return of 10 percent and T-bills’ return of 9 percent.

KARACHI: The stock market gained 413 points on Wednesday as buying activities witnessed during the day after positive oil prices in international trade.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 43,695 points as against previous day’s close of 43,282 points showing an increase of 413 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market regained the points lost yesterday in the aftermath of selling from financial institutions.

Buying activity was cautious in the beginning and gained momentum as the day progressed especially in the absence of active selling.

International crude oil prices traded positive but in a narrow band that offered no incentive for the seller to book profit at this stage.

Buying activity was witnessed in Textile, Banks and O&GMCs in anticipation of change / announcement of government policies. Among scrips, PRL led the table with 55.2 million shares, followed by TRG (31.2 million) and UNITY (18.5 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Technology (+92 points), Banks (+50 points), Textile (+44 points), E&P (+32 points), Food (+28 points).

Volumes declined from 501.4 million shares to 455.8 million shares (-9 percent DoD). Average traded value increased by 8 percent to reach US$ 141.4 million as against US$ 130.8 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include PRL, TRG, UNITY, HASCOL and KEL, which formed 30 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively to the index include TRG (+63 points), SYS (+30 points), UBL (+29 points), POL (+25 points) and KTML (+18 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include BAHL (-27 points), FCCL (-5 points), KEL (-4 points), MARI (-3 points) and SHEL (-2 points).

KARACHI: The stock market posted a decline of 392 points on Tuesday owing to year-end profit booking and new strain of coronavirus.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 43,282 points as against previous day’s close of 43,674 points showing a decline of 392 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market was dominated by mark to market activity by institutions (as today’s settlement falls on December 31^st) as well as partly due to profit booking.

Stocks having high weightage on Index (OGDC, PPL, HBL, UBL, MCB) traded at and near similar rates as they were on September 2020 end.

Positive news abound, Investors resorted to profit booking today which was evident in E&P, Banks, Cement, Power and Fertilizer sectors with the view that they will be able to buy back at lower rates.

Incidence of new strain of corona cases also caused concern among Investors. Among scrips, UNITY topped the volumes with 41.3 million shares, followed by KEL (38.1 million) and PRL (32 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (-136 points), E&P (-78 points), Cement (-71 points), Fertilizer (-60 points) and Power (-46 points).

Volumes increased from 463.4 million shares to 501.3 million shares (+8 percent DOD). Average traded value also increased by 11 percent to reach US$ 130.7 million as against US$ 117.8 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include UNITY, KEL, PRL, TRG and PAEL, which formed 33 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively to the index include SEARL (+14 points), TRG (+13 points), MEBL (+11 points), UNITY (+9 points) and AKBL (+8 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include HBL (-63 points), MCB (-42 points), HUBC (-42 points), UBL (-38 points) and ENGRO (-35 points).

KARACHI: The share market gained 329 points on Thursday owing to mixed trading activities during the day.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 43,417 points as against previous day’s closing of 43,088 points showing an increase of 329 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that last day of the rollover week ended with fanfare adding a total of 544 points during the session and ending +329 points.

On a weekly basis, the Index gained ~450 points after losing around 1200 points in the first two sessions of the week.

Overnight jump in international crude oil prices helped E&P stocks staged decent recovery, however, profit booking kept the stock price increase in check.

Cement sector performed comparatively better on the back of healthy dispatches, which was further aided by consistent buying interest in Banking sector stocks from the local investors.

Among scrips, UNITY led the table with 46.6 million shares, followed by TRG (37.2 million) and MLCF (34.6 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Cement (+158 points), Technology (+91 points), Banks (+23 points), Vanaspati (+22 points), Fertilizer (-16 points) and Pharma (-11 points).

Volumes sprung back from 379.9 million shares to 571 million shares (+50 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 44 percent to reach US$ 159.1 million as against US$ 110.5 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include UNITY, TRG, MLCF, GGLR1 and ANL, which formed 28 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively to the index include TRG (+65 points), LUCK (+65 points), CHCC (+28 points), SYS (+25 points) and UNITY (+22 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include MEBL (-20 points), ENGRO (-10 points), PSO (-7 points), FFC (-6 points) and DAWH (-4 points).