KARACHI, January 11, 2026 — The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain range-bound in the coming week as traders watch closely to see if it can sustain its recent gains and break the critical 280-per-dollar level.
The rupee closed at 280.10 per dollar in the interbank market on Monday and finished the week at 280.02 on Friday, signaling relative stability amid persistent external pressures.
According to a report by Tresmark, strong remittance inflows are supporting Pakistan’s external stability, reducing reliance on exports. In December 2025, remittances reached $3.6 billion, up 16.5% YoY and 12.6% MoM. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose by $141 million, reaching $16.1 billion as of January 2, 2026.
Tresmark highlighted that aggregate short positions in the interbank market remain below $2 billion, in line with IMF targets, indicating that reserve accumulation is driven by liquidity mopping rather than buy-sell swaps. The report noted:
“The current trajectory implies a potential breach of the 280/$ level. However, with REER at 104.8, competitiveness is stretched, and the central bank should prioritize stability over signaling strength, especially as import demand recovers.”
A recent analysis by AKD Securities Limited emphasized that the FX market has remained stable over the past two and a half years, with the rupee consistently hovering near 280 per dollar. This stability is credited to crackdowns on illegal currency trading, smuggling, and hoarding, along with SBP reforms improving market functioning.
Key measures include semiannual FX reserve targets, improved transparency, and revised Foreign Exchange Exposure Limits (FEEL), allowing banks more flexibility to manage FX flows while maintaining risk management.
From June 2024 to September 2025, the SBP conducted net FX purchases of $9.7 billion, helping to bolster reserves. However, the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has risen from 97.8 in May 2025 to 104.8 in November 2025, reflecting higher inflation and rupee appreciation against the dollar.
Outlook: Traders expect USDPKR to remain range-bound next week, with potential two-way movements as both external and domestic factors continue to influence the currency market.