Karachi, March 15, 2026 – The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain largely stable in the short term, though rising global oil prices and upcoming external debt repayments could create pressure on the local currency against the US dollar.
According to a recent market assessment by Tresmark, the rupee is likely to stay range-bound over the coming weeks despite potential external challenges. The report notes that healthy remittance inflows during Ramadan are currently providing support to Pakistan’s foreign exchange market.
Analysts observed that foreign exchange forward premiums are trading above money market levels, indicating relatively comfortable liquidity in the forex market. Additionally, ongoing engagements between Pakistan’s economic team and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have contributed to a constructive sentiment in the financial markets.
However, the report highlighted that export-related inflows have slowed in recent weeks. To manage pressure on the currency, authorities appear to be staggering import payments so that the interbank market remains balanced on a daily basis. This strategy helps prevent sudden volatility in the rupee-dollar parity.
During the past week, the rupee traded within a narrow range in the interbank market. The currency closed at Rs279.37 per dollar on Monday and slightly improved to Rs279.31 by Friday, reflecting relative stability despite global market uncertainty.
Looking ahead, analysts warned of two major cash flow pressures. A significant oil payment cycle is expected shortly after Eid al-Fitr, while more than $1 billion will be required to meet upcoming Eurobond repayments.
The medium-term outlook for the rupee remains uncertain, largely due to fluctuating global oil prices and geopolitical risks linked to tensions in the Middle East. The report noted that the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz has made oil markets more volatile, as investors increasingly price in the risk of supply disruptions rather than actual shortages.
Another concern highlighted in the report is the long-term sustainability of remittance inflows. Pakistan has historically relied heavily on overseas remittances to stabilize its external account. However, if economic conditions weaken in Gulf countries, labour demand could decline, potentially reducing inflows from Pakistani workers abroad.
Financial markets have already shown signs of caution. Pakistan’s Eurobond yields and credit default swaps have widened by around 100 basis points, indicating a shift in international investor sentiment and raising the cost of borrowing from global markets.
The report suggests that Pakistan is unlikely to use its foreign exchange reserves aggressively to defend the rupee. Instead, policymakers are expected to focus on tighter import management and maintaining a sustainable external balance.
Overall, analysts expect the rupee to gradually depreciate over time rather than experience a sudden or sharp devaluation, as economic adjustments continue amid global uncertainties.