Karachi, September 29, 2025 – Analysts anticipate that headline inflation for September 2025 will show a notable uptick, mainly because of soaring food prices across the country.
The rise follows a brief period of stability in August and highlights the continuing volatility in Pakistan’s price trends.
According to estimates shared by Insight Research, headline inflation is projected at around 5.1 percent for September 2025. This compares with 6.9 percent in the same period last year and 3.0 percent in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices are expected to increase by nearly 2.0 percent, primarily on account of a 5.2 percent jump in food costs. However, the pressure from higher food prices may be partly offset by favorable fuel cost adjustments and a decline in energy tariffs.
A closer look at the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) basket shows that tomatoes surged by 96.6 percent, wheat flour rose 36.9 percent, onions climbed 34.2 percent, while fresh vegetables and potatoes posted increases of 5.6 percent and 5.4 percent respectively. On the other hand, prices of fresh fruits fell by 10.1 percent, while chicken, motor fuel, and certain pulses recorded marginal declines.
Looking ahead, the next monetary policy committee meeting is still weeks away, and many analysts expect the State Bank of Pakistan to maintain its current stance. While the recent floods have caused relatively less damage compared to 2022, supply-side disruptions continue to pose risks. Rising imports, together with the possibility of further domestic food inflation, remain key concerns for the economic outlook. Experts emphasize that maintaining macroeconomic stability and keeping the current account deficit under control should take precedence over aggressive growth measures.
For policymakers, containing inflation and stabilizing household purchasing power remain top priorities.