Karachi, October 12, 2025 – The Pakistani rupee is projected to maintain its mild upward momentum against the US dollar in the coming trading sessions, despite cautious sentiment among exporters and renewed uncertainty following the departure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission without a staff-level agreement (SLA) on the $1 billion loan tranche.
During the past week, the rupee strengthened slightly, closing at 281.17 per dollar on Friday compared to 281.25 on Monday. Currency dealers attributed this minor gain to controlled demand for dollars and a stable interbank environment. However, exporters have paused their dollar sales in the forward market, awaiting clarity on the IMF’s next move and domestic political stability.
Market analysts noted that exporters had been actively selling dollars through spot and forward contracts over the past month, but that pace slowed amid concerns over possible trade data discrepancies worth $11 billion and escalating political rifts between provinces. The IMF’s decision to leave without sealing the SLA has further amplified caution in the currency market.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) continues to manage liquidity through buy-sell swaps, keeping pressure on premiums across tenors. As of early October, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $14.42 billion, up by $20 million despite recent external repayments.
The central bank reported that remittances reached $9.5 billion in the first quarter of FY2026—an 8.4 percent year-on-year increase. In September alone, overseas Pakistanis sent $3.2 billion, an 11.3 percent jump from last year.
Experts believe that, despite regional tensions and IMF-related uncertainty, the rupee will likely remain resilient in the short term, supported by improved remittance inflows and steady foreign exchange management by the SBP.