Karachi, December 7, 2025 – Currency dealers expect the Pakistani rupee to gain further strength against the US dollar in the upcoming week starting December 8, 2025, as the country awaits the approval of the next International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursement.
Market sentiment has already improved ahead of the IMF Executive Board meeting scheduled for Monday, where Pakistan is likely to secure a combined $1.2 billion under two financing programmes.
According to official reports, Pakistan is expected to receive around $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an additional $200 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The development follows the staff-level agreement reached between Pakistan and the IMF in October.
Dealers said the rupee is positioned to maintain its stable upward momentum, supported by the rollover of Saudi Arabia’s $3 billion deposit for another year. They also noted that improved political clarity after the notification of the new Chief of Defence Forces has helped steady the financial markets.
In its latest weekly analysis, Tresmark highlighted that the rupee appreciated by 10 paisa, closing at 280.42 per dollar in the interbank market. The firm added that the currency may strengthen further following the IMF inflows but is unlikely to see a dramatic rise, as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to continue purchasing dollars to shore up foreign exchange reserves rather than allowing excessive appreciation.
The SBP’s forex reserves rose by $14 million, reaching $14.57 billion as of November 28. Tresmark projected that once the IMF tranche is approved, Pakistan’s reserves could surpass the $20.5 billion level, a milestone last achieved during the Covid-19 period. This outlook, the report said, is helping support positive market sentiment.
The note further stated that interbank liquidity remains smooth, with banks’ nostro balances in a comfortable position. Market participants have begun questioning whether the rupee could strengthen to 278 per dollar, although Tresmark believes the SBP will continue intervening to prevent an overshoot.
The report also pointed out that October data shows the SBP’s net short swap position remains near $2 billion, suggesting that pressure on forward premiums stems mainly from exporters’ forward selling and increased foreign exchange loans rather than any shift in central bank policy. Premiums, it added, are likely to improve modestly once Pakistan receives the IMF funds.