KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee showed a stable performance against the US dollar during the past week and is projected to maintain this trend in the near future. However, potential supply shortages and upcoming external debt repayments may introduce mild pressure on the local currency in the coming sessions.
On Monday, the rupee closed at PKR 281.87 per dollar in the interbank market but gained slightly to settle at PKR 281.77 by Friday. Financial monitoring platform Tresmark projects that the rupee could remain around PKR 281.7 to the dollar in the upcoming week and may even strengthen to PKR 281 next month.
Despite this stable outlook, Pakistan faces external repayment obligations, including a $500 million Eurobond maturity in September 2025, followed by a larger $1 billion repayment in April 2026. Additionally, recent policy measures require Umrah planners to pay foreign exchange dues in advance, potentially adding further demand for foreign currency.
The State Bank of Pakistan has previously assured that future debt commitments will be met without difficulty. Projections for FY2026 indicate total external debt servicing of $25.9 billion, similar to FY2025, with $22 billion earmarked for principal repayments and $4 billion for interest. Around $16 billion of these obligations is expected to be rolled over, leaving $10 billion to be cleared through direct payments.
Market analysts highlight that administrative actions have supported the rupee in both interbank and open market segments. However, cash transactions have slowed, with exchange firms experiencing reduced availability of dollars. Factors such as recent floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab have also impacted remittance flows, as overseas workers postponed visits to Pakistan.
If inflows remain limited, the rupee could face renewed pressure, though for now, the currency retains a steady stance backed by forward booking strategies and policy interventions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Currency values, including the rupee, may fluctuate due to market conditions, geopolitical developments, and economic indicators. Readers are advised to consult authorized financial institutions or market experts before making investment or exchange-related decisions.