Category: Stock & Commodity

  • Stock market plunges by 1222 points due to high inflation

    Stock market plunges by 1222 points due to high inflation

    KARACHI: The stock market plunged by 1222 points or three percent on Monday owing to higher than expected inflation numbers.

    The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 40,409 points as against 41,631 points showing a decline of 1222 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market saw a significant drawdown of around 1400 points during the session and closed negative 1222 points.

    Over the weekend, worse than anticipated Inflation caused concern amongst investors, which were otherwise anticipating a rate cut just last week, before the announcement of monetary policy.

    However, the prospects of a rate cut got dampened by the latest release of inflation statistics.

    Declining international crude prices added to the woes of investors and significant dip in oil stocks was also observed. Banking sector stocks realized trading volumes of 40.7 million shares, followed by Cement (27.4 million) and Technology (26.4 million).

    Among scrips, BOP led the trading volumes with 23.5 million shares followed by HASCOL (12.7 million) and MLCF (11.9 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (-320 points), E&P (-271 points), Fertilizer (-137 points), Cement (-98 points) and O&GMCs (-71 points).

    Volumes increased from 193.9 million shares to 203.1 million shares (+5 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 15 percent to reach US$ 59.1 million as against US$ 51.2 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include BOP, HASCOL, MLCF, UNITY and WTL, which formed 31 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include SYS (+12 points), DCR (+1 points), and ATLH (+0 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include PPL (-111 points), HBL (-97 points), ENGRO (-91 points), OGDC (-82 points), and MCB (-74 points).

  • Weekly Review: Market likely range bound on IMF talks

    Weekly Review: Market likely range bound on IMF talks

    KARACHI: The trading activities at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) likely range bound during the next week over talks between IMF and the Pakistan authorities for release of third tranche.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market appears range bound in the mid-term with IMF commencing talks with the Pakistani team next week over release of its third tranche under the $6 billion EFF.

    Moreover, local investors await final verdict of the FATF next month whereby decision over Pakistan’s status (White, Grey or Black) will be taken.

    With that said, long term prospects appear upbeat given improvement in the external account and stable PKR-USD parity.

    The benchmark KSE-100 index of the PSX is currently trading at a PER of 7.2x (2020) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 11.9x and while offering DY of ~6.6 percent versus ~2.8 percent offered by the region.

    With fear of contagion of the Chinese Corona virus across the world, global equities staged a slide with the local equity bourse following suit.

    This was primarily marked by lower crude prices at the beginning of the week, which kept the index-heavy E&P stocks under pressure. In addition, the SBP kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged in the latest monetary policy statement which triggered select Cement and Steel (leveraged) scrips to tumble during mid-week.

    Finally, concerns over rising inflationary readings and political pressure has also kept the index dull. The KSE-100 Index closed at 41,631 points (down by 1,002 points; 2.4 percent WoW).

    Sector-wise negative contributions came from i) Commercial Banks (-431ts), ii) Oil & Gas Exploration Companies (-303 points), iii) Power Generation & Distribution (-113 points), iv) Cement (-66 points), and v) Fertilizer (-41 points). Scrip-wise negative contributions were led by MCB (-126 points), PLL (-108 points), UBL (-97 points), HBL (-96 points) and HUBC (-95 points).

    Foreign selling this week clocking-in at USD 8.0 million compared to a net buy of USD 4.8 million last week. Selling was witnessed in Cement (USD 4.2 million) and Textile composite (USD 1.3 million).

    On the domestic front, major buying was reported by Individuals (USD 9.8 million) and Broker Proprietary Trading (USD 2.0 million). Average Volumes settled at 188 million shares (down by 1 percent WoW) while average value traded clocked-in at USD 46 million (down by 7 percent WoW).

  • Stock market ends down by 273 points on selling pressure in energy scrips

    Stock market ends down by 273 points on selling pressure in energy scrips

    KARACHI: The stock market fell by 273 points on Friday as selling pressure seen in energy scrips. The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 41,631 points as against 41,904 points showing a decline of 273 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market traded in a range today between +234 points and -345 points and closed the session -273 points.

    Despite slight recovery in international crude oil prices, Oil & gas chain remained subdued with E&P stocks declining further by approximately 2 percent on average. Similarly, PSO showed selling pressure.

    Fertilizer Companies, EFERT and FFC are said to announce a cut in Price of Urea by Rs150/bag and Rs. 300/bag respectively and caused selling in Fertilizer scrips.

    Technology sector posted 33.3 million trading volume, followed by O&GMCs (27.6 million) and Vanaspati (24 million). Among scrips, UNITY led the table with 24 million shares, followed by HASCOL (23.5 million) and TRG (12.4 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (-120 points), E&P (-100 points), Cement (-46 points), Tobacco (+32 points) and Technology (+13 points).

    Volumes increased from 162.3 million shares to 193.4 million shares (+19 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 15 percent to reach US$ 51 million as against 44.3 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include UNITY, HASCOL, TRG, AVN and BOP, which formed 42 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include PAKT (+28 points), HASCOL (+12 points), SYS (+12 points), MUREB (+10 points) and ISL (+5 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include PPL (-38 points), UBL (-31 points), LUCK (-30 points), OGDC (-28 points), and HBL (-27 points).

  • Stock market ends flat in mixed trading

    Stock market ends flat in mixed trading

    KARACHI: The stock market ended flat on Thursday amid mixed trading sessions, analysts said. The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 41,903 points as against 41,899 points showing an increase of 5 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market dipped again by 351 points during the session, but staged a recovery and closed the session +5 points.

    LUCK’s result at the opening bell, brought some relief to the sellers in past couple of sessions in which LUCK came down from ~500.

    LUCK’s price rebounded after touching day’s low of 468.80 and closed 484.50. Cement sector largely traded positive, same as Fertilizer sector stocks.

    Oil chain and Banking sector again faced selling pressure almost across the board. Technology sector led the volumes with 32.2 million shares, followed by Banks (26.9 million) and Cement (20.5 million).

    Among scrips, BOP realized 17.9 million shares, followed by AVN (15.9 million) and UNITY (10 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include E&P (-52 points), Banks (-44 points), Power (-26 points), Chemical (-18 points), Inv Banks (+54 points), Cement (+37 points) and Fertilizer (+22 points).

    Volumes declined from 197.2 million shares to 162.2 million shares (-18 percent DoD). Average traded value also declined by 8 percent to reach US$ 44.3 million as against US$ 47.9 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include BOP, AVN, UNITY, HASCOL and WTL, which formed 37 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include DAWH (+54 points), LUCK (+32 points), ENGRO (+26 points), HBL (+13 points) and SYS (+11 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include HUBC (-30 points), MCB (-23 points), UBL (-20 points), COLG (-18 points), and BAHL (-17 points).

  • SECP proposes amendments to AML, CFT regulations to comply FATF recommendations

    SECP proposes amendments to AML, CFT regulations to comply FATF recommendations

    ISLAMABAD: Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has proposed amendments to Anti Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Regulations, 2018 as recommended by FATF.

    The SECP on Wednesday said that the amendments had been proposed to further strengthen SECP’s AML/CFT regime.

    The proposed amendments elaborate on the Risk Based Approach requiring regulated persons (RPs) including; securities brokers, futures brokers, insurers, Takaful operators, non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and Modarabas to conduct risk assessment that is aligned with Pakistan’s latest National Risk Assessment and ensure implementation of Targeted Financial Sanctions.

    The minimum information required for the purpose of KYC/CDD has been listed to make documentation requirements simple and clearer.

    Moreover, the draft amendments provide more clarity on verification for Beneficial Ownership, close associates and family members of PEPs. The RPs are encouraged to use technological solutions for screening and monitoring of transactions as per best practices.

    The SECP has tried to address the regulated sector’s feedback regarding gaps in the implementation of AML/CFT Framework.

  • Stock market plunges by 400 points as policy rate disappoints investors

    Stock market plunges by 400 points as policy rate disappoints investors

    KARACHI: The stock market plunged by 400 points on Wednesday as no reduction in policy rate by the central bank disappointed investors.

    The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 41,899 points as against 42,299 points showing a decline of 400 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that following yesterday’s slide, the market went down by another 400 points.

    The decision of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) of not cutting the rates at this stage caused concern amongst investors and resulted in booking profits in Cement, Steel sectors.

    On the contrary, E&P and OMCs performed better in relative terms on the back of slight improvement in international crude oil prices.

    Start of market saw FFBL announcing financial results which were poorer than anticipation and caused the share price declining to lower circuit.

    Technology sector topped the volumes with 34.3 million shares, followed by Cement (26.1 million) and Banks (23.9 million). WTL realized trading volume of 22.7 million shares, whereas HASCOL realized (17.9 million) and MLCF (10.8 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (-148 points), Cement (-69 points), Fertilizer (-53 points), Power (-31 points), and Inv Banks (-21 points).

    Volumes increased by 4 percent to reach 197.1 million shares as against 189 million. Average traded value increased by 10 percent to reach US$ 47.9 million as against US$ 43.4 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include WTL, HASCOL, MLCF, KEL and FFBL, which formed 35 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include OGDC (+12 points), BAHL (+9 points), ISL (+5 points), SRVI (+3 points) and GLAXO (+3 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include HBL (-62 points), MCB (-44 points), LUCK (-38 points), UBL (-30 points), and ENGRO (-25 points).

  • Stock market declines by 240 points on selling pressure

    Stock market declines by 240 points on selling pressure

    KARACHI: The stock market fell by 240 points on Tuesday owing to selling pressure seen in various scrips. The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange closed at 42,299 points as against 42,539 points showing a decline of 240 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market dipped today by 386 points during the session and closed the session -240 points after staging a short recovery.

    Cement sector continued performing well, whereas Oil & Gas chain remained under pressure due to decline in International crude oil prices.

    Global stock markets have roiled due to the outbreak of NCV in China that also affected commodity markets.

    Banking sector stocks also sustained selling pressure that kept the stock prices on the lower side.

    Cement sector continued leading the volumes on the bourse with 60.9 million shares, followed by O&GMCs (27.6 million) and Banks (12.4 million).

    Among scrips, MLCF led the table with 29.7 million shares, followed by HASCOL (25.4 million) and UNITY (9.9 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (-103 points), E&P (-50 points), Fertilizer (-42 points), Inv Banks (-20 points), Chemical (+23 points), Autos (+16 points).

    Volumes dipped by 5 percent to reach 189.0 million shares against 198.5 million the other day. Average traded value, however, increased by 2 percent to reach US$ 43.4 million as against US$ 42.5 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include MLCF, HASCOL, UNITY, DGKC and CHCC, which formed 42 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include ICI (+12 points), EPCL (+9 points), INDU (+8 points), ATLH (+5 points) and HCAR (+5 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include HBL (-34 points), MCB (-26 points), PPL (-22 points), DAWH (-19 points), and ENGRO (-18 points).

  • Stock brokers express serious reservations on proposed new regime

    Stock brokers express serious reservations on proposed new regime

    KARACHI: PSX Stockbrokers Association has issued rebuttal on propaganda of Securities and Exchange Commission (SECP) through media to pass the proposed new brokers regime (NBR).

    In a press release issued on Monday, it said that firstly, the so called “Small Brokers” term do not exist.PSX Stockbrokers Association (PSA) being representative of more than 66% of the Brokers Fraternity has serious reservations on the Proposed NBR. Regulators approach to defuse the tension by using Small, Medium and Large Size Brokerage Houses is an effort to divide and rule.

    None of the objectives, used to float this NBR, can be achieved by merely increasing the Net-Worth of the Stock Brokers. Clearing and Settlement Risk, as envisaged as Primary Objective, do not exist particularly when:

    1. Pre and Post trade margins are taken

    2. PSX settles trade on T+2 basis

    3. Minimum Rs.16 million per broker is being collected as margin under Base Minimum Capital (BMC) irrespective of any trade

    4. Minimum Rs.5 million under Net Capital Balance

    5. Minimum Rs.7.5 million under Liquid Capital Balance(LCB)

    Apart from the above, a total fund of more than Rs.7 billion is accumulated under Settlement Guarantee Fund and Investor Protection Funds collected by National Clearing Company of Pakistan Ltd (NCCPL) and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) respectively.

    Stock Market declined by more than 50% from May 2017, from 53,500 Index to 28,000 Level without any clearing and settlement default. This clearly reflects that Exposure Margins, acquired by Front Line Regulators, have also minimized, if not eroded the existence of Clearing and Settlement Risk.

    As far as the Custody Risk is concerned, this Proposed NBR in fact increases the said risk, rather than reducing it. A simple calculation based on the parameters provided under the scheme would reveal that Stock Brokers would now be allowed custody by more than 200% of what is allowed currently.

    The foregoing clearly reflects that none of the objective of this NBR will be achieved rather than Custody Risk will be concentrated more in few hands.

    Proposed increase in Net-Worth of Rs.65 million in the NBR cannot justify allowance of 200% increases in Custody.

    Therefore, it cannot be claimed that it “primarily aims to strengthen the Capital Market and restore Investor’s Confidence”
    Commission, while trying to aggravate using AML/CFT/FATF requirements, is unaware of the progress made by the Stock Brokerage Industry and we quote below extract from Pakistan National Risk Assessment (PNRA) Report, published in September 2019, by Ministry of Economic Affairs, wherein, clause 150 states that:

    Considering that all the transactions coming to the securities markets is through banking channel and the primary focus of investors in these markets is investment in securities of the companies, the securities markets are exposed to a lower TF threat abuse. Further, LEAs and EMU have so far not found any incident of TF having a link with the securities or commodities markets.

    Anti Money Laundering Act, 2010, was promulgated on March 27, 2010, and Stock Brokers being Sole Properties were not made part of it. Concept of Corporate Brokerage Houses was implemented after the Demutualization in 2012.

    Furthermore, the claims by SECP’s insider that 27 brokers have defaulted during last 10 years resulting in defaulting of Rs5.8 billion, is nothing but aggravating the situation as prior to demutualization Stock Broker’s Membership Card was valued at Rs150 million. Moreover, it would have been much better had the names and amount of defaulted brokerage house were also disclosed so as to give clearer picture. The average amount of Rs200 million defaults as being painted in the media is misleading.

    The hidden objective of this NBR can be visualized by Section 2.2.3 of the Concept Note on NBR issued in November 2019, which stipulates that, in order to save the compliant brokerage houses that have incurred substantial compliant cost, this NBR is being introduced and all the brokerage houses are therefore forced to adopt all the compliance requirements irrespective of the nature, size and complexity of business.

    This is to ensure that these third generation brokerage houses should be compelled to incur the same amount of expenses as incurred by the brokerage houses with research facilities. Regulators have overlooked the concept of discount brokerage houses, exist worldwide.

  • Stock market falls 94 points in narrow range trading

    Stock market falls 94 points in narrow range trading

    KARACHI: The stock market ended down by 94 points on Monday as it witnessed a narrow range trading. The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 42,539 points as against 42,633 points showing a decline of 94 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market traded in a narrow range of +105 points and -161 points, closing the session 94 points down from LDCP.

    International crude price were significantly down at the opening that caused selling pressure in E&P stocks.

    Likewise, rest of the oil & gas chain bore pressure among Refineries and OMCs.

    Cement sector, on the other hand, performed well with MLCF and KOHC hitting upper circuits, whereas other Cement stocks also trudged well.

    Cement sector led the volumes table with 66 million shares, followed by Transport (35.1 million) and Food (18.9 million).

    Among scrips, MLCF topped the volumes with 25.9 million shares, followed by PIBTL (25.2 million) and FCCL (12.1 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include EP (-93 points), Power (-37 points), Textile (-15 points), Banks (-14 points, Fertilizer (+40 points) and Cement (+19 points).

    Volumes registered an increase from 173.4 million shares to 198.5 million shares (+14 percent DoD).

    Average traded value declined by 3 percent to reach US$ 42.5 million as against US$ 43.5 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include MLCF, PIBTL, FCCL, PIAA and DGKC, which formed 42 percent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively include ENGRO (+29 points), HBL (+15 points), FFC (+15 points), PIBTL (+9 points) and MLCF (+8 points).

    Stocks that contributed negatively include OGDC (-41 points), HUBC (-31 points), POL (-24 points), PPL (-22 points), and MEBL (-15 points).

  • Weekly Review: Equity market likely gain on improved economic indicators

    Weekly Review: Equity market likely gain on improved economic indicators

    KARACHI: The stock market likely to remain positive due to improved macro-economic position on the back of enhanced inflows in debt securities and rising foreign exchange reserves.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market to remain positive on the back of improving macroeconomic position, country witnessing foreign net inflows in debt securities to $2,588 million in FY20TD, rising foreign exchange reserves improving investor’s sentiments, and stable market determined exchange rate.

    Moreover, with the likelihood of Pakistan to get out of FATF’s grey list, investor sentiment should remain upbeat.

    The KSE-100 is currently trading at a PER of 7.3x (2020) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 12.5x while offering a dividend yield of ~6.4 percent versus ~2.7 percent offered by the region.

    This week trading commenced on a negative note attributable to OGRA’s proposing gas price hike coupled with government’s decision to eliminate GIDC on fertilizer sector to reduce prices of Urea which may hurt bottom line of some companies due to different type of gas tariffs.

    On the other hand, Oil and Gas Exploration sector remained under pressure amid decline in international oil prices by 2 percent WoW coupled with appointment of financial advisor to sell stake of OGDC.

    Meanwhile, increase in prices of key commodities like wheat and sugar is set to elevate headline inflation with a stronger force considering their weights in CPI index.

    As a result, the benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed below 43,000-mark at 42,633 points, decreasing by 535 points or 1.24 percent WoW.

    Contribution to the downside was led by i) Fertilizer (-204 points) due to removal of GIDC, ii) Commercial Banks (-87 points) amid profit taking, iii) Oil and Gas Marketing Companies (-71 points), iv) Oil and Gas Exploration Companies (-61 points) due to decline in international oil prices, and v) Tobacco (-61 points). Scrip wise major losers were ENGRO (-153 points), OGDC (-93 points), EFERT (-80 points), PAKT (-53 points), and HMB (-36 points). Whereas, scrip wise major gainers were FFC (+56 points), MARI (+48 points), and COLG (+27 points).

    Foreigners accumulated stocks worth of $4.81 million compared to a net buy of $2.81 million last week.

    Major buying was witnessed in Oil and Gas Marketing Companies (USD +7.73 million) and Fertilizer (USD +1.88 million). On the local front, selling was reported by Individuals (USD -19.31 million) followed by Broker Proprietary Trading (USD -3.05 million).

    That said, average daily volumes for the outgoing week were down by 31 percent to 187 million shares likewise value traded decreased by 10 percent to USD 51.3 million.