The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has unofficially announced the commencement of the 2024 monsoon season, likely to begin on June 19.
This year’s monsoon is eagerly anticipated as it marks the arrival of critical rains that play a vital role in the country’s water supply and agricultural productivity, according to sources in the PMD.
According to the PMD, the monsoon rains are a natural boon, replenishing rivers, streams, and reservoirs that sustain Pakistan’s irrigation systems. These rains are crucial for the Kharif crop season, enhancing agricultural output and bolstering the economy through increased exports. Additionally, the water collected in dams during the monsoon is essential for hydropower generation, contributing to the nation’s energy supply.
However, the monsoon season also carries the risk of excessive rainfall, which can lead to devastating floods. Pakistan has experienced this in recent years, notably in 2022, when unprecedented rains caused widespread flooding. The floods resulted in $32 billion in damages, over 1,700 deaths, and the loss of millions of livestock. The years 2020-2022 all saw excessive monsoon rains, emphasizing the dual nature of the monsoon as both a blessing and a potential disaster.
Conversely, deficient monsoon rains can trigger drought conditions, as witnessed in 1963, 1968, 1987, and between 1998-2002. These dry spells can lead to food insecurity, diminished water levels in lakes and reservoirs, land subsidence, seawater intrusion, and significant ecosystem damage.
Last year’s monsoon season began on July 3, 2023, slightly later than the usual start date of July 1. The season featured substantial rainfall in July, followed by a sharp decline in August. September saw near-average rainfall, resulting in a generally near-average monsoon season with a +4% deviation from normal. Regionally, Punjab experienced near-average rainfall (-1%), while Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) received below-average rainfall, with deficits of -14% and -17% respectively. In contrast, Sindh and Balochistan enjoyed above-average rainfall, with increases of 29% and 18% respectively. Gilgit-Baltistan saw an exceptional 90% increase in rainfall.
As Pakistan prepares for the onset of the 2024 monsoon, there is cautious optimism. The rains are essential for agriculture and water supply, yet the nation remains vigilant about the potential for flooding. The PMD continues to monitor weather patterns closely to provide timely updates and ensure preparedness across the country.