Karachi, December 6, 2025 – Analysts at Topline Securities have highlighted Atlas Honda Limited (ATLH) as a top performer in the Pakistani motorcycle market, citing strong brand popularity, market share gains, and robust financial performance. In their annual 2026 strategy report, ATLH has been identified as an Alpha pick, with the potential to outperform benchmark index returns.
Why ATLH is Leading the 2-Wheeler Market
According to Topline Securities, ATLH’s leadership is supported by multiple factors:
1. Consumer Preference – Its motorcycles remain the first choice for Pakistani riders due to durability, fuel efficiency, and performance.
2. Rising Market Share – Following the exit or scale-back of several Chinese competitors, ATLH has strengthened its market position.
3. Strong Volumetric Growth – Despite a weak rural economy, ATLH achieved over 100% production utilization in the past three months.
4. Attractive Valuation & Dividends – The company maintains a policy to pay ~60% of earnings as dividends, offering strong total returns for investors.
Financial Snapshot and Forecasts
| Metric | MY26E | MY27F | MY28F |
| EPS (Rs) | 162.7 | 180.85 | 204.94 |
| Dividend (Rs) | 98 | 109 | 123 |
| Target Price (Rs) | 1,956 | – | – |
| Potential Upside | 39% | – | – |
| Dividend Yield | 8% | – | – |
ATLH has delivered a 10-year revenue and profit CAGR of 16% and 21%, respectively, with volumes rising ~7% CAGR, reflecting strong market consistency.
Industry Outlook
• Motorcycle sales are expected to grow 23% in MY26, rising from 1.2 million units to 1.5 million, driven by high demand for 125cc and 150cc bikes.
• ATLH is expected to maintain a market share of ~87%, with lead times of 7–15 days for popular models, showing strong demand.
• Gross Margins are improving due to better absorption of fixed costs, lower CRC prices, and favorable product mix, projected at 12.8% for MY26E and 12.6% for MY27-30F.
Competitive Landscape
• Import restrictions and currency devaluations led many Chinese competitors to scale back, boosting ATLH’s market share to 89% in MY24.
• New entrants largely focus on EV bikes, while petrol motorcycles dominate due to affordability and convenience.
Valuation and Risks
• Using a DCF (FCFE) approach with an 18% discount rate, ATLH’s target price is Rs1,956/share, implying a total return of 46% including dividends.
• The company trades at MY26E/MY27F PE of 8.66x/7.79x, below its 10-year average of 10.96x.
Key Risks: Increased competition, higher PKR devaluation, cost pressures, slower volume growth, and regulatory changes could affect performance.
Conclusion: With strong brand loyalty, rising market share, robust financials, and improving margins, ATLH is well-positioned to retain its leadership in Pakistan’s motorcycle market in the coming years.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.