Islamabad, February 22, 2026 – The Pakistani rupee is projected to remain broadly stable during the week starting February 23, 2026, despite mounting geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes.
Analysts expect that steady foreign inflows from remittances and export receipts will continue to support the local currency, alongside positive market sentiment surrounding the anticipated visit of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The rupee’s stability is underpinned by improved foreign exchange reserves, a manageable current account deficit, and the IMF’s supportive stance, even as geopolitical risks escalate, particularly tensions between the United States and Iran. Over the past week, the rupee closed at 279.61 against the US dollar in the interbank market on Monday and ended at 279.56 on Friday, showing minimal fluctuation despite global uncertainties.
Historical trends suggest that Pakistan’s foreign exchange market adjusts cautiously when reserves and inflows remain stable. In contrast, the equity market tends to react more quickly to geopolitical and economic shocks. For instance, during last year’s conflict in the Middle East, the rupee fluctuated in a narrow range while the KSE-100 index fell sharply, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to risks associated with oil prices, liquidity, and interest rate expectations.
Current developments in global markets further influence the rupee. Rising Brent crude prices, which have increased by 8-10 percent in recent days, directly affect Pakistan’s import bill and current account pressures. Gold prices have risen $100–150 per ounce, while the US dollar index has strengthened by approximately 1 percent, reflecting broader market volatility. Analysts suggest that while the currency is likely to remain stable under these conditions, elevated oil prices could increase import costs, affect inflation expectations, and influence the State Bank of Pakistan’s monetary policy.
Despite global uncertainties, the Pakistani rupee is expected to maintain a stable trend next week, supported by resilient reserves, ongoing foreign inflows, and cautious market adjustments.