Karachi, March 6, 2026: A recent survey conducted by Topline Securities Limited reveals that the majority of market participants expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to maintain its policy rate in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on March 9, 2026.
According to the survey, 92% of respondents anticipate a status quo, citing regional geopolitical tensions, which have driven Brent oil prices up by 25% over the past 2–3 weeks. Only 6% expect a minor rate increase of 25–50 basis points (bps), and 2% foresee an increase of 50–100 bps, while no respondent expects a rate cut.
Analysts attribute the shift from earlier expectations of a rate cut (80% in January 2026) to the combined effect of rising oil and LPG prices, potential currency depreciation, and regional uncertainty. Current market conditions suggest that while interest rates are likely to remain unchanged now, a prolonged conflict could force SBP to consider a rate hike to curb inflationary pressures.
Market Indicators
| Indicator | Observation |
| Brent Oil Price | +25% in 2–3 weeks |
| Diesel & Petrol Prices | +37–49% globally |
| USD Index | 99 (+2.4%) |
| Secondary Yields (6M T-bills) | +85 bps |
| 6M KIBOR | +58 bps |
Survey Highlights
• Oil Price Expectations: 44% expect $80–90/barrel, 38% $90–100/barrel, 14% $70–80/barrel
• Policy Rate for June 2026: 60% expect 10.5%, 24% above 10.5%
• Inflation Outlook: 58% expect 7–8%, 26% >8%
• PKR/USD Forecast: 48% expect Rs280–285, 36% Rs285–290, 12% Rs275–280
On conflict longevity, 62% expect the Israel/US-Iran situation to last 2–5 weeks, while 22% have no clear view.
The survey underscores that regional tensions, inflation concerns, and currency risks are currently driving market expectations, making a status quo policy rate the most likely outcome at the March 9 MPC meeting.