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Tag: Arif Habib Limited

  • KSE-100 Index falls 796 points on KIBOR rise

    KSE-100 Index falls 796 points on KIBOR rise

    KARACHI: The benchmark KSE-100 index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) fell by 796 points on Tuesday on hefty increase in Karachi Interbank Offered Rate (KIBOR) following key policy rate rise.

    The KSE-100 index closed at 44,949 points as against the previous day’s closing of 45,745 points, showing a decrease of 796 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that today again, Bears ruled over the bulls as investors were unable to digest the hawkish stance of the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which resulted in double-digit six-month KIBOR.

    A hefty increase in the finance cost of leveraged businesses will eventually lower profits as a major portion of borrowing appears from KIBOR-led lending.

    The second day of roll-over week became under pressure as investors took a cautious side and opted for squaring of roll-over positions. In the last trading hour, a bloodbath session was witnessed as selling came across the board.

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Technology (-178 points), Cement (-145 points), Commercial Banks (-94 points), E&P (-64 points) and OMC’s (-44 points).

    Volumes increased from 261.9 million shares to 264.6 million shares (-1.0 per cent DoD). The traded value decreased by 11.1 per cent to reach US$ 55.8 million as against US$ 62.8 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include TRG, WTL, BYCO, GTECH and HASCOL.

    Stocks plunge by 744 points on interest rate hike
  • Stocks plunge by 744 points on interest rate hike

    Stocks plunge by 744 points on interest rate hike

    KARACHI: Stocks plunged 744 points on Monday while reacting to an unexpected hike in interest rate by the central bank.

    The benchmark KSE-100 index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 45,745 points as against last Friday’s closing of 46,489 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that bears ruled over the bulls today as investors were unable to digest the higher than expected interest rate increase.

    The beginning of roll-over week witnessed bearish momentum despite the long-awaited news of Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) having reached a staff-level agreement.

    Firstly, only cyclical stocks came under the radar and investors started off-loading positions.

    Later on, a bloodbath session was witnessed as selling came across the board. On the institutional front, a cautious stance was noted due to the concerns of foreign selling spree.

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Cement (-184 points), Technology (-153 points), E&P (-90 points), Ferilizer (-70 points) and Textile Composite (-36 points).

    Volumes decreased from 304.2 million shares to 261.9 million shares (-13.9 per cent DoD). Traded value also decreased by 8.8 per cent to reach US$ 62.6 million as against US$ 68.6 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include TRG, BYCO, TPLP, TREET and GTECH.

    Stocks gain 379 points as banks cheer rate increase
  • Weekly Review: market likely react to policy rate hike

    Weekly Review: market likely react to policy rate hike

    KARACHI: The stock market is likely to react to a hike in the policy rate during next week. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased the key policy rate by 150 basis points to 8.75 per cent.

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  • Key policy rate may up by 100bps in hawkish stance

    Key policy rate may up by 100bps in hawkish stance

    KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is set to announce monetary policy on November 19, 2021 and analysts believe the central bank may remain hawkish.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the monetary policy committee of SBP will convene on Friday, November 19, 2021 to announce the monetary policy for the next two months.

    The analysts expect that SBP to remain hawkish, raising its policy rate for the second time since the beginning of the current fiscal year 2021/2022 and at a much higher magnitude of 100 basis points – the highest hike in almost 2.3 years – taking the total cumulative increase in FY22TD to 125bps. With this, the revised policy rate is expected at 8.25 per cent.

    To recall, the SBP, continuing with its tightening policy, recently announced a 100bps hike in Cash Reserve Requirement too.

    A shift towards ‘a more hawkish stance’ from the earlier ‘gradual and calibrated’ might be evident in this monetary policy meeting as inflation worries are rumbling more clearly than before.

    Inflation in Pakistan has increased markedly with the resumption of economic activities – but as supply-side inflation has subsided, demand-side inflation has overshot.

    Headline inflation initially remained low averaging at 8.7 per cent during the first four months of the fiscal year 2021/2022, but now with waning base effect, it has started accelerating, raising concerns.

    Clearly, the inflationary pressures reflect the upside arising in global energy and commodity prices and moreover, do not look ready to subside anytime soon.

    We have seen some of the central banks in the regional markets reacting as consumer prices are being pressured by global supply-chain disruptions and costlier energy and food supplies.

    Domestically, there has been a positive development on the COVID front, in terms of reduced infections/deaths and faster vaccinations.

    The overall improved healthcare conditions coupled with the economic performance of high-frequency indicators (such as auto and cement sales) as well as LSM numbers (2MFY22: +7.3% YoY) evidently signal that the overall economic activity is on the cusp of a strengthening revival.

    The domestic recovery that is likely to push GDP growth higher than initially anticipated is adding to inflationary pressures and thus, the prudent policy approach for the SBP would be to tack in a more hawkish path to manage these risks.

    SBP decides early announcement of monetary policy
  • Stocks fall 348 points on policy rate rise expectations

    Stocks fall 348 points on policy rate rise expectations

    KARACHI: The stocks fell by 348 points on Wednesday amid expectations of a rise in the key policy rate and high inflation. The benchmark KSE-100 index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) ended at 46,194 points from the previous day’s closing of 46,542 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that bearish momentum was witnessed today as aggressive tightening of 100 basis points expected in the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) announcement.

    With mounting inflationary expectations and rising secondary market yields, across-the-board sell-off was observed just after the opening bell of the market mainly led by the cement, steel, and technology stocks.

    Accumulation was witnessed in the banking stocks as investors opted for a cautious approach. In the last trading hour, value hunting was seen by the institutional buyers.

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Cements (-135.74 points), Technology & Comm. (-84.04 points), E&Ps (-34.05 points) and OMCs (-31.42 points).

    Volumes decreased from 243.19 million shares to 238.49 million shares (-1.9 per cent DoD). Traded value also decreased by -2.9 per cent to reach US$ 58.3 million as against US$ 60.0 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include SERF, TRG, GGL, TPLP and MERITR2.

    Stock market climbs up 807 points on IPPs payment
  • Pakistan’s fiscal deficit lowers by 9.5% in first quarter

    Pakistan’s fiscal deficit lowers by 9.5% in first quarter

    KARACHI: Pakistan’s fiscal balance in the outgoing first quarter of 2021/2022 posted a deficit of PKR 438 billion, -9.5 per cent YoY lower than prior year’s deficit, according to data released by the finance ministry on Tuesday.

    In terms of per cent GDP, the deficit arrived at 0.8 per cent in 1QFY22 compared to 1.1 per cent recorded in 1QFY21 (PKR 484 billion), said analysts at Arif Habib Limited.

    However, the primary surplus during the period stood at PKR 184 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP in 1QFY22) , down 29 per cent YoY, compared to a primary surplus of PKR 258 billion witnessed same period last year (0.6 per cent of GDP).

    Primarily, total revenue growth of 22 per cent in 1QFY22 to PKR 1.8 trillion (1QFY21: PKR 1.5 trillion) aided the fiscal balance, translating into 3.4 per cent of GDP vs. 3.2 per cent same period last year.

    The total tax revenue collection was up by 37 per cent YoY to PKR 1.5 trillion. Indirect taxes (+42 per cent YoY to PKR 917 billion) mainly on the back of higher sales tax (+43 per cent YoY to PKR 264 billion), and direct taxes (+32 per cent YoY to PKR 481 billion amid higher number of tax payers), contributed to the overall collection.

    In addition, the government collected PKR 276 billion in non-tax revenues, displaying a decline of 23 per cent YoY. This was particularly owed to lower Petroleum Levy (-90 per cent YoY | PKR 13 billion). On the flipside, the surplus profit of State Bank of Pakistan and Pakistan Telecommunication Authority increased during 1QFY22 to PKR 109 billion (+4 per cent YoY) and PKR 30 billion (+269 per cent YoY), respectively.

    In addition, total expenditures went up by 14 per cent YoY to PKR 2.3 trillion (4.2 per cent of GDP vs. 4.3 per cent of GDP in 1QFY21).

    Further breakup revealed that current expenditure underwent an uptick of 9 per cent YoY of which defence rose by 17 per cent YoY.

    However, the markup expenses went down by 16 per cent YoY to PKR 623 billion. Moreover, development expenditure and net lending undertaken by the government increased by 38 per cent YoY to PKR 180 billion.

    Total PSDP expenditure in 1QFY22 arrived at PKR 262 billion (+63 per cent YoY) with provincial expenditure at PKR 154 billion (+71 per cent YoY), outdoing federal disbursement of PKR 108 billion (+53 per cent YoY).

    Pakistan’s fiscal deficit narrows in nine months
  • AHL makes winning history at CFA Awards

    AHL makes winning history at CFA Awards

    KARACHI: Arif Habib Limited (AHL), Pakistan’s leading Brokerage and Investment Banking Firm, makes history by winning the awards of “Best Brokerage House”, “Best Corporate Finance House”, “Best Economic Research House” and “Best Research Analyst” by CFA Society Pakistan in their 18th Excellence Awards for 2020.

    The occasion was graced by Shaukat Tarin, Advisor to the Prime Minister on Finance and Revenue.

    These annual awards are considered capital markets’ benchmarks and are based on a confidential poll, surveying respondents comprising the buy-side asset managers and investment professionals from Pakistan’s financial sector including Banks, Asset Management Companies, DFIs and other financial Institutions.

    AHL has achieved the distinction of winning all the three House awards, Brokerage/Corporate Finance/Economic Research, in any award ceremony organised by the CFA Society of Pakistan.  AHL has received the Best Corporate Finance House award for seven consecutive years.

    Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at AHL, was recognized as the Best Research Analyst for the third time.

    During the ceremony, Shahid Ali Habib, CEO of Arif Habib Limited said, “We are humbled by the appreciation in CFA Society Pakistan Awards ceremony. We Alhamdulillah have made history by winning all the House awards, which has never happened in previous events. All the credit goes to our hardworking team and our clients who have put confidence in us.”

    Stocks fall by 181 points on inflation concerns
  • KSE-100 index gains 870 points on IMF talks resumption

    KSE-100 index gains 870 points on IMF talks resumption

    KARACHI: The KSE-100 index registered an increase of 870 points on Wednesday as investors’ sentiments improved on IMF talks resumption.

    The benchmark KSE-100 Index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) at 45,500 points as against last trading on October 18, 2021 at 44,629 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that as the news of resumptions of dialogue with IMF team relayed, investors’ concerns over the package started dissipating, causing the Index to make an upward swing.

    Cement, Technology, Banks, Fertilizer stocks remained in the limelight. Cement stocks led the index on news of Cement companies increasing the cement price / bag, whereas dwindling outflows from foreign counters in Banks and Fertilizer stocks also helped these sectors post healthy gains.

    Among scrips, WTL led the volumes with 49.3 million shares, followed by HUMNL (24.7 million) and BYCO (15.6 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (+201 points), Cement (+160 points), Technology (+106 points), Fertilizer (+79 points) and Textile (+49 points).

    Volumes increased from 248.2 million shares to 308.2 million shares (+24 per cent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 18 per cent to reach US$ 59.8 million as against US$ 50.8 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include WTL, HUMNL, BYCO, TELE and UNITY, which formed 39 per cent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively to the index include TRG (+65 points), LUCK (+58 points), ENGRO (+50 points), HUBC (+49 points) and HBL (+44 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include OGDC (-8 points), NESTLE (-7 points), HGFA (-6 points), GHGL (-5 points) and KAPCO (-4 points).

  • KSE-100 index falls on uncertainty in IMF negotiations

    KSE-100 index falls on uncertainty in IMF negotiations

    KARACHI: The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) fell by 192 points on Monday. The index declined owing to uncertainty in dialogues of the government authorities with the IMF.

    The index closed at 44,629 points as against last Friday’s closing of 44,821 points.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market took pressure from the negative news vibes due to delay in negotiating the resumption of IMF package.

    Though, the Ministry of Finance highlighted that the negotiations are ongoing and underlying terms will be negotiated soon, the investors had not like the uncertainty.

    Oil chain and banking stocks went positive earlier in the session that added a total of 169 points on the index, however, selling pressure eroded this gain and MoC brought the Index in negative territory.

    Among scrips, HUMNL topped the volumes with 25.1 million shares, followed by WTL (20.8 million) and HASCOL (13.8 million).

    Sectors contributing to the performance include Technology (-146 points), Cement (-47 points), Engineering (-27 points), Textile (-24 points) and Refinery (-18 points).

    Volumes declined from 334.3 million shares to 248.3 million shares (-26 per cent DoD). Average traded value also declined by 25 per cent DoD to reach US$ 51 million as against US$ 68.2 million.

    Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include HUMNL, WTL, HASCOL, UNITY and DSL, which formed 34 per cent of total volumes.

    Stocks that contributed positively to the index include HBL (+48 points), MCB (+31 points), OGDC (+30 points), PPL (+29 points) and ENGRO (+27 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include TRG (-88 points), SYS (-47 points), BAHL (-42 points), FFC (-22 points) and UNITY (-17 points).

    Stocks gain 488 points on positive sentiments
  • Weekly Review: Stock market likely to move positive

    Weekly Review: Stock market likely to move positive

    KARACHI: The stock market likely to move positive during next week on hope of resumption of IMF program.

    Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market to move positive as we get closer to resuming the IMF program and receiving a $1 billion tranche.

    Whereas recent bouts of selling at the index has once again opened up valuations; we advise investors to cherry-pick blue chip stocks with a long term focus, they said.

    Key short term risks include: regional volatility and the ensuing security concerns, together with PKR depreciation.

    The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is currently trading at a PER of 5.2x (2021) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 14.7x while offering a dividend yield of 8.1 per cent versus 2.2 per cent offered by the region.

    The benchmark equity bourse closed in green after four weeks of bleeding. During the early part of the week investors resorted to panic selling amid lack of clarity on continuation of the IMF package as well as delay in the process to appoint a new Director General of the ISI (DG ISI).

    Albeit, with Finance Minister assuring that the government would soon address concerns of the global lender and resume the IMF’s EFF, as well as PM’s statement allaying any rumors of a military-political divide, the KSE-100 index posted two swift back to back bull runs. The market closed at 44,821 points, (gaining 344 points / up by 0.8 per cent WoW).

    Sector-wise positive contributions came from i) Commercial Banks (393 points), ii) Oil & Gas Exploration Companies (136 points), iii) Fertilizer (123 points), iv) Cement (98 points), and v) Pharmaceuticals (28 points). Whereas, sectors which contributed negatively were i) Technology & Communication (342 points), and ii) Food & Personal Care Products (50 points). Scrip-wise positive contributors were HBL (153 points), PPL (87 points), UBL (67 points), LUCK (59 points) and OGDC (42 points). Meanwhile, scrip-wise negative contribution came from TRG (260 points), SYS (70 points) and PAKT (27 points).

    Foreign selling continued this week, clocking-in at USD 13.3 million compared to a net sell of USD 3.7 million last week. Major selling was witnessed in Fertilizer Sectors (USD 12.1 million), Commercial Banks (USD 7.8 million) and Cement (USD 3.11 million). On the local front, buying was reported by Insurance Companies (USD 12.2 million) followed by Mutual Funds (USD 3.4 million). Average volumes clocked-in at 342 million shares (up by 29 per cent WoW) while average value traded settled at USD 71 million (up by 20 per cent WoW).

    Stocks gain 488 points on positive sentiments