Tag: KSE-100

KARACHI: The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) posted a return of 10 percent during year 2019.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that KSE-100 index posted a return of 9.9 percent YoY during CY19 while USD-based return clocked-in at negative 1.4 percent.

First positive return after two years of consecutive negative returns, the analysts said.

Barring the last couple of months, CY19 was nothing short of a horror story for the equity market with a dominating bearish trend. During the year, the KSE-100 index crashed to a 5-Yr low of 28,765 points on August 16, 201919, which was a 22 percent contraction since December 2018 and a 31 percent decline on a YoY basis.

Stringent conditions attached with the USD 6 billion IMF bailout package such as 40 percent higher FBR tax revenue target, currency depreciation, cap on sovereign guarantees, electricity and gas tariff hikes were the sources of pessimism during the outgoing year.

Meanwhile, tension on the border with India following the air combat in Feb’19 had its own adverse effects on the overall sentiment.

Albeit, the domestic equity bourse showed a sharp inflection post its low in August 2019.

Till date, since its low the market has shown a remarkable rebound of 42 percent, and in effect turning the CY return positive.

Undoubtedly, dirt cheap valuations across the index and over-selling were pivotal factors for the impressive market performance but we see the economy entering into stabilization mode as a more sustainable and important reason.

Analysts at Topline Securities said that KSE-100 index during 4Q2019 recorded growth of 8,656 points/27 percent; which is the highest quarterly gain achieved by index since 3QCY09 to close at level of 40,735.

The recovery in equities was mainly led by improved macroeconomic factors which included 1) declining bond yields leading investors towards equities, 2) stable PKR/USD exchange rate, 3) Positive first quarterly review by IMF, 4) foreign investment in local debt securities, 5) anticipation of policy rate cut in 1H2020 & 6) current account surplus of USD70 million recorded in month of October.

Political uncertainty as always remained a key concern during the quarter. Departure of ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif to London, conditional extension to COAS for 6 months by supreme court and decision of death penalty to ex president Musharraf by special court were the main highlights.

KARACHI: The stock market gained 39 points on Monday despite selling pressure seen in major scrips.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 40,888 points as against 40,849 points showing an increase of 39 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that during the session market went up by 447 points, however, MoC saw erosion of all the gains and Index slipping by 33 points.

Selling pressure was mainly observed in Banking and E&P sectors.

Trading activity was mainly tilted towards year end closing activity, which propped up price of ENGRO, LUCK, HUBC and supported the index as well.

Power Sector saw trading volumes of 24.7 million shares, followed by Banks (18.6 million) and Cement (17.3 million).

Among scrips, KEL traded 19.1 million shares, followed by UNITY (10.7 million) and WTL (9.1 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Fertilizer (+62 points), Power (+45 points), Cement (+34 points), O&GMCs (+20 points), Banks (-153 points) and E&P (-29 points).

Volumes declined significantly from 237.6 million shares to 165.8 million shares. Average traded value also declined by 30 percent to reach US$ 42.8 million as against US$ 61.2 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include KEL, UNITY, WTL, BOP and FFL, which formed 32 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively include ENGRO (+74 points), LUCK (+30 points), HUBC (+22 points), KEL (+18 points) and PSO (+12 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include HBL (-63 points), MCB (-35 points), FFC (-27 points), UBL (-23 points), and BAHL (-21 points).

KARACHI: The stock market likely to stay during next week owing to transfer second IMF tranche and stable rupee value, analysts said.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limitd said that the market to be positive in the coming week.

With SBP reserves climbing up and stable Pak Rupee/USD parity the investors’ sentiment should remain positive.

Furthermore, Pakistan has received second tranche of $452 million of IMF loan. Moreover, new portfolio allocations are expected from the start of the New Year, which can improve the market sentiment and flows.

The KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is currently trading at a PER of 7.2x (2020) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 13.7x and while offering DY of ~6.6 percent versus ~2.5 percent offered by the region.

The market commenced on a negative note this week, losing 900 points during the intraday trading. Tensions on Indo-Pak border kept the momentum suppressed during the week. Bulls took over after IMF expressed contentment in first quarterly review regarding improvement in external side in the light of market determined exchange and steady improvement on the fiscal front.

Furthermore, IMF allowed Pakistan to change performance standards for issuance of sovereign guarantees. Albeit market closed at 40,848 points, gaining 16 points (up by 0.04 percent WoW) as 2019 approached its end.

Sector-wise positive contributions came from i) Commercial Banks (43 points), ii) Power Generation & Distribution (42 points), iii) Oil & Gas Marketing Companies (19 points), iv) Engineering (15 points), and v) Cement (13 points).

Whereas, negative sector-wise contribution came from i) Insurance (31 points), Tobacco (31), Automobile Parts & Accessories (21 points) and Fertilizers (17 points). Scrip-wise positive contributions were led by ENGRO (70 points), HUBC (55 points), OGDC (39 points), PSO (20 points) and UBL (18 points).

Foreign selling was witnessed this week clocking-in at USD 2.9 million compared to a net buy of USD 3.1 million last week. Selling was witnessed in Exploration & Production (USD 1.5 million) and Commercial Banks (USD 0.7 million).

On the domestic front, major buying was reported by Insurance Companies (USD 10.5 million) and Mutual Funds (USD 7.2 million). Average Volumes settled at 230 million shares (down by 23 percent WoW) while average value traded clocked-in at USD 54 million (down by 35 percent WoW).

KARACHI: The stock exchange fell by 279 points on Friday owing to selling pressure during trading sessions.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 40,849 points as against 41,128 points showing a decline of 279 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market moved both ways during the day with +162 points and -401 points, ending the session at -279 points.

Month end closing met anticipated flows from institutions that created selling pressure on the bourse.

O&GMCs, E&P, Power and Cement sectors remained under pressure, and even though MLCF managed to hit upper circuit, it couldn’t hold ground for much long and stock price dropped significantly, though remained positive.

Technology sector led the volumes with 49.2 million shares, followed by Cement (35.7 million) and O&GMCs (35.5 million). Among scrips, WTL led the volumes with 31.8 million, followed by UNITY (22.6 million) and HASCOLR (22.4 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Power (+35 points), Fertilizer (+29 points), Banks (-89 points), E&P (-63 points), Inv Banks (-28 points), Cement (-27 points) and Insurance (-26 points).

Volumes increased from 236.8 million shares to 267.6 million shares (+12 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 19 percent to reach US$ 61.2 million as against US$ 51.3 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include WTL, UNITY, HASCOLR1, MLCF and FFL, which formed 39 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively include ENGRO (+67 points), HUBC (+46 points), UBL (+6 points), HGFA (+5 points) and PMPK (+5 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include OGDC (-33 points), FFC (-25 points), DAWH (-24 points), HBL (-23 points), and MCB (-22 points).

KARACHI: The equity market registered an increase of 800 points on Thursday due to year end closing that requires financial institutions to manage the equity portfolios to avoid impairments.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 41,128 points as against 40,328 points showing an increase of 800 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market moved up significantly by 820 points, primarily due to year end closing that requires financial institutions to manage the equity portfolios to avoid impairments.

Buying activity was observed across the board, but focusing on Oil & Gas chain, including E&P sector stocks that showed OGDC trading near upper circuit.

Similarly, price gains were observed in Refinery and OMCs sectors.

Banking sector was no different with major performance from HBL and UBL.

Technology sector led the volumes with 33.6 million shares followed by O&GMCs (27.7 million) and Vanaspati (27.2 million).

Amogn scrips, UNITY saw trading volumes of 27.2 million, followed by WTL (21 million) and HASCOLR (17.8M).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (+360 points), E&P (+140 points), O&GMCs (+54 points), Power (+44 points) and Inv Banks (+35 points).

Volumes showed slight increase from 236.2 million shares to 236.8 million shares (+0.3 percent DoD).

Average traded value also declined by 10 percent to reach US$ 51.3 million as against US$ 56.5 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include UNITY, WTL, HASCOLR1, FFL and TRG, which formed 38 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively include HBL (+119 points), OGDC (+70 points), UBL (+56 points), BAHL (+51 points) and PPL (+44 points).

Stocks that contributed negatively include PAKT (-36 points), EFUG (-10 points), MUREB (-3 points), SCBPL (-2 points), and INDU (-2 points).

KARACHI: The stock market gained 320 points on Tuesday in mixed trading activities as buyers adopted cautious stance.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 40,328 points as against 40,008 points showing an increase of 320 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market oscillated between -553 points and +480 points today and closed the session +320 points.

The market opened on a negative note with -51 points and extended the losses later. Investors remained cautious in buying in oil chain, but gradually gained momentum by session end, which saw OGDC trading near upper circuit.

Food sector led the volumes with 28.6 million shares, followed by Technology (28.1 million) and Banks (27.9 million). Among scrips, FFL traded 25.9 million shares, followed by UNITY (13.4 million) and BOP (11.8 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include E&P (+91 points), O&GMCs (+36 points), Power (+35 points), Cement (+32 points) and Fertilizer (+26 points).

Volumes increased from 179.1 million shares to 236.2 million shares (+32 percent DoD). Average traded value also increased by 25 percent to reach US$ 56.5 million as against US$ 44.9 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include FFL, UNITY, BOP, TRG and WTL, which formed 31 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively include OGDC (+51 points), HUBC (+28 points), PPL (+23 points), LUCK (+22 points) and SNGP (+18 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include BAHL (-20 points), UBL (-10 points), SHFA (-8 points), BAFL (-5 points), and EFUG (-4 points).

KARACHI: The equity market fell by 825 points on Monday owing to profit taking in the last days of present year.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed at 40,008 points as against 40,833 points showing a decline of 825 points.

Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the market took a significant toll from the internal and external headwinds faced these days.

During MoC, index decline crossed -900 points, which built up throughout the day.

Market closed -825 points and closed the session with 274 stocks in decline. Selling was observed across the board, but was particularly seen in oil & gas chain.

PPL’s most anticipated discovery proved to be a miniscule one that dampened the investor sentiment.

Resultantly, PPL traded near lower circuits by the end of session. Cement sector led the volumes with 26.6 million shares, followed by Technology (23.1 million) and O&GMCs (22.7 million). Among scrips, WTL traded the most with 13.6 million shares, followed by HASCOLR (12.7 million) and UNITY (11.9 million).

Sectors contributing to the performance include Banks (-225 points), E&P (-174 points), Power (-71 points), Fertilizer (-66 points) and Inv Banks (-56 points).

Volumes declined from 180.7 million shares to 179.1 million shares (-1 percent DoD). Average traded value however, declined by 19 percent to reach US$ 44.9 million as against US$ 55.1 million.

Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include WTL, HASCOLR1, UNITY, FFL and FCCL, which formed 31 percent of total volumes.

Stocks that contributed positively include NESTLE (+9 points), INDU (+5 points), DGKC (+3 points), GHGL (+1 points) and INIL (+0 points). Stocks that contributed negatively include HBL (-93 points), PPL (-91 points), HUBC (-54 points), DAWH (-51 points), and OGDC (-49 points).

KARACHI: The stock market likely to cross 51,000 points during year 2020 owing to growth in earnings and justified price to earning ratio, analysts said on Monday.

The analysts at Arif Habib Limited in its report on Pakistan Strategy 2020, said that Pakistan equity market is expected to generate a total return of 25 percent during 2020.

They expect that the benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange to reach 51,000 points by December 2020. The index target mapping methodology included: earnings growth; justified PER; and target price mapping.

The analysts believed that the balance of payments front is quite manageable now with continuous decline in imports, thanks to Pak Rupee depreciation and taxation measures at large to curb imports, along with several inflows planned for the next year tagged with hot money flows which are expected to lead towards continuous increase in reserves of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The analysts said that the country has successfully managed to attract foreign investment in lucrative short term government papers. High yields coupled with strengthening currency have helped lure over $1.2 billion foreign investment in treasury bills, which is unprecedented in history. Further, this shows the confidence of foreign investors in the local currency parity and economic reforms, and could also trigger equities flows in the country in 2020.

Earnings growth in 2020 is estimated to be 14.4 percent, the double digit growth is attributable to earnings growth in heavy weight including commercial banks (41 percent), power (53 percent), fertilizers (12 percent) and E&P (10 percent), which have a cumulative around 61.7 percent weightage in the KSE-100 index. Higher net interest income coupled with stellar earning rebound in large banks shall stem growth in the banking sector, whereas power sector profitability mainly stem from CoD of HUBC’s 130MW coal-based power plant.

The analysts said that the local bourse is expected to amass strong returns in 2020 supported by ongoing PER re-rating hypothesis. The analysts view that firmness in external sector, stable foreign currency outlook, hot money inflows, increase in SBP foreign exchange reserves in external sector and strong earnings growth of over 14 percent will re-rate the market PE to ites mean average of 8.6x (14-year).

KARACHI: The stock market may gain on back of normal political conditions and hope of further improvements in economic indicators during next week.

Analysts Topline Securities said that after closing positively for seven consecutive weeks, KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed in red this week due to political pressures.

The index started on a positive note this week with momentum continuing from the previous week as expectation relating to the rollover of deposit amounting US$5 billion from UAE & Saudi Arabia was reported.

A decision by special court on former president Musharraf created a situation of conflict between judiciary and establishment which weighed negatively on investors.

However IMF has completed its first review of Pakistan’s economic performance & has depicted satisfaction on improving macroeconomic situation of country which is expected to be a material positive going forward.

Based on NCCPL data, foreigners bought US$3.15 million. On the local side, Mutual Fund were seller of US$8.4 million, & Banks were seller of US$6.6 million.