ISLAMABAD, November 30, 2025 – Pakistan’s revenue collection crisis widened sharply in November 2025, with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) facing one of the largest monthly shortfalls of the fiscal year amid sluggish economic activity, industrial closures, and higher tax rates that continue to squeeze the formal sector.
According to media reports, the FBR is expected to collect around Rs900 billion for November against the assigned monthly target of Rs995 billion, leaving a shortfall ranging between Rs95–143 billion based on different internal estimates compiled up to Saturday evening. This marks a significant jump from the average monthly shortfall of Rs68 billion recorded during July–October.
Officials confirmed that all Large Taxpayer Offices (LTOs), Medium Taxpayer Offices (MTOs), Corporate Tax Offices (CTOs) and Regional Tax Offices (RTOs) remained open on Saturday to push final-day revenue collections; however, the November target remains unmet, with only 90% of the target achieved.
Five-Month Performance Raises Red Flags
During the first five months of FY2025–26 (July–November), the FBR collected Rs4,730 trillion against the target of Rs5,045 trillion, resulting in a cumulative shortfall of Rs315 billion. Provisional net collection for July–November stands at Rs4.727 trillion, following refunds of Rs254 billion, while gross collection reached Rs5.04 trillion.
Breakdown of major revenue heads in the five-month period shows:
• Income Tax: Rs2.231 trillion
• Sales Tax: Rs1.875 trillion
• Federal Excise Duty: Rs0.326 trillion
• Customs Duty: Rs0.547 trillion
Despite an 11.4% growth in revenues during July–October compared to the previous year, the November dip has significantly derailed momentum.
IMF Targets Appear Increasingly Out of Reach
With Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) setting a tax collection goal of Rs6.49 trillion for July–December 2025, the FBR must now collect a substantial Rs1.756 trillion in December 2025 to meet its half-year target — a figure analysts term “unrealistic” given current economic and administrative constraints.
Even the downward-revised annual tax target of Rs13.979 trillion, agreed with the IMF, appears difficult to achieve.
Top government officials, including SIFC National Coordinator Lt Gen Sarfraz Ahmed and State Bank Governor Jameel Ahmed, have recently acknowledged that Pakistan’s heavy reliance on high taxation of the formal sector is “unsustainable” and requires structural reform — reforms that remain stalled amid IMF conditions.
IMF-Linked Contingency Taxes Loom
If the FBR fails to recover its widening shortfall by December’s close, the IMF is expected to activate contingency revenue measures agreed during the second review. These include:
• Increasing GST on solar panels from 10% to 18%
• Raising taxes on the telecom sector
• Increasing FED on fertilisers and pesticides
The IMF has already rejected the government’s proposal to impose a flood levy and earlier pushed for increasing the standard GST rate from 18% to 19%, which Pakistan declined.
Final Figures Expected Soon
FBR officials say the November shortfall may shrink slightly once the final numbers for November 29–30 are compiled. However, economic experts warn that the trend of escalating monthly deficits signals deeper structural challenges that will require urgent corrective measures in the second half of the fiscal year.