Karachi, January 26, 2026: Sentiments are running high as Pakistan awaits the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today. Market participants and analysts are closely monitoring expectations for a potential benchmark interest rate cut.
The MPC, chaired by Governor SBP Jameel Ahmad, will announce its decision on the key policy rate, followed by a media briefing. In the previous meeting on December 15, 2025, the committee surprised markets by cutting the rate by 50 basis points to 10.50%, citing inflation levels within the 5–7% target range.
Analyst Expectations:
Experts are forecasting another rate cut of 50 to 100 basis points today. They highlight that Pakistan’s economy is showing clear signs of recovery, supported by:
• Easing inflation rates
• Stronger external stability
• Rising foreign exchange reserves
Recent developments, such as the Government of Pakistan Market Treasury Bills auction, have bolstered expectations. Cut-off yields for three- and six-month tenors fell to single-digit levels for the first time in four years, signaling improved investor confidence.
Business Community Perspective:
Industry leaders are advocating for a significant reduction in interest rates, arguing that single-digit rates are crucial for boosting industrial activity, investment, and overall economic growth.
For context, Pakistan’s policy rate peaked at 22% in June 2024. The MPC has since eased the rate by 11.50 percentage points, with further cuts likely if economic indicators continue to improve.
Stay tuned: The decision and Governor Ahmad’s briefing will provide crucial guidance for investors, businesses, and consumers across Pakistan.