Islamabad, October 8, 2024 – The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued an early warning regarding a developing low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea, which may potentially escalate into a tropical storm affecting Pakistan’s coastal areas later this month. The NDMA’s Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) sounded the alert on Tuesday, urging citizens and relevant authorities to stay vigilant as the situation unfolds.
According to the NDMA, the low-pressure system is currently situated near the Lakshadweep Valley off the coast of India. Early projections indicate that this system could intensify as it moves northwestward, potentially making landfall along Pakistan’s coastline in the third week of October.
“Preliminary forecasts suggest the possibility of a direct impact on Pakistan’s coastal areas around mid-October, though this will depend on the storm’s eventual trajectory and intensity,” the NDMA stated. The agency also highlighted the potential for this system to evolve into a full-scale tropical cyclone, capable of inflicting significant damage if it reaches Pakistan’s shores.
Chief Meteorologist Sardar Sarfaraz, addressing the early alert, emphasized that the storm has not yet fully formed. “The low-pressure area is expected to develop in the southeastern Arabian Sea by October 9 or 10,” Sarfaraz explained, adding that this region is located near the southern coast of India. He noted that while the system has the potential to intensify, it is still premature to definitively predict its path or whether it will directly affect Pakistan’s coast.
Sarfaraz further elaborated on the evolving situation, stating that the track of the storm can only be determined after it fully transforms into a cyclone. “Historically, most post-monsoon cyclones in this region veer towards Oman,” he said, pointing out that it may take five to six days for the system to strengthen sufficiently to provide a more accurate forecast.
In the meantime, the NDMA has urged citizens, particularly those living in coastal regions, to stay informed and follow official advisories closely. Fishermen and coastal communities have been advised to exercise caution and prepare for potential disruptions.
The NDMA also assured the public that it is closely monitoring the situation in collaboration with other relevant authorities. Additional updates and advisories will be issued as more information becomes available.
It is worth noting that Karachi and other coastal areas experienced sporadic rainfall in August due to Cyclonic Storm Asna, which also developed in the Arabian Sea. The NDMA’s current alert underscores the need for preparedness as the potential for another cyclonic event looms on the horizon.