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  • IMF approves $1.38 billion for Pakistan to address economic impact of COVID-19 shock

    IMF approves $1.38 billion for Pakistan to address economic impact of COVID-19 shock

    KARACHI:  The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the disbursement of $1.386 billion under the Rapid Financing Instrument to address the economic impact of the Covid-19 shock, according to statement received here late Thursday.

    With the near-term outlook deteriorating sharply, the authorities have swiftly put in place measures to contain the impact of the shock and support economic activity. Crucially, health spending has been increased and social support strengthened, it added.

    As the impact of the COVID-19 shock subsides, the authorities’ renewed commitment to implement the policies in the existing EFF will help support the recovery and strengthen resilience.

    The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a purchase of Pakistan under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) equivalent to SDR 1,015.5 million (US$ 1.386 billion, 50 percent of quota) to meet the urgent balance of payment needs stemming from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    While uncertainty remains high, the near-term economic impact of COVID-19 is expected to be significant, giving rise to large fiscal and external financing needs. The IMF support will help to provide a backstop against the decline in international reserves and provide financing to the budget for targeted and temporary spending increases aimed at containing the pandemic and mitigating its economic impact.

    The IMF remains closely engaged with the Pakistani authorities and as the impact of the COVID-19 shock subsides will resume discussions as part of the current EFF.

    Following the Executive Board discussion, Geoffrey Okamoto, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the following statement:

    “The outbreak of Covid-19 is having a significant impact on the Pakistani economy. The domestic containment measures, coupled with the global downturn, are severely affecting growth and straining external financing. This has created an urgent balance of payments need.

    “In this context of heightened uncertainty, IMF emergency financing under the Rapid Financing Instrument provides strong support to the authorities’ emergency policy response, preserving fiscal space for essential health spending, shoring up confidence, and catalyzing additional donor support.

    “In response to the crisis, the government of Pakistan has taken swift action to halt the community spread of the virus and introduced an economic stimulus package aimed at accommodating the spending needed to tackle the health emergency and supporting economic activity. Crucially, the authorities are increasing public health spending and strengthening social safety net programs to provide immediate relief to the most vulnerable. Similarly, the State Bank of Pakistan has adopted a timely set of measures, including a lowering of the policy rate and new refinancing facilities, to support liquidity and credit conditions and safeguard financial stability. In this context, the authorities’ policies should be targeted and temporary.

    “As the crisis abates, the authorities’ renewed commitment to the reforms in the existing Extended Fund Facility—in particular those related to fiscal consolidation strategy, energy sector, governance, and remaining AML/CFT deficiencies—will be crucial to entrench resilience, boost Pakistan’s growth potential, and deliver broad based benefits for all Pakistanis.

    “Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.”

  • Pakistan seeks $1.4 billion additional IMF loan

    Pakistan seeks $1.4 billion additional IMF loan

    ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has initiated negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for an additional grant of $1.4 billion on fast track basis.

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  • IMF board to decide $450 million disbursement to Pakistan in April

    IMF board to decide $450 million disbursement to Pakistan in April

    KARACHI: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will decide disbursement of $450 million in early April 2020, a statement said on Thursday.

    The IMF issued the press release stating:

    “Following discussions between International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Pakistani authorities in Islamabad from February 3-13, which continued from the IMF headquarters in recent days, IMF staff and the Pakistani authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on policies and reforms needed to complete the second review of the authorities reform program supported under the EFF.

    “The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF management and consideration by the Executive Board, which is expected in early April. Completion of the review will enable disbursement of SDR 328 million (around US$450 million).”

    Earlier on February 14, 2020, the IMF issued the following press release:

    “An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, visited Islamabad during February 3-13, to initiate discussions on the second review of the authorities’ economic reform program supported under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement.

    “At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Ramirez Rigo made the following statement:

    “The IMF staff team had constructive and productive discussions with the Pakistani authorities and commended them on the considerable progress made during the last few months in advancing reforms and continuing with sound economic policies. The mission and the authorities made significant progress in the discussions on policies and reforms. In the coming days progress will continue to pave the way for the IMF Executive Board’s consideration of the review.

    “The macroeconomic outlook remains broadly as expected at the time of the first review. Economic activity has stabilized and remains on the path of gradual recovery. The current account deficit has declined, helped by the real exchange rate that is now broadly in line with fundamentals, while international reserves continue to rebuild at a pace considerably faster than anticipated. Inflation should start to see a declining trend as the pass-through of exchange rate depreciation has been absorbed and supply-side constraints appear to be temporary. Fiscal performance in the first half of the fiscal year remained strong, with the general government registering a primary surplus of 0.7 percent of GDP on the back of strong domestic tax revenue growth. Development and social spending have been accelerated.”

  • Fiscal reforms to help Pakistan generate funding to meet SDGs targets: IMF official

    Fiscal reforms to help Pakistan generate funding to meet SDGs targets: IMF official

    KARACHI: The ongoing fiscal reform in Pakistan will help the country to generate funding to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targets under the UN 2030 agenda, said Athanasios Arvanitis, Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Referring to the IMF program with Pakistan, Arvanitis remarked that it is important for the government to focus on meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under the UN’s 2030 Agenda.

    He noted that ongoing fiscal reforms will not only put Pakistan’s public debt path on a sustainable footing but also build the foundation for providing crucial funding to meet these targets.

    He was addressing a seminar on ‘Managing Crises in Emerging Markets’ hosted by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) a day earlier, a press statement issued on Saturday.

    Athanasios Arvanitis highlighted some of the main similarities of crises across emerging markets, notably the role typically played by elevated levels of debt, high public and external deficits, inflexible exchange rates, lack of competitiveness, low saving and investment, and maturity and currency mismatches.

    Despite these similarities, he emphasized that there was no one-size-fits-all model for managing crises. Instead, the IMF focuses on different dimensions while assisting a country in developing a homegrown stabilization program.

    The approach emphasizes the need to diagnose the roots of a country’s crisis, trends and developments in the balance sheets of various economic agents and their interconnectedness, and country-specific dynamics that affect the political economy of reforms. In terms of designing stabilization programs, Arvanitis stressed the importance of country ownership and measures to provide support for vulnerable segments of the population.

    He also drew parallels for Pakistan from the experiences of managing crises in other emerging countries.

    Referring to the IMF program with Pakistan, Arvanitis remarked that it is important for the government to focus on meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under the UN’s 2030 Agenda. He noted that ongoing fiscal reforms will not only put Pakistan’s public debt path on a sustainable footing but also build the foundation for providing crucial funding to meet these targets.

    In his welcoming remarks, the Governor SBP, Dr. Reza Baqir, stated that the objective of holding the seminar was two-fold. First, to demonstrate that, in addition to its mandate of formulating monetary, exchange rate and financial stability policies, SBP endeavors to facilitate constructive debate on economic issues and is open to diverse points of view. Second, to highlight that Pakistan is not unique and there are many other emerging economies that have also faced economic crises and undergone difficult adjustments.

  • IMF acknowledges Pakistan’s reform program on track: finance ministry

    IMF acknowledges Pakistan’s reform program on track: finance ministry

    ISLAMABAD: The ministry of finance has said that International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged Pakistan’s reform program on track and business and market confidence is returning.

    In a statement on Sunday, the finance ministry highlighted IMF Board Assessment key economic performance indicators.

    It said that on the completion of first review of Pakistan’s economic performance, IMF has acknowledged that Pakistan’s reform program is on track and already producing results.

    Decisive policy implementation has started to address the deep-seated problems of Pakistan’s economy and to reverse its large imbalances, preserving financial stability.

    The report acknowledges that the business climate has improved, and market confidence is returning.

    IMF further adds in its assessment that the Government recognizes that structural reforms, especially in SoE sector are key to revive economic activity and growth.

    IMF has released SDR 328 million (about $ 452.4 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 1,044 million (approx $1.45 billion).

    The report has confirmed that End-September performance criteria (PCs) were observed with wide margins. These include

    — Zero budgetary borrowing from SBP

    — Primary budget deficit ceiling

    — Ceiling on government guarantees

    — Zero external public payment arrears

    — SBP net international reserves (NIR), net domestic assets (NDA), and swaps/forwards targets all met

    In addition to above, all structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-September, except the SB on AML/CFT, were completed.

    With regard to inflation outlook, IMF has lowered Inflation projection for FY20 to 11.8 percent, down from 13 percent earlier on account of this fact that the administrative and energy tariff adjustments are expected to offset the effects from weak domestic demand. Thereafter, inflation is expected to converge to 5-7 percent.

    The report confirms that inflation has been started to stabilize, along with core inflation, and the SBP stance is appropriate (no need for further rate hikes).

    However, we are of the view that we will do much better than IMF projection. As inflation during Jul-Nov was 10.8 percent and with measures taken we target to bring inflation down to 5 percent over the medium term.

    With regard to the external sector, significant improvement has been witnessed. Overall, Current Account Deficit (CAD) shrunk by almost two-thirds (74 percent) in the Q1 FY 20 compared to the same period of FY 2019. CAD is projected to decline to 2.4 percent of GDP in FY20 (4.9 percent), which is lower than earlier IMF forecasts of 2.6 percent.

    Total imports fell by 23 percent y-o-y in Q1 of FY2020, but imports of machinery and equipment were more resilient, rising about 2 percent y-o-y. Exports are showing some sign of recovery, up 2 percent y-o-y for the same period with 17 percent volume growth, mainly driven by food and textiles.

    The report states that transition to a market determined exchange rate has allowed the rupee to find its new equilibrium quickly, thereby, successfully correcting the ‘exchange rate overvaluation’ of the last 5 years.

    The report has also acknowledged strong Fiscal performance in the First Quarter of FY2020 while stating Primary surplus of 0.6 percent of GDP and an overall deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP, about 1 percent of GDP better than programmed.

    In addition, Tax revenue growth was in double-digits (net of refunds) even though customs receipts and other external sector related taxes have suffered due to import compression.

    Key Concessions won by Government includes:

    Ceiling on NDA of SBP (Performance benchmark) has been enhanced to Rs 9.1 trn (8.7), an increase of Rs 339 billion in FY20.

    This is positive for growth and will be utilized for concessional financing for the export industry

    Ceiling on government guarantees has been enhanced to Rs 1.8trn (1.6), an increase of Rs 252 billion in FY20

    This is positive for growth and will allow government to settle the outstanding stock of circular debt

    Floor on FBR tax collections for FY20 has been revised lower to Rs 5.2trn (5.5), due to strong improvement in non-tax revenue

    During H1 Fy20, government non tax revenue collection has hit Rs 878 billion which is 75 percent of full year budgeted collection of Rs 1.16 trn.

    This is positive for growth and will ease the burden on public and businesses

    The finance ministry highlighted Current Economic Performance:

    Pakistan economy has witnessed significant improvements in recent months as evidenced from the performance of key economic indicators mentioned below:

    Exchange rate is stable for 5 months, Rupee appreciated by 3.2 percent (Rs/$ 160.1 to 154.89)(20th Dec, 2019), Stock Exchange 100-Index up 20.1 percent since 1st July, 2019 (33,996) to 40,832(20th Dec, 2019) , SBP FX Reserves increase to $ 10.8 billion (13th Dec, 2019), from 7.2 billion (June 2019) , Ease of Doing index up by 28 points (108/190) and World Bank rank Pakistan in Top 10 improvers.

    After 4 years of outflow, total foreign portfolio investment up $ 1.2 billion during Jul-Nov FY20 (-330 million last year). FDI increased to 850 million (477.3 million last year)↑ 78.1 percent. Total foreign investment reached to $2 billion (last year 147 million).

    Similarly, Incorporation of Companies increased 25.8 percent (7,177 from 5,707) during Jul-Nov FY2020.

    FBR tax collection grew by 16.8 percent to Rs 1615.2 billion during July-November, FY2020 against Rs 1382.9 billion last year. Within total FBR tax collection Domestic tax collection grew up 21.5 percent and Import taxes down 2.6 percent (import compression)

    On external side, Exports increased by 4.7 percent to $10.31 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $9.85 billion in the same period last year, while Imports decreased by 21.1 percent to $18.31 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $23.22 billion in the same period last year.

    Consequently, Trade deficit decreased 40.1 percent to $8.002 billion during July-November, FY2020 against $13.36 billion in the comparable period of last year.

    Cement dispatches increased by5.8 percent to 20.462 million ton (15.4million ton). Cement export increased 21.5 percent to 3.608 million ton (2.4 million ton).

    Other Developments include:

    PSDP releases system is accelerated. In this regard ways & means and Finance Division endorsement is eliminated.

    As a major development, PSX becomes best performing market as per Bloomberg in last three months. PSX benchmark KSE 100-Index gained around 10,500 point in last three months.

    Similarly, the Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to stable from negative.

    On external front, in the month of November, 2019 Exports increased 11.23 percent to $2.110 billion against $1.897 billion in the same month last year while Imports decreased 13.18 percent to $3.648 billion as compared with $4.202 billion in the comparable period last year.

    In October 2019, on M-o-M, LSM registered a growth 4.01 percent (Sep 1.9 percent), indicating upward trajectory. Cement dispatches increased 10.6 percent in November to 4.35 million ton (3.9 million ton).

    Another important development is that Karkey renegotiated to save Pakistan $ 1.2 billion.

    Circular Debt:

    Monthly flow decreased from Rs 38 billion in July 2019 to about Rs 10 billion. Targeted to be zero next year.

    Strategy for dealing with the stock of debt being finalized.

    Protection for lower end consumers <300 from price rationalization.

    More effective recovery/detection of electricity theft (>50 million).

    Ministry of Energy will issue an additional Rs 250 billion Sukuks (with government guarantee) in FY2020 to retire the CPPA liabilities of the IPPs.

    Compact for Jobs & Growth

    Scale up Affordable Housing devised by Naya Pakistan Housing Authority

    Additional budgetary allocation of Rs 20 billion to 30 billion in FY2020 to cover the 10 percent down payment by beneficiaries of affordable housing. The total impact of this stimulus to the economy would be equivalent to Rs 200 billion to Rs 300 billion.

    Tax Credits equal to 10 percent of the amount of expense related to these projects including labour related costs will be allowed to the developer for the first two years

    Exporter’s package

    Additional credit of Rs 200 billion for exporters under the Export Finance Scheme (EFS) in FY2020

    The interest rate differential (between Kibor and EFS markup) will be paid by additional Rs 10 billion subsidy by the government in FY2020

    This will boost export sector and reduce their cost of doing business

    SBP will give additional Rs 100 billion worth of lending to the exporters, to be subsidized by government through SBP profits.

  • FBR needs to collect Rs2,198 billion in first half of current fiscal year

    FBR needs to collect Rs2,198 billion in first half of current fiscal year

    KARACHI: Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is required to collect Rs2,198 billion during first half of the current fiscal year as per revised performance criteria of International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    The revenue collecting agency has failed to achieve the first quarter performance criteria.

    According to Country Report Pakistan released by IMF on Monday the actual performance criteria for revenue collection was Rs2,367 billion during first half (July – December) of current fiscal year, which has been revised downward by Rs169 billion to Rs2,198 billion.

    This shows that the FBR will need to collect Rs590 billion in the month of December 2019 to achieve the revised performance criteria.

    The FBR’s provisional collection during first five months (July – November) 2019/2020 was Rs1,608 billion.

    As per IMF documents the FBR failed to achieve the first quarter (July – September) 2019/2020 target of Rs1,071 billion and its collection was at Rs964 billion.

    The actual revenue collection target for current fiscal year was Rs5,550 billion. However, the indicative target as per IMF documents has also been revised downward to Rs5,238 billion.

    The FBR has to raise revenue collection to Rs3,520 billion by March 2020 in order to ensure the desired target for current fiscal year.

    As per IMF documents: “Tax revenue is now expected to be 0.5 percent of GDP lower than originally expected: while domestic collection is envisaged to remain strong, growing by over 25 percent y-o-y over FY 2020, growth in trade-related tax revenues is expected to remain subdued as declining imports continue to weigh on collections—more than 40 percent of total tax revenue in Pakistan is collected at the import stage.”

    The FBR has been given revised Indicative Targets for end December 2019 including net tax collection to recognize the faster than expected external adjustment negatively impacting customs revenue, besides net accumulation of tax refund arrears to capture the authorities plan to reflect the end-June stock of tax refund arrears.

  • IMF board approves $452.4 million as second tranche for Pakistan

    IMF board approves $452.4 million as second tranche for Pakistan

    KARACHI: International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its board meeting held on December 19, 2019 approved second tranche of about $452.4 million under its total $6 billion loan program for Pakistan.

    The Executive Board of the IMF on December 19, 2019 completed the first review of Pakistan’s economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

    The completion of the review will allow the authorities to draw SDR 328 million (about US$ 452.4 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 1,044 million (about US$ 1,440 million), said a press release issued by the IMF.

    The Fund observed that Pakistan’s economic reform program is on track. Decisive policy implementation by the Pakistani authorities is helping to preserve economic stability aiming to put the economy on the path of sustainable growth.

    Transition to a market-determined exchange rate has been orderly; inflation has started to stabilize, mitigating the impact on the most vulnerable groups of the population.

    The Pakistani authorities remain committed to expanding the social safety nets, reducing poverty, and narrowing the gender gap, the IMF said.

    The Executive Board approved the 39-month, SDR 4,268 million (about $6 billion at the time of approval of the arrangement, or 210 percent of quota) EFF for Pakistan on July 3, 2019.

    Following the Executive Board’s decision, David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

    “Pakistan’s program is on track and has started to bear fruit. However, risks remain elevated. Strong ownership and steadfast reform implementation are critical to entrench macroeconomic stability and support robust and balanced growth.

    “The authorities are committed to sustaining the progress on fiscal adjustment to place debt on a downward path. The planned reforms include strengthening tax revenue mobilization, including the elimination of tax exemptions and loopholes, and prudent expenditure policies. Preparations for a comprehensive tax policy reform should start early to ensure timely implementation. Enhanced social safety nets will help alleviate social costs and build support for reforms.

    “The flexible, market-determined exchange rate remains essential to cushion the economy against external shocks and rebuild reserve buffers. The current monetary stance is appropriately tight and should only be eased once disinflation is firmly entrenched. Strengthening the State Bank of Pakistan’s autonomy and governance will support these efforts.

    “Faster progress is needed to improve the AML/CFT framework, supported by technical assistance from the IMF and other capacity development providers. Swift adoption of all the necessary measures is needed to exit the FATF’s list of jurisdictions with AML/CFT deficiencies.

    “The authorities have adopted a comprehensive plan to address the accumulation of arrears in the power sector. Its full implementation is key to improve collection, reduce losses, and enhance governance. Timely and regular adjustment of energy tariffs will bring the sector in line with cost recovery.

    “Efforts are ongoing to further improve the business environment, strengthen governance, and foster private sector investment. Reform of the state-owned enterprise sector will help put Pakistan’s public finances on a sustainable path and have positive spillovers by leveling the playing field and improving the provision of services.”

  • IMF board to meet on December 19 to review Pakistan program

    IMF board to meet on December 19 to review Pakistan program

    KARACHI: The board of International Monetary Fund (IMF) will meet on December 19, 2019 to review Pakistan’s loan program and consider releasing next tranche.

    Gerry Rice, Director Communication, IMF in a press briefing on Thursday said that the IMF had a $6 billion program to support IMF’s economic reforms.

    “We had a mission there in November and the communication around that with a preliminary assessment of where we think Pakistan stands.”

    Which is that the program is on track and we reached a staff-level agreement on what we call the first review. You can read about that in more detail on our website.

    We had the preliminary assessment from staff after that mission to Pakistan and the board will meet to discuss that first review on Thursday, December 19th.

    What that indicates is that all prior actions and performance criteria under the program with Pakistan have been met. And that the financing assurances needed for the program to go forward are in place.

  • Pakistan’s exchange rate reflecting actual economic conditions: IMF

    Pakistan’s exchange rate reflecting actual economic conditions: IMF

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) affirmed on Wednesday that Pakistan’s exchange rate now better reflects the actual economic conditions of the country.

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