Islamabad, January 20, 2026 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward Pakistan’s economic growth outlook, cutting its GDP growth projection for fiscal year 2025–26 (FY26) to 3.2 percent, compared with 3.6 percent estimated earlier in the October 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO).
In its latest report, “World Economic Outlook 2026 Update: Global Economy—Steady Amid Divergent Forces,” the IMF estimated Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.0 percent in 2025, with a moderate increase to 3.2 percent in FY26 and a further rise to 4.1 percent in FY27. The revised outlook reflects ongoing structural challenges and a slower-than-expected recovery trajectory.
Meanwhile, the World Bank has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth to remain at 3.0 percent in FY26, before improving slightly to 3.4 percent in FY27, indicating cautious optimism amid macroeconomic adjustments.
At the domestic level, Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee (NAC) has approved an updated GDP growth rate of 3.09 percent for FY25. The committee also noted that the economy recorded a stronger growth of 3.71 percent in the first quarter (Q1) of FY26, suggesting some near-term momentum.
On the global front, the IMF expects world economic growth to stay resilient, projecting 3.3 percent growth in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3 percent expansion in 2025. According to the Fund, this stability reflects a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from rising technology-related investment, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), accommodative financial conditions, and private-sector adaptability.
The IMF also forecast global inflation to ease from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. However, it warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, including potential financial market corrections, trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and rising public debt pressures.