Karachi, February 7, 2026 – The Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMAP) has cautioned that despite visible improvements in revenue collection, exports, and overall economic momentum, Pakistan will continue to face mounting economic pressures in FY2026, particularly from rising imports, trade and current account deficits, and growing domestic debt.
In its FY2026 economic forecast, ICMAP noted that exports and Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax collection are projected to increase, but imports may surge to $65.9 billion, pushing the trade deficit beyond $30 billion. The current account is expected to slip back into a 0.36% of GDP deficit, while supply-side inflation is forecast at 6% and the policy rate around 10%. Domestic debt is projected to rise to Rs. 60.3 trillion, with total debt and liabilities nearing Rs. 96.8 trillion, reflecting continued fiscal pressures.
Reviewing FY2025, ICMAP highlighted improved macroeconomic stability and resilience across key sectors. FBR tax collection rose sharply to Rs. 12,722.9 billion from Rs. 10,085.2 billion in FY24, while exports reached $32.0 billion. Imports stood at $60.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $28.19 billion. The current account recorded a surplus of $2.1 billion, supported by stronger exports and controlled imports. CPI inflation moderated to 4.5%, the policy rate declined to 16%, real GDP expanded by 3%, and net foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $2.5 billion.
For FY2026, ICMAP projects 3.5% real GDP growth, higher than the IMF’s forecast of 3.09%, citing improved economic momentum. Net FDI is expected to rise by 4% to $2.6 billion, while exports and tax revenues are likely to maintain an upward trend. However, rising imports, inflationary pressures, and expanding domestic debt remain critical risks.
To address these challenges, ICMAP recommended a mix of short-term policy actions and long-term structural reforms. Immediate steps include reducing the policy rate to stimulate private investment, targeted tariff rationalization, boosting domestic manufacturing, improving customs efficiency, and supporting exporters through a Prime Minister’s Export Facilitation Cell. Strengthening high-growth sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods, fast-tracking trade agreements, and facilitating exporters’ access to foreign earnings were also emphasized.
Long-term reforms focus on adopting a flexible exchange rate regime, restructuring loss-making state-owned enterprises, broadening the tax base, and implementing disciplined fiscal management to contain debt. ICMAP said coordinated implementation of these measures could convert economic pressures into sustained growth, ensuring greater stability and inclusive development in FY26 and beyond.