KARACHI: Domestic oil sales in Pakistan posted a three percent year-on-year growth in July 2020, driven by a surge in demand for furnace oil used in power generation and a general revival of economic activity. This growth reflects improved industrial operations and enhanced mobility following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.
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Domestic oil sales plunge by 35 percent in April
KARACHI: The domestic sales of petroleum products have plunged by 35 percent to 1.07 million tons in April 2020 as compared with 1.65 million tons in the same month of the last year.
However, the sales in April 2020 increased by three percent when compared with 1.03 million tons in March 2020.
Analysts at Arif Habib Limited attributed the increase in sales of petroleum products to: 1) Surge in sales of HSD on account of higher demand from agriculture sector given beginning of wheat harvesting season, and 2) Closure of Iran border resulting in lower availability of illegally dumped fuel.
Pertinently, sales of FO, MS and HSD witnessed a steep decline of 75 percent, 36 percent and 16 percent YoY to 0.07 million tons, 0.44 million tons and 0.55 million tons, respectively.
As per market sources, oil consumption witnessed a rising trend since the government opted for a ‘smart lockdown’ and issued Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for construction and export oriented industries.
However, if lockdown is extended (deadline is May 09, 2020) then this will be negative for May 2020 sales.
On a monthly basis, MS sales dropped by 21 percent MoM while HSD and FO volumes grew by 41 percent and 2 percent MoM respectively.
The analysts expect demand for furnace oil to increase in upcoming months due to higher demand of power in summer season coupled with historic low prices (FO touched USD 77/M.T on 22nd April’20) which may improve merit order of furnace oil based power plants.
During first ten months of current fiscal year, total White and Black Oil sales clocked-in at 13.35 million tons, depicting a decline of 13 percent YoY due to dip in sales volumes of MS, HSD and FO by 3 percent, 15 percent and 31 percent YoY, respectively.
Motor Gasoline sales witnessed a meager decline of 3 percent YoY to 5.99 million tons due to the Coronavirus. However, massive reduction in price will increase demand as customers will prefer petrol over Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales shrunk by 15 percent YoY to 5.15 million tons led by i) Sharp slowdown in Agriculture sector, ii) Negative growth of 3.03 percent YoY in the manufacturing sector of LSM, and iii) Availability of smuggled HSD from Iran, which is cheaper in contrast to official imported product.
Meanwhile, FO is being replaced by other sources namely Coal, Hydel and RLNG, resulting in a decline of 31 percent YoY to 1.68 million tons compared to 2.44 million tons in SPLY.
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Domestic oil sales fall by 14% on economic slowdown
KARACHI: The domestic oil sales have declined by 14 percent during July – February 2019/2020 due to economic slowdown.
According to statistics by Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC), the domestic oil sales fell to 11.24 million tons during first eight months of current fiscal year as compared with 13.1 million tons in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.
Analysts at Topline Securities said that the lower consumption was largely attributed to economic slowdown.
The sales of motor spirit (petrol) were flat at 5 million tons during the period under review. However, sales of furnace oil and high speed diesel fell by 33 percent and 14 percent respectively.
The analysts said that oil sale for Feb 2020 was decline by 26 percent YoY largely driven by a decline in HSD and FO volumes.
In absolute terms the decline was of 221,000 tons in HSD (-37 percent YoY). The lower consumption is largely attributed to the economic slowdown.
Ex-FO performance did not fare well as 26 percent YoY and 15 percent MoM decline is expected.
The slight uptick in FO volumes was witnessed in last month (Jan 2020) at the behest of a significant price decline. Since then FO prices have witnessed a gradual recovery.
HASCOL remained the top laggard with decline in volumes by 61 percent and 33 percent YoY and MoM, respectively.
Market share of the company in MS/HSD has declined by 430bps/810bps YoY. Similarly on MoM basis, market share is down by 160bps/250bps.
APL has gained market share in HSD and MS both by 390bps and 120bps MoM to 13.2 percent and 10.1 percent respectively.
PSO’s share in MS declined by 2.4 percent to settle at 35.4 percent. SHEL managed to maintain its market share at 11.7 percent mark in MS their main segment.
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Oil sales fall by 10% on slow economic activity
KARACHI: The domestic oil sales have declined by 10 percent during first seven months (July – January) 2019/2020 owing to slow economic activity.
Analysts at Topline Securities on Tuesday said that the oil sales slipped to 10,139,000 tons during first seven months of the current fiscal year showing decline of 10 percent.
The oil consumption in January 2020 fell by 13 percent year on year, where drop in sales was largely driven by 40 percent lower furnace oil sales due to government policy of moving away from FO-based power generation and 11 percent yoy decline in high speed diesel volumes amidst slow economic activity, particularly in the agriculture space.
However, on a sequential basis, oil sales witnessed limited decline of 2 percent month on month, supported by 88 percent MoM higher furnace oil offtake given government allowing partial resumption of FO-based power plants to support the local refineries and possible exports by Byco Petroleum.
High Speed Diesel sales were down by 13 percent Month on Month in January 2020, while motor spirit volumes declined by five percent MoM.
Pakistan State Oil sales declined by 16 percent YoY and 10 percent MoM in January 2020, however, during first seven months of current fiscal year sales remain 6 percent YoY higher.
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Oil sales show continuous decline for 8th consecutive quarter
KARACHI: The oil sales witnessed continued downward trend in first quarter of fiscal year 2019/2020 for 8th consecutive quarter and posted fall of 13 percent Year on Year (YoY).
Major decline was witnessed in Furnace Oil (FO) and Hi Speed Diesel (HSD) to the extent of 29 percent and 16 percent YoY, respectively, analysts at Topline Securities.
Quarterly sales in absolute terms clocked in at 4.4 million tons during 1QFY20, lowest in last 26 quarters. Excluding FO, sales are lowest in last 14 quarter low.
Diesel sales continues to fall (down 16 percent YoY) for 6th consecutive quarter on the pretext of slowdown in economy, slower transportation activities and smuggling from Iranian border.FO sales fell by 29 percent YoY due to its lower requirement in power generation after availability of relatively cheaper fuels like RLNG/coal.
During Sep 2019, oil sales went down by 19 percent YoY. On MoM basis, volumes were up 16 percent due to Eid holidays in August 2019.
Among companies, PSO outperformed industry and peers by increasing its volumetric sales by 11 percent during 1QFY20 vs. fall of 13 percent YoY in industry sales.
The company has increased its market share from 37 percent in 1QFY19 to 47 percent in 1QFY20 (flat QoQ).
Hascol underperformed industry by posting decline of 68 percent YoY in oil sales during 1QFY20. Resultantly, market share of the company fell to 5% in outgoing quarter vs. 12 percent in 1QFY19.
In Key risks to the sector include 1) further slowdown in the economy, 2) increase in turnover tax, and 3) currency depreciation.
Key risks to the sector include 1) further slowdown in the economy, 2) increase in turnover tax, and 3) currency depreciation.
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OMCs sales sharply decline by 25pc in 10 months
KARACHI: The sales of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) massively declined by 25 percent during first ten months (July – April) of current fiscal year owing to slowdown in economic activities.
The sales of OMCs fell to around 15.28 million tons during July – April 2018/2019 as compared with 20.4 million tons in the same period of the last fiscal year.
Analysts at Topline Securities attributed the massive fall in sales to slowdown in economic activities and sharp decline in furnace oil.
They said that Pakistan OMCs sales continued to suffer, where volumetric sales for April 2019 nosedived 16 percent YoY on back of 33 percent YoY lower furnace oil volumes and decline in high speed diesel volumes by 18 percent YoY.
FO sales continued to feel pinch amid availability of RLNG/Coal for power generation. While, HSD volumes are down on YoY basis due to slowdown in economic activities.
Petrol sales touched 20-Month high (in absolute terms), +2 percent YoY vs. +17 percent YoY in April 2018.
Lower growth in MS could be attributed to increase in its prices by around 15 percent YoY coupled with overall slowdown in economy.
In MS oil segment, PSO witnessed increase in market share by 4.3ppts YoY to 39.6 percent, while Hascol share has declined by 8.3ppts YoY to 7 percent as the company has changed its focus from higher volumes to higher margins.
Similarly, unlisted player GNO gained 3.4ppts YoY in its market share.
On HSD front, Hascol has lost 7.5ppts YoY in its market share to 7.1 percent, while GNO has gained 7.5ppts YoY and now commands 12 percent of the market.
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High Speed Diesel July- March sales hit decade low
KARACHI: The sales of High Speed Diesel (HSD) have declined to decade low due to slowdown in economy, analysts said on Tuesday.
In July – March 2018/2019, HSD sales decline (-20 percent YoY in 9MFY19) touched over decade low due to slowdown in economy. While Motor Spirit (MS or Petrol) growth remained limited to 1 percent YoY, almost 9-Year low on account of decline in Cars/Bikes sales by 4.5 percent/5 percent during 8MFY19, said analysts at Topline Securities.
Pakistan Oil Sales was down 18 percent YoY during Mar 2019, dragged by 50 percent YoY decline in Furnace Oil (FO) and 21 percent YoY drop in HSD sales.
FO sales decline continues due to its low usage in power generation after commencement of new RLNG and coal based power plants.
HSD sales remained on lower side on back of slowdown in economy as indicated by 7MFY19 Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) decline of 2.3 percent vs. 7 percent growth in 7MFY18.
Further, continuous smuggling from Iran could also be attributed to this decline.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) regained its market share during Mar 2019 by 5ppts and 3.5ppts MoM in MS and HSD sales respectively to 39 percent and 41 percent respectively. While, Hascol lost 4ppts and 6ppts MoM in both products.
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Domestic oil sales plunge by 28.45pc in seven months
KARACHI: The domestic oil sales have dropped by 28.45 percent to 10.74 million tons during July – January 2018/2019 as compared with 15.01 million tons in the same period of the last fiscal year.
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