Karachi, November 27, 2025: Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is projected to rise to around 7% in November 2025, driven primarily by increasing food prices, analysts said on Thursday.
According to Topline Securities Limited, the year-on-year (YoY) inflation for November 2025 is expected to range between 6.5-7.0%, compared to 6.25% in October 2025 and 4.86% in November 2024. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation is projected at +0.8%, fueled largely by food price surges following floods and the closure of the Afghan border, which disrupted supply chains.
Food Inflation Drivers:
Key contributors to rising food prices include:
• Onions: +59%
• Chicken: +16%
• Meat: +15%
• Fresh Vegetables: +12%
However, tomatoes fell 56% MoM, offsetting some of the overall increase due to a prior surge last month.
Other Inflation Contributors:
The Housing, Water, Electricity, and Gas (HWEG) category rose 0.79% MoM, largely due to a 2.83% increase in electricity charges. The previous Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) of -Rs1.8881/kWh applied during Aug–Oct was not carried forward into November, as no new QTA has been announced. Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) was reported at -Rs0.4812/kWh in November, compared to Rs0.0796/kWh in October.
The transport segment is expected to slightly decline by 0.05% MoM, as petrol prices fell 1%, while high-speed diesel (HSD) rose 0.8%.
Real Rates and Risks:
With expected inflation of 6.5-7.0%, real interest rates could rise to 400–450bps, above Pakistan’s historical average of 200–300bps. Analysts warn that global commodity price fluctuations remain a major risk that could significantly alter the inflation trajectory in the coming months.
Rising food prices and utility costs are set to push November 2025 inflation to its highest level in months, highlighting the ongoing challenges in Pakistan’s domestic economy and supply chain management.