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  • Economy likely to grow better than World Bank forecast

    Economy likely to grow better than World Bank forecast

    ISLAMABAD: The finance ministry on Thursday said that the economy likely to grow better than forecast of World Bank.

    The ministry said that the government’s extensive measures have helped the economy move progressively along the adjustment path and stabilization process and economic recovery is expected towards the end of FY2020.

    “The government is focused on bringing improvement in the real sector growth through inclusive growth in agriculture, industrial and services sectors,” said a statement by the Finance Division in response to certain news reports carried in a section of the regarding downward revision of growth by the World Bank.

    The government is cognizant of challenges and stringently focused on resolving them particularly, reducing inflation, creating job opportunities and achieving high growth rate.

    “Keeping in view the positive developments on major economic indicators, we expect that the economy will likely to achieve better growth prospects as against the projections of the World Bank.”

    The World Bank in its report ‘2020 Global Economic Prospects’ had forecasted Pakistan`s current year growth rate at 2.4 percent before touching 3 percent next fiscal year and 3.9 percent in FY2022.

    The bank’s report had also mentioned that the growth had decelerated an estimated 3.3 percent in FY2018-19, reflecting a broad-based weakening in domestic demand.

    In addition, the report had described that significant depreciation of the Pakistani rupee resulted in inflationary pressures, monetary policy tightening restricted access to credit, curtailing public investment to deal with large twin deficits and budget deficit rose more sharply than expected.

    It may be pointed out that during FY2019, the slowdown in economy was largely attributed to various policy measures to manage the twin deficit crisis. Consequently, these measures helped to contain demand pressures and contributed to import compression.

    However, the outcomes of these measures were realized on the industrial sector.

    Particularly LSM sector witnessed a negative growth. At the same time, high input costs along with water shortages weakened agriculture sector’s output and hence, the drag in the commodity-producing segments spilled over to the services sector as well.

    Resultantly, the real GDP growth recorded at 3.3 percent. At the start of current fiscal year, with government’s extensive measures, Pakistan’s economy is now moving progressively along the adjustment path and stabilization process; however towards the end of FY2020, economic recovery is expected. In this regard, Government is focused on bringing improvement in the real sector growth through inclusive growth in agriculture, industrial and services sectors.

    For growth in agriculture sector, the target production of wheat is 27 million tons given by FCA in last meeting held in October. In addition to uplift agriculture sector “National Agriculture Emergency Programme” in coordination with all provinces has been introduced and approved 13 mega projects at the cost of Rs 287 billion.

    Agriculture credit disbursement target for CFY20 has been set at Rs.1,350 billion. Agriculture credit disbursement increased by 20 percent to Rs 482 billion during Jul-Nov, FY2020 against Rs.402 billion last year. To boost industrial sector, the government is providing a series of subsidies and incentives to industrial sector.

    These include subsidies to industry for electricity and gas, export development package and continue to provide Long-Term Trade Financing (LTFF) and Export-Refinancing Scheme (ERS) at subsidized rate. Similarly, PSDP release process is simplified and up to 3rd January, 2020 Rs.301.4 billion (Rs.225.4 billion) released to encourage construction related industries especially cement & steel.

    In addition, Cement dispatches growth of 6.55 percent (24.8 million) during July-Dec, FY2020 against 23.2 million in the last year. This development would likely stimulate the growth in LSM in coming months. On fiscal side, to control expenditures, government is following austerity measures with complete restriction on supplementary grants.

    For export promotion several initiatives have been announced such as support duty structure on raw materials and intermediate goods, improve mechanism for tax refunds, provide electricity and gas at competitive cost, and make Pakistan part of the global value chain.

    Government’s various measures to stabilize the economy has already started to reap benefits in the form of sustained adjustment in current account deficit (CAD) and continued fiscal prudence.

    A brief review indicates that CAD reduced by 72.9 percent during July-November FY2020, Fiscal deficit contained at 1.6 percent of GDP (Rs 686 billion) during Jul-Nov FY2020 ,Primary balance posted surplus of Rs 117 billion during Jul-Nov, FY2020 (0.3 percent of GDP), significant rise in FBR tax revenues to Rs.2085.2 billion (16.4 percent) during July-December, FY2020, improved ranking in ease of doing business, ranked among the world’s top 10 best business climate improver and ‘Stable’’ credit outlook to B3 from ‘Negative’ by Moody’s is an affirmation of Government’s success in stabilizing the economy and laying a foundation for robust growth.

  • IMF acknowledges Pakistan’s reform program on track: finance ministry

    IMF acknowledges Pakistan’s reform program on track: finance ministry

    ISLAMABAD: The ministry of finance has said that International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged Pakistan’s reform program on track and business and market confidence is returning.

    In a statement on Sunday, the finance ministry highlighted IMF Board Assessment key economic performance indicators.

    It said that on the completion of first review of Pakistan’s economic performance, IMF has acknowledged that Pakistan’s reform program is on track and already producing results.

    Decisive policy implementation has started to address the deep-seated problems of Pakistan’s economy and to reverse its large imbalances, preserving financial stability.

    The report acknowledges that the business climate has improved, and market confidence is returning.

    IMF further adds in its assessment that the Government recognizes that structural reforms, especially in SoE sector are key to revive economic activity and growth.

    IMF has released SDR 328 million (about $ 452.4 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 1,044 million (approx $1.45 billion).

    The report has confirmed that End-September performance criteria (PCs) were observed with wide margins. These include

    — Zero budgetary borrowing from SBP

    — Primary budget deficit ceiling

    — Ceiling on government guarantees

    — Zero external public payment arrears

    — SBP net international reserves (NIR), net domestic assets (NDA), and swaps/forwards targets all met

    In addition to above, all structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-September, except the SB on AML/CFT, were completed.

    With regard to inflation outlook, IMF has lowered Inflation projection for FY20 to 11.8 percent, down from 13 percent earlier on account of this fact that the administrative and energy tariff adjustments are expected to offset the effects from weak domestic demand. Thereafter, inflation is expected to converge to 5-7 percent.

    The report confirms that inflation has been started to stabilize, along with core inflation, and the SBP stance is appropriate (no need for further rate hikes).

    However, we are of the view that we will do much better than IMF projection. As inflation during Jul-Nov was 10.8 percent and with measures taken we target to bring inflation down to 5 percent over the medium term.

    With regard to the external sector, significant improvement has been witnessed. Overall, Current Account Deficit (CAD) shrunk by almost two-thirds (74 percent) in the Q1 FY 20 compared to the same period of FY 2019. CAD is projected to decline to 2.4 percent of GDP in FY20 (4.9 percent), which is lower than earlier IMF forecasts of 2.6 percent.

    Total imports fell by 23 percent y-o-y in Q1 of FY2020, but imports of machinery and equipment were more resilient, rising about 2 percent y-o-y. Exports are showing some sign of recovery, up 2 percent y-o-y for the same period with 17 percent volume growth, mainly driven by food and textiles.

    The report states that transition to a market determined exchange rate has allowed the rupee to find its new equilibrium quickly, thereby, successfully correcting the ‘exchange rate overvaluation’ of the last 5 years.

    The report has also acknowledged strong Fiscal performance in the First Quarter of FY2020 while stating Primary surplus of 0.6 percent of GDP and an overall deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP, about 1 percent of GDP better than programmed.

    In addition, Tax revenue growth was in double-digits (net of refunds) even though customs receipts and other external sector related taxes have suffered due to import compression.

    Key Concessions won by Government includes:

    Ceiling on NDA of SBP (Performance benchmark) has been enhanced to Rs 9.1 trn (8.7), an increase of Rs 339 billion in FY20.

    This is positive for growth and will be utilized for concessional financing for the export industry

    Ceiling on government guarantees has been enhanced to Rs 1.8trn (1.6), an increase of Rs 252 billion in FY20

    This is positive for growth and will allow government to settle the outstanding stock of circular debt

    Floor on FBR tax collections for FY20 has been revised lower to Rs 5.2trn (5.5), due to strong improvement in non-tax revenue

    During H1 Fy20, government non tax revenue collection has hit Rs 878 billion which is 75 percent of full year budgeted collection of Rs 1.16 trn.

    This is positive for growth and will ease the burden on public and businesses

    The finance ministry highlighted Current Economic Performance:

    Pakistan economy has witnessed significant improvements in recent months as evidenced from the performance of key economic indicators mentioned below:

    Exchange rate is stable for 5 months, Rupee appreciated by 3.2 percent (Rs/$ 160.1 to 154.89)(20th Dec, 2019), Stock Exchange 100-Index up 20.1 percent since 1st July, 2019 (33,996) to 40,832(20th Dec, 2019) , SBP FX Reserves increase to $ 10.8 billion (13th Dec, 2019), from 7.2 billion (June 2019) , Ease of Doing index up by 28 points (108/190) and World Bank rank Pakistan in Top 10 improvers.

    After 4 years of outflow, total foreign portfolio investment up $ 1.2 billion during Jul-Nov FY20 (-330 million last year). FDI increased to 850 million (477.3 million last year)↑ 78.1 percent. Total foreign investment reached to $2 billion (last year 147 million).

    Similarly, Incorporation of Companies increased 25.8 percent (7,177 from 5,707) during Jul-Nov FY2020.

    FBR tax collection grew by 16.8 percent to Rs 1615.2 billion during July-November, FY2020 against Rs 1382.9 billion last year. Within total FBR tax collection Domestic tax collection grew up 21.5 percent and Import taxes down 2.6 percent (import compression)

    On external side, Exports increased by 4.7 percent to $10.31 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $9.85 billion in the same period last year, while Imports decreased by 21.1 percent to $18.31 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $23.22 billion in the same period last year.

    Consequently, Trade deficit decreased 40.1 percent to $8.002 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $13.36 billion in the comparable period of last year.

    Cement dispatches increased by5.8 percent to 20.462 million ton (15.4million ton). Cement export increased 21.5 percent to 3.608 million ton (2.4 million ton).

    Other Developments include:

    PSDP releases system is accelerated. In this regard ways & means and Finance Division endorsement is eliminated.

    As a major development, PSX becomes best performing market as per Bloomberg in last three months. PSX benchmark KSE 100-Index gained around 10,500 point in last three months.

    Similarly, the Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to stable from negative.

    On external front, in the month of November, 2019 Exports increased 11.23 percent to $2.110 billion against $1.897 billion in the same month last year while Imports decreased 13.18 percent to $3.648 billion as compared with $4.202 billion in the comparable period last year.

    In October 2019, on M-o-M, LSM registered a growth 4.01 percent (Sep 1.9 percent), indicating upward trajectory. Cement dispatches increased 10.6 percent in November to 4.35 million ton (3.9 million ton).

    Another important development is that Karkey renegotiated to save Pakistan $ 1.2 billion.

    Circular Debt:

    Monthly flow decreased from Rs 38 billion in July 2019 to about Rs 10 billion. Targeted to be zero next year.

    Strategy for dealing with the stock of debt being finalized.

    Protection for lower end consumers <300 from price rationalization.

    More effective recovery/detection of electricity theft (>50 million).

    Ministry of Energy will issue an additional Rs 250 billion Sukuks (with government guarantee) in FY2020 to retire the CPPA liabilities of the IPPs.

    Compact for Jobs & Growth

    Scale up Affordable Housing devised by Naya Pakistan Housing Authority

    Additional budgetary allocation of Rs 20 billion to 30 billion in FY2020 to cover the 10 percent down payment by beneficiaries of affordable housing. The total impact of this stimulus to the economy would be equivalent to Rs 200 billion to Rs 300 billion.

    Tax Credits equal to 10 percent of the amount of expense related to these projects including labour related costs will be allowed to the developer for the first two years

    Exporter’s package

    Additional credit of Rs 200 billion for exporters under the Export Finance Scheme (EFS) in FY2020

    The interest rate differential (between Kibor and EFS markup) will be paid by additional Rs 10 billion subsidy by the government in FY2020

    This will boost export sector and reduce their cost of doing business

    SBP will give additional Rs 100 billion worth of lending to the exporters, to be subsidized by government through SBP profits.

  • Proposals for establishment of Pakistan Revenue Authority to be finalized by June 2020

    Proposals for establishment of Pakistan Revenue Authority to be finalized by June 2020

    ISLAMABAD: The ministry of finance has been directed to finalize proposals for establishment of Pakistan Revenue Authority (PRA) by June 30, 2020.

    The directives have been issued at a meeting chaired by the prime minister on restructuring of FBR held last month.

    It is decided that the ministry of finance (Revenue Division) to formulate comprehensive proposals for establishment of PRA and centralized collection of General Sales Tax (Goods and Services) by PRA under the ambit of World Bank’s “Pakistan Raises Revenue Project” by June 30, 2020.

    The meeting discussed the current structure of the FBR that it is archaic and highly bureaucratic, which does not commensurate with technology driven tax administration in vogue around the world.

    There is need to establish legislative empowered, tailored to task (lean organization) and technology driven PRA.

    In the interim period, the FBR headquarters needs to be reorganized /articulated on functional lines segregating Inland Revenue and Customs Operations into North and South Zones.

    Deputy Chairman (2) of FBR need to be appointed to effectively coordinate and supervise segregated functions of Inland Revenue and Customs.

    The meeting approved to appoint deputy chairmen for Inland Revenue and Customs by November 30, 2019.

    Following is the proposed mandate to PRA:

    • Constitutionally empowered and autonomous authority with ‘lean organization’, structured along functional lines.
    • Tax policy entrusted to Ministry of Finance (Revenue Division); guided by political leadership and informed by Tax Policy Board and PRA Board.
    • Disparate provincial revenue authorities should be consolidated into a single authority for each province under the overall coordinated, facilitation, guidance and oversight by PRA (through integrated process).
    • Establishment of Directorate General of Revenue Coordination & Oversight (headed by Director General –Grade 21) at PRA for ensuring fiscal discipline, enhance flexibility and responsiveness of fiscal framework.
    • To address collection, jurisdiction and double taxation issues, GST (including services) be adopted as PRA’s responsibility.
    • Conditional vertical resource distribution formula linked to revenue collection performance under PRA’s coordination / oversight.

    Related Posts

    FBR to get real-time data of financial transactions

    FBR to initiate criminal proceedings in tax evasion above Rs10 million

    FBR to conduct nation-wide survey of immovable properties to assess wealth parked in real estate sector

  • Provinces collect Rs7.03 billion as property tax

    Provinces collect Rs7.03 billion as property tax

    ISLAMABAD: The province have collected Rs7.03 billion as property tax during fiscal year 2018/2019 as compared with Rs5.55 billion in the preceding fiscal year, showing growth of 26.57 percent, according to details issued by the federal finance ministry.

    The collection of property tax is provincial jurisdiction and the provinces collected the tax on rental of immovable property. The sources said that the increase in tax revenue under this head was due to revision in valuation of rents on immovable properties by the provinces.

    The break-up shows that the province of Punjab collected Rs2.816 billion as property tax during fiscal year 2018/2019, which is 23.6 percent higher when compared with Rs2.278 billion in the preceding fiscal year.

    Sindh collected Rs2.85 billion as property tax during the last fiscal year, showing 41.2 percent growth when compared with collection of Rs2.016 billion in the preceding fiscal year.

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also collected Rs1.15 billion during the fiscal year 2018/2019 as compared with Rs1.13 billion in the preceding fiscal year.

    Baluchistan collected property tax to the tune of Rs213 million in the last fiscal year as compared with Rs122 million in the preceding fiscal year.

  • Sindh receives Rs441.8 billion in nine months: finance ministry

    Sindh receives Rs441.8 billion in nine months: finance ministry

    ISLAMABAD: The ministry of finance on Monday said that Sindh has received Rs441.8 billion during the first nine months of current fiscal year.

    While clarifying media reports that the federal government had delayed or reduced transfers of funds to provinces, said that the government of Sindh has received Rs441.8 billion, as federal transfers, during the first three quarters (July – March 2018–19) of the current fiscal year compared to Rs418.1 billion during the corresponding period of the last fiscal year entailing a 5.7 percent increase i.e. Rs23.7 billion higher than the last year.

    Similarly, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have received Rs 866.6 billion and Rs. 290.4 billion, respectively, compared to Rs 801.7 billion and Rs 269.3 billion received during the corresponding period last year that has resulted in 8.1 percent and 7.9 percent increase in their Federal transfers.

    Balochistan also saw a12.8 percent increase in its Federal Transfers by receiving Rs. 180.3 billion compared to Rs. 159.9 billion during the same corresponding period.

    The ministry said that all the provinces have been receiving their share in the Federal Transfers in accordance with the NFC Award.

    The Federal Government makes these transfers, fortnightly, on the same day of reporting of the collections by the collecting agencies (i.e. Federal Board of Revenue and Petroleum Division).

    Any shortfall in revenue collections results in a uniform change in the share of the Federation and the provinces in the Federal Transfers.

  • Official website still showing Asad Umar as finance minister

    Official website still showing Asad Umar as finance minister

    The official website of Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance continues to show Asad Umar as the Finance Minister, despite Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh assuming the role of Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance and Revenue.

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  • List of top 50 taxpayers in categories of individual, AOPs and companies

    List of top 50 taxpayers in categories of individual, AOPs and companies

    In a significant move to acknowledge and appreciate the pivotal role played by taxpayers in bolstering the national revenue, the Ministry of Finance has unveiled the eagerly awaited list of the top 50 taxpayers across diverse categories.

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  • Reform plan for improving financial health of three PSEs

    Reform plan for improving financial health of three PSEs

    ISLAMABAD: The government has launched a reform plan for improving financial health of three major Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) including Pakistan Steel Mills, Pakistan Railways and Pakistan International Airlines, according to Fiscal Policy Statement 2018/2019 issued by the ministry of finance.

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  • Exchange rate losses increase public debt by Rs1,200 bn

    Exchange rate losses increase public debt by Rs1,200 bn

    ISLAMABAD: Exchange rate losses have increased the public debt by around Rs1,200 billion, according to Fiscal Policy Statement 2018-2019 released by the Ministry of Finance.

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