The chances of India of reaching the ICC Champions Trophy final appear strong as they prepare to face Australia in the first semifinal at the Dubai International Stadium.
According to pre-match analysis, India hold a 64% probability of winning, while Australia have a 36% chance, based on historical performance between the two cricketing powerhouses.
The 2025 ICC Champions Trophy has reached its final stages, with just four teams remaining in the hunt for the title. India and New Zealand progressed from Group A, while South Africa and Australia advanced from Group B. As the top team from Group A, India will take on Australia, who finished second in Group B, in a high-stakes clash.
India have been dominant throughout the tournament, winning all three of their group-stage matches. Meanwhile, Australia had a disrupted run, with two of their games washed out, but they secured a crucial victory in their only completed fixture. Virat Kohli and Shubman Gill have been standout performers for India, both registering centuries, while Rohit Sharma has displayed his usual aggressive intent but has struggled to convert his starts. Shreyas Iyer’s consistent performances in the middle order have been vital, alongside Axar Patel’s all-round contributions, which have bolstered both India’s batting and bowling departments.
However, India’s pace attack remains a concern. Mohammad Shami is still regaining full match fitness, while their reliance on a spin-heavy strategy, led by Varun Chakaravarthy, has led to a selection conundrum. The key decision ahead of the match is whether Harshit Rana returns to the XI, potentially at the expense of an extra spinner.
Australia, on the other hand, face challenges with Matthew Short ruled out due to injury. His absence affects both their batting and spin-bowling depth, forcing a potential reshuffle. Jake Fraser-McGurk, Aaron Hardie, or Cooper Connolly could step in to fill the void. A positive for Australia is Travis Head’s form, while Josh Inglis, Alex Carey, and Marnus Labuschagne remain crucial in countering India’s bowling attack. Adam Zampa, despite inconsistent performances, could be key in exploiting Dubai’s spin-friendly conditions.
With both teams facing critical selection decisions and contrasting paths to the semifinal, India’s familiarity with Dubai’s conditions may offer them an advantage over Australia, who have played most of their matches in Pakistan. As the cricketing giants prepare for their first ODI encounter since the 2023 World Cup final in Ahmedabad, the stage is set for an electrifying battle. Will India overturn past results, or will Australia once again emerge victorious? Only time will tell.