Global smartphone shipments are expected to see modest growth in 2025, according to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC).
The research firm projects that 1.25 billion smartphones will be shipped worldwide next year, marking a 1.5% increase compared to 2024. This upward revision is largely credited to the exceptional performance of Apple’s upcoming iPhone 17 series, which is expected to dominate markets across the globe.
IDC’s updated outlook reveals that Apple is on track to ship over 247 million iPhone 17 units in 2025, with demand accelerating across multiple regions. Factors such as a strong holiday quarter, expanding interest in emerging markets, and renewed traction in China are driving the surge. These trends position the iPhone 17 lineup as a key catalyst for the industry’s gradual recovery.
Recent data from IDC’s China Monthly Sales report shows that Apple secured the top sales position in both October and November, thanks to overwhelming demand for the iPhone 17 series. This momentum helped iOS outperform Android and HarmonyOS in terms of annual growth, marking a significant milestone for Apple in one of its most competitive markets.
The success of the iPhone 17 also helped reverse Apple’s earlier projections for China. The company was previously expected to see a 1% decline in the region in 2025, but the refreshed forecast now predicts a 3% growth rate, highlighting the strength of consumer demand. Similar positive trends are emerging across the United States and Western Europe, further strengthening Apple’s global outlook.
However, IDC cautions that growth may not continue uninterrupted. The firm expects a 1% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026, driven by rising memory component costs that could push the average smartphone selling price to $465. Additionally, Apple’s rumored decision to delay the base iPhone 18 launch from late 2026 to early 2027 is likely to impact market performance, contributing to the projected dip.
Despite the challenges ahead, 2025 is shaping up to be a strong year for smartphone manufacturers, with Apple leading the recovery through the standout success of its iPhone 17 lineup.