The upcoming Premier League match between Manchester City (Man City) and West Ham United (West Ham) on January 4, 2025, heavily favors Man City, with the win probability set at 74%. West Ham have a much slimmer chance of a victory, with only 11% of the chances, and there is a 15% probability that the match will end in a draw.
Historically, Man City has dominated this fixture, particularly when playing at home. Out of the 15 Premier League home games against West Ham, Man City has won 14 times, with just one loss, which occurred in September 2015. Since then, Manchester City has won eight consecutive home games against West Ham, showcasing their home advantage.
West Ham’s recent form against Man City has been poor, with no victories in their last 18 Premier League encounters against them. Their last win over Man City came in September 2015, with a 2-1 victory away from home. Since then, West Ham has struggled, and the Hammers have never had a longer winless streak against any team in their league history, matching a similar run of 18 games without a win against Liverpool between 1983 and 1994.
Defensively, West Ham has also struggled against Man City. They have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 24 Premier League games against the Citizens. The only team against whom West Ham has had a longer run without a clean sheet in their league history is Sunderland, whom they faced 25 times between 1923 and 1968.
Man City enters this match with strong form, having won their opening league game in 17 out of the last 18 calendar years. They have also won the first league game of each of the past 12 years in a row, further strengthening their status as favorites for this encounter. On the other hand, West Ham has not lost their opening league game in the last seven calendar years, with their last loss occurring in 2017 against Manchester United.
This game marks the first time since 2006 that West Ham will face the reigning champions in their opening league match of the year, a fixture that previously ended in a 3-1 defeat to Chelsea. Given the historical trends and current form, Man City is expected to have the upper hand in this match, making them clear favorites.