Karachi, November 30, 2025 – The Pakistani rupee (PKR) is expected to maintain its steady upward trend against the US dollar in the coming week, supported by anticipated inflows from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stable remittance receipts, and consistent export proceeds.
Analysts believe the local currency may continue to appreciate gradually, with the possibility of the exchange rate slipping below the 280 per dollar mark in the short term.
During the outgoing week, the PKR opened at 280.6 against the dollar in the interbank market on Monday and posted mild gains throughout the week, closing at 280.52 on Friday.
Market Outlook and Analyst Views
Financial analytics platform Tresmark noted in its weekly report that calls for a weaker rupee have resurfaced due to multiple global and regional pressures — including soft global demand, the Indian rupee nearing 90 per dollar, and rising cost challenges for exporters.
However, Tresmark warned that a forced correction in the rupee-dollar parity would be counterproductive.
“The genie of inflation, interest rates, hoarding and capital flight opens up if the USD parity is altered. We have witnessed this several times,” the report stated.
The platform added that despite recent volatility, the US dollar has weakened by 12% against major global currencies, which means the PKR has actually declined in relative terms against the euro, British pound, and gold.
Macroeconomic Indicators Support Stability
Key macroeconomic indicators continue to back a stable currency trend. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $27 million, reaching $14.561 billion as of November 21.
Additionally, the IMF Executive Board is scheduled to review the release of Pakistan’s next $1.2 billion loan tranche on December 8, a development expected to further strengthen market sentiment.
Export Sector Concerns and Policy Recommendations
Tresmark cautioned that if the rupee trades below 280 per dollar, it could destabilize export-oriented industries, which rely on competitive pricing. A moderate depreciation, it noted, would be more sustainable for exporters.
The report emphasized the urgent need to improve swap market conditions, allowing exporters to hedge receivables more effectively.
“The central bank may need to revisit this area soon to support premiums and maintain balance in the market,” it added.