Islamabad, March 27, 2025 – Pakistan is expected to experience an unprecedented rise in temperatures over the coming months, as warned by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
Climate experts have raised concerns about extreme heat conditions and water shortages that could impact millions across the country.
At a press conference, Chief Meteorologist PMD Muhammad Afzal highlighted the likelihood of a significant temperature surge, cautioning that temperatures may rise by 3°C to 5°C above normal levels. The increase in heat levels is expected to impact agriculture, water reservoirs, and urban centers, potentially leading to severe heatwave conditions.
One of the major contributing factors to the rising temperatures is the lack of sufficient winter rainfall. The PMD reported that Pakistan recorded 42% less rainfall than usual, with Sindh receiving a drastic 63% decrease, Balochistan 53%, and Punjab 41%. This alarming decline has resulted in dangerously low water levels in major reservoirs and dams, raising concerns about water availability for both domestic and agricultural use.
Afzal further warned that below-average rainfall is likely to continue in the northern regions, exacerbating the existing water crisis. This could lead to drought-like conditions, crop failures, and a rise in health-related issues due to extreme heat. He urged the government and the public to take water conservation measures seriously to mitigate the potential crisis.
Urban centers in Pakistan, including major cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, are expected to experience severe heatwaves due to the urban heat island effect. This will not only increase energy consumption due to higher cooling demands but also pose serious health risks, especially for vulnerable populations such as children and the old-age persons.
Rising temperatures may also accelerate glacial melting, leading to a temporary increase in river flows but also heightening the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and flash floods in northern Pakistan. The potential formation of cyclones over the Arabian Sea in May is another concern, given the increase in sea surface temperatures.
During the Eidul Fitr holidays, most parts of Pakistan are expected to remain hot and dry, with temperatures likely to be 2°C to 3°C above normal. Karachi, in particular, may see a surge of 3°C to 4°C above the usual levels, adding to the discomfort of citizens observing the festivities.
A brief wet spell with rain, thunderstorms, and snowfall over mountainous regions is forecasted for March 26-27 in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Punjab. Some areas, such as Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, and Mansehra, may receive moderate to heavy rainfall, while dust storms and thunderstorms are likely over Punjab’s plains. Heavy rainfall in the northern areas could lead to flash floods, while windstorms and hailstorms pose risks to infrastructure, including electric poles, solar panels, and standing crops.
Authorities and emergency services have been urged to take precautionary measures to manage the impact of rising temperatures, potential heatwaves, and worsening water shortages. Public awareness campaigns should be launched to educate citizens about heatwave preparedness, water conservation, and general safety measures. The Met Office has also advised the public to stay hydrated, limit unnecessary outdoor activities, and adopt water-saving strategies to mitigate the effects of the upcoming temperature crisis.