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  • IMF acknowledges Pakistan’s reform program on track: finance ministry

    IMF acknowledges Pakistan’s reform program on track: finance ministry

    ISLAMABAD: The ministry of finance has said that International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged Pakistan’s reform program on track and business and market confidence is returning.

    In a statement on Sunday, the finance ministry highlighted IMF Board Assessment key economic performance indicators.

    It said that on the completion of first review of Pakistan’s economic performance, IMF has acknowledged that Pakistan’s reform program is on track and already producing results.

    Decisive policy implementation has started to address the deep-seated problems of Pakistan’s economy and to reverse its large imbalances, preserving financial stability.

    The report acknowledges that the business climate has improved, and market confidence is returning.

    IMF further adds in its assessment that the Government recognizes that structural reforms, especially in SoE sector are key to revive economic activity and growth.

    IMF has released SDR 328 million (about $ 452.4 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 1,044 million (approx $1.45 billion).

    The report has confirmed that End-September performance criteria (PCs) were observed with wide margins. These include

    — Zero budgetary borrowing from SBP

    — Primary budget deficit ceiling

    — Ceiling on government guarantees

    — Zero external public payment arrears

    — SBP net international reserves (NIR), net domestic assets (NDA), and swaps/forwards targets all met

    In addition to above, all structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-September, except the SB on AML/CFT, were completed.

    With regard to inflation outlook, IMF has lowered Inflation projection for FY20 to 11.8 percent, down from 13 percent earlier on account of this fact that the administrative and energy tariff adjustments are expected to offset the effects from weak domestic demand. Thereafter, inflation is expected to converge to 5-7 percent.

    The report confirms that inflation has been started to stabilize, along with core inflation, and the SBP stance is appropriate (no need for further rate hikes).

    However, we are of the view that we will do much better than IMF projection. As inflation during Jul-Nov was 10.8 percent and with measures taken we target to bring inflation down to 5 percent over the medium term.

    With regard to the external sector, significant improvement has been witnessed. Overall, Current Account Deficit (CAD) shrunk by almost two-thirds (74 percent) in the Q1 FY 20 compared to the same period of FY 2019. CAD is projected to decline to 2.4 percent of GDP in FY20 (4.9 percent), which is lower than earlier IMF forecasts of 2.6 percent.

    Total imports fell by 23 percent y-o-y in Q1 of FY2020, but imports of machinery and equipment were more resilient, rising about 2 percent y-o-y. Exports are showing some sign of recovery, up 2 percent y-o-y for the same period with 17 percent volume growth, mainly driven by food and textiles.

    The report states that transition to a market determined exchange rate has allowed the rupee to find its new equilibrium quickly, thereby, successfully correcting the ‘exchange rate overvaluation’ of the last 5 years.

    The report has also acknowledged strong Fiscal performance in the First Quarter of FY2020 while stating Primary surplus of 0.6 percent of GDP and an overall deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP, about 1 percent of GDP better than programmed.

    In addition, Tax revenue growth was in double-digits (net of refunds) even though customs receipts and other external sector related taxes have suffered due to import compression.

    Key Concessions won by Government includes:

    Ceiling on NDA of SBP (Performance benchmark) has been enhanced to Rs 9.1 trn (8.7), an increase of Rs 339 billion in FY20.

    This is positive for growth and will be utilized for concessional financing for the export industry

    Ceiling on government guarantees has been enhanced to Rs 1.8trn (1.6), an increase of Rs 252 billion in FY20

    This is positive for growth and will allow government to settle the outstanding stock of circular debt

    Floor on FBR tax collections for FY20 has been revised lower to Rs 5.2trn (5.5), due to strong improvement in non-tax revenue

    During H1 Fy20, government non tax revenue collection has hit Rs 878 billion which is 75 percent of full year budgeted collection of Rs 1.16 trn.

    This is positive for growth and will ease the burden on public and businesses

    The finance ministry highlighted Current Economic Performance:

    Pakistan economy has witnessed significant improvements in recent months as evidenced from the performance of key economic indicators mentioned below:

    Exchange rate is stable for 5 months, Rupee appreciated by 3.2 percent (Rs/$ 160.1 to 154.89)(20th Dec, 2019), Stock Exchange 100-Index up 20.1 percent since 1st July, 2019 (33,996) to 40,832(20th Dec, 2019) , SBP FX Reserves increase to $ 10.8 billion (13th Dec, 2019), from 7.2 billion (June 2019) , Ease of Doing index up by 28 points (108/190) and World Bank rank Pakistan in Top 10 improvers.

    After 4 years of outflow, total foreign portfolio investment up $ 1.2 billion during Jul-Nov FY20 (-330 million last year). FDI increased to 850 million (477.3 million last year)↑ 78.1 percent. Total foreign investment reached to $2 billion (last year 147 million).

    Similarly, Incorporation of Companies increased 25.8 percent (7,177 from 5,707) during Jul-Nov FY2020.

    FBR tax collection grew by 16.8 percent to Rs 1615.2 billion during July-November, FY2020 against Rs 1382.9 billion last year. Within total FBR tax collection Domestic tax collection grew up 21.5 percent and Import taxes down 2.6 percent (import compression)

    On external side, Exports increased by 4.7 percent to $10.31 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $9.85 billion in the same period last year, while Imports decreased by 21.1 percent to $18.31 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $23.22 billion in the same period last year.

    Consequently, Trade deficit decreased 40.1 percent to $8.002 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $13.36 billion in the comparable period of last year.

    Cement dispatches increased by5.8 percent to 20.462 million ton (15.4million ton). Cement export increased 21.5 percent to 3.608 million ton (2.4 million ton).

    Other Developments include:

    PSDP releases system is accelerated. In this regard ways & means and Finance Division endorsement is eliminated.

    As a major development, PSX becomes best performing market as per Bloomberg in last three months. PSX benchmark KSE 100-Index gained around 10,500 point in last three months.

    Similarly, the Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to stable from negative.

    On external front, in the month of November, 2019 Exports increased 11.23 percent to $2.110 billion against $1.897 billion in the same month last year while Imports decreased 13.18 percent to $3.648 billion as compared with $4.202 billion in the comparable period last year.

    In October 2019, on M-o-M, LSM registered a growth 4.01 percent (Sep 1.9 percent), indicating upward trajectory. Cement dispatches increased 10.6 percent in November to 4.35 million ton (3.9 million ton).

    Another important development is that Karkey renegotiated to save Pakistan $ 1.2 billion.

    Circular Debt:

    Monthly flow decreased from Rs 38 billion in July 2019 to about Rs 10 billion. Targeted to be zero next year.

    Strategy for dealing with the stock of debt being finalized.

    Protection for lower end consumers <300 from price rationalization.

    More effective recovery/detection of electricity theft (>50 million).

    Ministry of Energy will issue an additional Rs 250 billion Sukuks (with government guarantee) in FY2020 to retire the CPPA liabilities of the IPPs.

    Compact for Jobs & Growth

    Scale up Affordable Housing devised by Naya Pakistan Housing Authority

    Additional budgetary allocation of Rs 20 billion to 30 billion in FY2020 to cover the 10 percent down payment by beneficiaries of affordable housing. The total impact of this stimulus to the economy would be equivalent to Rs 200 billion to Rs 300 billion.

    Tax Credits equal to 10 percent of the amount of expense related to these projects including labour related costs will be allowed to the developer for the first two years

    Exporter’s package

    Additional credit of Rs 200 billion for exporters under the Export Finance Scheme (EFS) in FY2020

    The interest rate differential (between Kibor and EFS markup) will be paid by additional Rs 10 billion subsidy by the government in FY2020

    This will boost export sector and reduce their cost of doing business

    SBP will give additional Rs 100 billion worth of lending to the exporters, to be subsidized by government through SBP profits.

  • FBR needs to collect Rs2,198 billion in first half of current fiscal year

    FBR needs to collect Rs2,198 billion in first half of current fiscal year

    KARACHI: Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is required to collect Rs2,198 billion during first half of the current fiscal year as per revised performance criteria of International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    The revenue collecting agency has failed to achieve the first quarter performance criteria.

    According to Country Report Pakistan released by IMF on Monday the actual performance criteria for revenue collection was Rs2,367 billion during first half (July – December) of current fiscal year, which has been revised downward by Rs169 billion to Rs2,198 billion.

    This shows that the FBR will need to collect Rs590 billion in the month of December 2019 to achieve the revised performance criteria.

    The FBR’s provisional collection during first five months (July – November) 2019/2020 was Rs1,608 billion.

    As per IMF documents the FBR failed to achieve the first quarter (July – September) 2019/2020 target of Rs1,071 billion and its collection was at Rs964 billion.

    The actual revenue collection target for current fiscal year was Rs5,550 billion. However, the indicative target as per IMF documents has also been revised downward to Rs5,238 billion.

    The FBR has to raise revenue collection to Rs3,520 billion by March 2020 in order to ensure the desired target for current fiscal year.

    As per IMF documents: “Tax revenue is now expected to be 0.5 percent of GDP lower than originally expected: while domestic collection is envisaged to remain strong, growing by over 25 percent y-o-y over FY 2020, growth in trade-related tax revenues is expected to remain subdued as declining imports continue to weigh on collections—more than 40 percent of total tax revenue in Pakistan is collected at the import stage.”

    The FBR has been given revised Indicative Targets for end December 2019 including net tax collection to recognize the faster than expected external adjustment negatively impacting customs revenue, besides net accumulation of tax refund arrears to capture the authorities plan to reflect the end-June stock of tax refund arrears.

  • IMF board approves $452.4 million as second tranche for Pakistan

    IMF board approves $452.4 million as second tranche for Pakistan

    KARACHI: International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its board meeting held on December 19, 2019 approved second tranche of about $452.4 million under its total $6 billion loan program for Pakistan.

    The Executive Board of the IMF on December 19, 2019 completed the first review of Pakistan’s economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

    The completion of the review will allow the authorities to draw SDR 328 million (about US$ 452.4 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 1,044 million (about US$ 1,440 million), said a press release issued by the IMF.

    The Fund observed that Pakistan’s economic reform program is on track. Decisive policy implementation by the Pakistani authorities is helping to preserve economic stability aiming to put the economy on the path of sustainable growth.

    Transition to a market-determined exchange rate has been orderly; inflation has started to stabilize, mitigating the impact on the most vulnerable groups of the population.

    The Pakistani authorities remain committed to expanding the social safety nets, reducing poverty, and narrowing the gender gap, the IMF said.

    The Executive Board approved the 39-month, SDR 4,268 million (about $6 billion at the time of approval of the arrangement, or 210 percent of quota) EFF for Pakistan on July 3, 2019.

    Following the Executive Board’s decision, David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

    “Pakistan’s program is on track and has started to bear fruit. However, risks remain elevated. Strong ownership and steadfast reform implementation are critical to entrench macroeconomic stability and support robust and balanced growth.

    “The authorities are committed to sustaining the progress on fiscal adjustment to place debt on a downward path. The planned reforms include strengthening tax revenue mobilization, including the elimination of tax exemptions and loopholes, and prudent expenditure policies. Preparations for a comprehensive tax policy reform should start early to ensure timely implementation. Enhanced social safety nets will help alleviate social costs and build support for reforms.

    “The flexible, market-determined exchange rate remains essential to cushion the economy against external shocks and rebuild reserve buffers. The current monetary stance is appropriately tight and should only be eased once disinflation is firmly entrenched. Strengthening the State Bank of Pakistan’s autonomy and governance will support these efforts.

    “Faster progress is needed to improve the AML/CFT framework, supported by technical assistance from the IMF and other capacity development providers. Swift adoption of all the necessary measures is needed to exit the FATF’s list of jurisdictions with AML/CFT deficiencies.

    “The authorities have adopted a comprehensive plan to address the accumulation of arrears in the power sector. Its full implementation is key to improve collection, reduce losses, and enhance governance. Timely and regular adjustment of energy tariffs will bring the sector in line with cost recovery.

    “Efforts are ongoing to further improve the business environment, strengthen governance, and foster private sector investment. Reform of the state-owned enterprise sector will help put Pakistan’s public finances on a sustainable path and have positive spillovers by leveling the playing field and improving the provision of services.”

  • IMF board to meet on December 19 to review Pakistan program

    IMF board to meet on December 19 to review Pakistan program

    KARACHI: The board of International Monetary Fund (IMF) will meet on December 19, 2019 to review Pakistan’s loan program and consider releasing next tranche.

    Gerry Rice, Director Communication, IMF in a press briefing on Thursday said that the IMF had a $6 billion program to support IMF’s economic reforms.

    “We had a mission there in November and the communication around that with a preliminary assessment of where we think Pakistan stands.”

    Which is that the program is on track and we reached a staff-level agreement on what we call the first review. You can read about that in more detail on our website.

    We had the preliminary assessment from staff after that mission to Pakistan and the board will meet to discuss that first review on Thursday, December 19th.

    What that indicates is that all prior actions and performance criteria under the program with Pakistan have been met. And that the financing assurances needed for the program to go forward are in place.

  • Pakistan’s exchange rate reflecting actual economic conditions: IMF

    Pakistan’s exchange rate reflecting actual economic conditions: IMF

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) affirmed on Wednesday that Pakistan’s exchange rate now better reflects the actual economic conditions of the country.

    (more…)
  • FBR taking significant steps to improve tax administration: IMF

    FBR taking significant steps to improve tax administration: IMF

    ISLAMABAD: International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday said that Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is undertaking significant steps to improve tax administration and its interface with taxpayers.

    An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, visited Islamabad and Karachi during September 16–20, 2019 to take stock of economic developments since the start of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and discuss progress in the implementation of economic policies.

    A full mission for the first review under the EFF, is planned for late-October. At the conclusion of the staff visit, Ramirez Rigo issued the following statement:

    “While the authorities’ economic reform program is still in its early stages, there has been progress in some key areas. The transition to a market-determined exchange rate has started to deliver positive results on the external balance, exchange rate volatility has diminished, monetary policy is helping to control inflation, and the SBP has improved its foreign exchange buffers.

    “There has been a significant improvement in tax revenue collections, with taxes showing double-digit growth net of exporters refunds. Moreover, the FBR is undertaking significant steps to improve tax administration and its interface with taxpayers. Staff and the authorities have analyzed the worse than expected fiscal results of FY2018/19, which were partially the result of one-off factors and should not jeopardize the ambitious fiscal targets for FY2019/20. Importantly, the social spending measures in the program have been implemented.

    “The near-term macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged from the time of the program approval, with growth projected at 2.4 percent in FY2019/20, inflation expected to decline in the coming months, and the current account adjusting more rapidly than anticipated. However, domestic and international risks remain, and structural economic challenges persist. In this context, the authorities need to press ahead with their reform agenda.

    “In order to complete the first review, an IMF staff team plans to return to Pakistan in late-October to assess the end-September program targets.”

  • Reform program results encouraging, SBP tells IMF

    Reform program results encouraging, SBP tells IMF

    KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that initial results from the reform program are encouraging.

    SBP Governor Dr. Reza Baqir told a delegation of IMF led by the Director Middle East and Central Asia Department, Jihad Azour on Thursday. He was accompanied by the IMF Mission Chief to Pakistan, Ernesto Ramirez Rigo; Resident Representative of IMF for Pakistan, Ms. Teresa Daban Sanchez; and Special Assistant to the Director of the IMF’s Communications Department, Olga Stankova. The delegation also met with senior management of the SBP.

    The SBP governor said that the earlier volatility in the exchange market and associated uncertainty had subsided and confidence was slowly improving.

    “Inflation had risen due to the economic imbalances accumulated from previous years but inflationary pressures were expected to recede in the second half of the current fiscal year.”

    Nevertheless, the governor emphasized that these were the early stages of the reform process and it was essential to sustain the reform momentum and to keep policies focused on securing stability and promoting sustainable and shared growth.

    He noted that Pakistan has embarked on its home-grown economic reform program and said that he looked forward to a continuing fruitful partnership with the IMF and other stakeholders in the international financial community to support this reform program.

    He observed that the transition to a market-based exchange rate system, building foreign exchange reserves, and bringing down inflation were key elements of the SBP’s reform program to restore financial stability and lay the foundations for sustainable and shared growth.

    In his discussions with the SBP, Azour shared his views on how central banks in the region were responding to the challenges being faced by them particularly with regard to capital flows, the role of technology, and the role of central banks in economic management, amongst other areas.

    Azour looked forward to a continuing partnership with the State Bank.

  • Pakistan not renegotiating IMF-program

    Pakistan not renegotiating IMF-program

    ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is not renegotiating IMF program and the country remains committed to implement the policies and reforms spelled out in the IMF-supported program, said a clarification issued on Friday.

    A certain news item published on 6th September 2019 has reported that the IMF is sending an SOS mission to Pakistan owing to the fiscal outcomes of FY 2018-2019. The news item has also claimed that programme may be renegotiated.

    It is clarified that both these assertions are completely incorrect are not based on actual ground realities.

    The upcoming IMF Mission is a staff level visit and coincides with the visit of the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund.

    The Director’s visit to Pakistan had been planned for September soon after the finalisation of the programme. As such, it is absolutely erroneous to construe that the IMF staff level mission is any kind of SOS mission as it had already been planned much earlier. The claim that the IMF programme is being renegotiated is equally misconceived.

    “The Government of Pakistan remains firmly committed to implement the policies and reforms spelled out in the IMF-supported program.”

    As indicated in the program documents, the IMF-supported program will be monitored and reviewed according to a calendar of quarterly reviews. The first one is scheduled to take place at some point in December.

    Our understanding is that as part of our technical work program, an IMF team will come on a routine Staff Visit in mid September 16-20. It must also be emphasised that after the initial adjustments, the economy is rapidly stabilising, in particular the external sector, and that the current fiscal year will yield some very positive economic outcomes.

  • Imran Khan discusses economic reforms with IMF chief

    Imran Khan discusses economic reforms with IMF chief

    WASHINGTON: Prime Minister Imran Khan on Sunday met David Lipton, Acting Managing Director of International Monetary Fund to discuss economic reform program.

    David Lipton, Acting Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement today, following his meeting with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan:

    “I was pleased to meet Prime Minister Khan of Pakistan today in Washington, DC. We discussed recent economic developments and the implementation of the authority’s economic reform program supported by the IMF.

    “Their program aims to stabilize the economy, strengthen institutions, and thereby put Pakistan on a path of sustainable and balanced growth.

    “I highlighted the need to mobilize domestic tax revenue now and on into the future to provide reliably for needed social and development spending, while placing debt on a firm downward trend.

    “The IMF, together with other international partners, is working closely with the government of Pakistan to support the implementation of the authorities’ economic reform program.”

  • FBR not to reduce GST below 17 percent on petroleum products

    FBR not to reduce GST below 17 percent on petroleum products

    KARACHI: Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to maintain general sales tax at 17 percent on all petroleum products in coming months as agreed by the Pakistani authorities with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Pakistan has committed with the IMF for taking many steps for curbing powers of authorities in issuing statutory regulatory orders (SROs), eliminating exemptions and maintaining GST on petroleum products at 17 percent.

    Through SRO 700(I)/2019 dated June 30, 2019, the FBR notified sales tax at 17 percent on supply of all petroleum products for the month of July 2019. The petroleum products are included: petrol, high speed diesel, kerosene oil and light speed diesel oil.

    The Letter of Intent (LoI) presented by Pakistan for IMF loan program, the country assured the fund of eliminate the legal authorization for the executive to grant tax exemptions/concessions through Statutory Regulatory Orders (SROs) without prior National Assembly approval.

    “We understand that the use of SRO needs to be subject to greater scrutiny and limited discretion. To that end, we have adopted the necessary revisions and amendments to the various relevant tax ordinances to further limit or eliminate the use of SROs to genuine emergencies, in line with best international practices,” according to the LoI.

    The authorities have also assured the Fund of refraining from issuing any SRO reducing the GST rate below 17 percent on petroleum products.

    For Modernize the Public Finance Management Framework, Pakistan has adopted an organic budget law that will minimize variance in budget authorizations during the year, which shall also require ex-post parliamentary approval, restrict virements, expand the content of annual budget statements, define accounting standards, and provide the legal basis for a well-defined cash management system and establishment of a treasury single account (TSA).

    For Enforcing fiscal discipline, this will include strengthening the enforcement mechanism of the FRDLA through aligning the annual report presented by the Minister of Finance (MoF) to the National Assembly with the content and analysis prescribed in the Act. “Also, we will expand the capacity of the MoF for macro-fiscal work. Moreover, proper identification and monitoring of fiscal risks from SOEs, PPPs, IPPs and development projects will be strengthened through the establishment of a fiscal risk unit in the MoF, which will work in coordination with the PPP Authority.

    “We are aware that PPP projects, while bringing great benefits, can also be the source of important risks. Thus, we are committed to strengthening the PPP legal framework. To this end, we are conducting a legal analysis of the current system to determine if amendments to the PPP law are required or, alternatively, whether enacting secondary legislation is sufficient, drawing on the expertise of our development partners.

    “We will also make sure that proposed financial vehicles such as the Pakistan Infrastructure Bank is created in line with best international governance standards.”

    Pakistani authorities informed the Fund about creating a Treasury office that would conduct sound commitment controls and cash management, closely coordinating with the debt management unit.

    “We will strengthen the debt management office and will ensure greater coordination across the different relevant units. Elements of this strategy will include centralizing the issuance and management of public debt and developing a new Medium-Term Debt Strategy. To support our consolidation efforts and reduce our financing requirements, we will lengthen the maturity profile of public debt and will introduce new market instruments to widen the investors’ base, also transparently accounting for all borrowing and contingent liabilities.

    “We will ensure that any collateralized public external debt or external arrears would be properly accounted.”