Islamabad, June 2, 2025 – Headline inflation in Pakistan witnessed a notable rise in May 2025, reaching 3.5% year-on-year (YoY) as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.
This marks a sharp increase compared to just 0.3% in April 2025, though significantly lower than the 11.8% recorded in May 2024.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, headline inflation in May 2025 declined marginally by 0.2%, following a 0.8% drop in April and a steeper 3.2% fall in May 2024. Analysts attribute this mixed trend to seasonal fluctuations, the easing of food prices, and a base effect from the previous year.
Urban CPI inflation climbed to 3.5% YoY in May 2025, up from 0.5% in April, though down sharply from 14.3% in May 2024. On a monthly basis, urban prices edged up 0.1% in May, reversing a 0.7% decline the previous month. In contrast, rural CPI inflation stood at 3.4% YoY in May 2025, compared to a 0.1% decline in April and 8.2% in May 2024. However, rural prices dropped 0.5% MoM in May, continuing a downward trend from April’s 1.0% fall and 3.9% in May 2024.
The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) showed a YoY decrease of 0.6% in May 2025, down from 3.6% in April and 15.3% in May 2024, reflecting easing pressure on essential consumer items. On a MoM basis, SPI inflation declined 1.0% in May.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rebounded slightly, registering a 0.4% YoY increase in May 2025 after a 2.2% decline in April, though far below the 9.9% in May 2024. MoM WPI inflation remained flat in May.
Core inflation also presented mixed trends. Urban non-food non-energy inflation eased to 7.3% YoY in May 2025, down from 7.4% in April and 12.3% in May 2024, while rural core inflation dropped to 8.8% from 9.0%.
Despite the jump in headline inflation in May, experts suggest overall inflationary pressure remains subdued compared to the previous year. However, they warn that policy direction in the upcoming fiscal budget could influence inflation dynamics moving forward.