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  • April inflation records double digit increase

    April inflation records double digit increase

    Pakistan’s headline inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), witnessed a notable increase of 11.10 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in April 2021, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

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  • Consumer confidence declines in first quarter of 2021

    Consumer confidence declines in first quarter of 2021

    KARACHI: The consumer confidence index has declined by over 10 percent in the first quarter of 2021 owing to concerns over the current economic situation owing to imposition of restrictions to prevent spread of coronavirus.

    Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan and Gallup Pakistan issued their report on ‘Pakistan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)’ for Q1 2021 on Thursday.

    The CCI report has been developed by assessing Consumers’ Confidence about the economy as well as their personal financial situation. The Index covers four key parameters i.e., Household Financial Situation, Country’s Economic Condition, Unemployment, and Household Savings.

    The Index is a reflection of ‘Current Situation’ (economic changes felt in the last six months), as well as ‘Future Expectations’ (changes expected for next 6 months) of consumers across the country.

    The CCI ranges from 0 to 200, with 100 as the neutral value. A score of less than 100 indicates pessimism. The CCI was 80.8 points in Q1 2021, compared to 90.3 points in Q4 2020, translating into 10.5 percent q-o-q decrease. This deterioration in sentiment is driven by restrictions imposed on business operations by the government to counter the third wave of the pandemic.

    Consumers reported a greater decline in Future Expectations (down 12.0 percent) due to prevailing uncertainty, compared to the Current Situation, which also declined by 8.3 percent this quarter.

    Nauman Lakhani, Country Lead of Dun & Bradstreet in Pakistan stated, “The fifth issue of Pakistan Consumer Confidence marks the beginning of the calendar year 2021.

    A decline of over 10 percent q-o-q in the Consumer Confidence reflects increasing concerns amongst respondents. Consumers reported a greater decline in Future Expectations compared to Current Situation which demonstrates that consumers are more apprehensive about Future.”

    Bilal Ijaz Gilani, Executive Director Gallup Pakistan, added, “In the first quarter of 2021, CCI shows a consumer who is both increasingly concerned about the present economic situation and also apprehensive about the future. Unemployment concerns have been rising to mid-2020 level as the government imposes lockdown in major cities, curtail business hours, and shut schools in wake of the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Inflation at high 7-8 percent continues to eat purchasing power of the common consumer. With the new Finance Minister, we at Gallup hope that growth enhancing policies will be introduced to bring short term relief to consumers.”

    During the current quarter, all CCI parameters witnessed an overall decline. Consumer sentiments witnessed the largest deterioration in regards to Economic Condition of the Country which declined by 16.0 percent on account of resumption of smart lockdown.

    During Q1 2021, Household Financial Situation was the only CCI parameter that managed to stay above 100 points despite decreasing for the first time since Q1 2020.

    Furthermore, Unemployment continues to drag consumers’ enthusiasm and remained the most pessimistic parameter. Unemployment Situation deteriorated by 15.7 percent q-o-q, more than half (53 percent) of respondents believe that Unemployment will increase in the next six months compared to 42 percent in Q4 2020 and 39 percent in Q3 2020.

    During Q1 2021 survey, 92 percent consumers believed that daily essentials have continued to become expensive / very expensive in the last 6 months compared to 93 percent in Q4 2020.

  • Foreign exchange reserves increase by $307 million to $23.52 billion

    Foreign exchange reserves increase by $307 million to $23.52 billion

    KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves of the country increased by $307 million to $23.52 billion by week ended April 23, 2021, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.

    The foreign exchange reserves of the country were at $23.213 billion by week ended April 16, 2021.

    The foreign exchange reserves of the central bank increased by $384 million to $16.428 billion by week ended April 23, 2021 as compared with $16.044 billion a week ago.

    However, foreign exchange reserves held by commercial banks fell by $77 million to $7.092 billion by week ended April 23, 2021 as compared with $7.169 billion a week ago.

  • ACCA, IMA global economic conditions survey released

    ACCA, IMA global economic conditions survey released

    KARACHI: The global economy is bouncing back in terms of confidence, orders, employment and spending, according to the latest ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS).

    The survey of senior accountants and finance professional across the world recorded the biggest jump in economic confidence this quarter in the 12 years it has been running. The balance of those more optimistic minus those less optimistic increased by 26 points in this survey.

    The GECS is consistent with the view that the global economy stands a good chance of reaching its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year.

    The results for South Asia – including Pakistan – point to much improved levels of confidence, reflecting better domestic and global demand prospects. As a result, confidence rose sharply in South Asia with only North America recording a bigger increase. But latest spike in Covid-19 cases in India and Pakistan has further muddled the economic outlook for economies in the region.

    When asked about the prospect of higher inflation, there is a marked contrast between the relatively high expectations of respondents in South Asia, Africa and North America and rather lower expectations in Western Europe.

    Across South Asia, activity indicators in the region improved but by less than the global average. There remains a legacy of tens of millions of people in the region who have fallen into poverty as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.

    Sajjeed Aslam, head of ACCA Pakistan, comments: ‘Different levels of economic prospects in the largely optimistic global picture are attributed to three factors that heavily influence the economy – the rate of vaccinations, the amount of government fiscal stimulus and savings banked by individuals during restrictions and lockdowns.’

    Michael Taylor, chief economist at ACCA, said of the global picture: ‘This survey paints a much brighter picture with confidence jumping by the most in the history of the survey. The approval and deployment of several effective vaccines has dramatically improved the prospects of an end to the Covid crisis. A very large US fiscal stimulus has also boosted global economic prospects this year.’

    ‘The global orders index also increased in the Q1 survey and is consistent with further recovery in the global economy into the second half of 2021. We now expect global economic activity to return to its pre-Covid level from Q4 2019, later this year.’

    The survey also reported some more mixed results. The ‘fear’ indices, which track concern about customers and suppliers going out of business, are still above long-term averages, reflecting continued uncertainty.

    And near-term cost concerns increased, to a balance of 33 in Q1 from 24 in the previous survey, reflecting higher commodity prices and other costs, as the global economy recovers. But cost concerns are still below their long-run average.

    The prospect of a strong economic rebound has also raised questions about the possibility of sustained increases in inflation, with two-thirds of global respondents saying they expect it to rise within five years.

    However, the report concludes that the effect of the recessions of 2020 will keep a lid on inflation for the next year in most countries, with an expected steady rise in the next three to five years. In the USA, predicted strong economic growth this year, could lead to inflation much quicker.

  • Foreign exchange reserves flat at $23.21 billion

    Foreign exchange reserves flat at $23.21 billion

    KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves of the country registered nominal fall of $7 million to $23.213 billion by week ended April 16, 2021, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

    The foreign exchange reserves of the country were $23.22 billion by week ended April 09, 2021.

    The official foreign exchange reserves of the SBP fell by $62 million to $16.044 billion by week ended April 16, 2021 from $16.106 billion a week ago.

    However, foreign exchange reserves maintained by commercial banks increased by $55 million to $7.169 billion by week ended April 16, 2021 as compared with $7.114 billion a week ago.

  • Foreign direct investment plunges by 35pc in nine months

    Foreign direct investment plunges by 35pc in nine months

    KARACHI: The influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Pakistan has plummeted by 35 percent during the first nine months (July – March) of the fiscal year 2020/2021, as per data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday.

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  • Pakistan exports textile products worth $11.35bn in nine months

    Pakistan exports textile products worth $11.35bn in nine months

    KARACHI: Pakistan has exported textile products worth $11.35 billion during first nine months (July – March) 2020/2021, showing 9 percent growth, according to data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Saturday.

    The exports of textile products during the first nine months of the last fiscal year were at $10.41 billion, the PBS reported.

    In terms of volume the export of knitwear was on the top in textile exports. The country exported knitwear products worth $2.78 billion during first nine months of the current fiscal year as compared with $2.29 billion in the corresponding months of the last fiscal year, showing a growth of 21 percent.

    The export of readymade garments was recorded at $2.27 billion during July – March 2020/2021 as compared with $2.17 billion in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.

    The export of bedwear recorded 16.5 percent growth to $2.05 billion during first nine months of the current fiscal year as compared with $1.76 billion in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.

    The export of textile products in the month of March 2021 recorded 30 percent growth to $1.35 billion when compared with $1.04 billion in the same month of the last year.

  • Pakistan foreign exchange reserves increase to $23.22 billion

    Pakistan foreign exchange reserves increase to $23.22 billion

    KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves of the country have increased by $2.54 billion to $23.22 billion by week ended April 09, 2021, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.

    The foreign exchange reserves of the country were at $20.679 billion by week ended April 02, 2021.

    The official foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank increased by $2.579 billion to $16.106 billion by week ended April 09, 2021 as compared with $13.527 billion a week ago.

    The increase in reserves has been attributed to receipt of proceeds of $2.5 billion against issuance of Pakistan Euro Bonds.

    The foreign exchange reserves held by commercial banks eased by $38 million to $7.114 billion by week ended April 09, 2021 as compared with $7.152 billion a week ago.