ISLAMABAD, September 30, 2025 – The federal government is expected to announce an upward revision in petroleum prices effective from October 1, 2025, for the first fortnight of the new month.
The adjustment will be based on prevailing international oil trends, existing tax structures, and the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM).
According to energy sector projections, ex-depot rates of major fuels are likely to rise as global crude oil markets experience another round of rally. The expected hike in petroleum prices will directly affect petrol, diesel, kerosene, and light diesel oil, adding pressure on transport and household budgets.
Petrol is projected to increase by Rs 1.50 per litre, moving from Rs 264.61 to Rs 266.11. High-Speed Diesel (HSD), the most widely used fuel in agriculture and transportation, may rise by Rs 2.30 per litre, taking its price from Rs 272.77 to Rs 275.07. Kerosene oil, commonly used in rural households, could see a jump of Rs 4.50 per litre, from Rs 179.96 to Rs 184.26. Meanwhile, Light Diesel Oil (LDO) is likely to gain Rs 1.70 per litre, from Rs 163.42 to Rs 165.12.
Analysts warn that higher petroleum prices will feed into the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), which already showed mixed trends in September. The SPI decreased by 0.16 percent for the week ending September 26 compared to the previous week, but it was still 3.95 percent higher year-on-year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The upcoming decision underscores the strong link between international crude oil fluctuations and domestic petroleum prices, which continue to shape inflationary pressures across the economy.