Pakistan’s temperatures have risen significantly since 1981, while rainfall trends show sharp regional differences and growing variability, according to a PMD assessment.

Pakistan is warming significantly, with night-time temperatures rising faster than daytime temperatures, while rainfall patterns are becoming increasingly variable across different parts of the country, according to a comprehensive climate assessment covering 1981 to 2025.

The assessment by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) found that maximum, minimum and mean temperatures increased by 0.20°C, 0.26°C and 0.21°C per decade, respectively, over the 45-year period.

Annual precipitation recorded a modest decline of 7.40 millimetres per decade. However, the decline was not statistically significant, highlighting the considerable year-to-year variation in rainfall.

The assessment examines long-term temperature and precipitation trends, along with extreme weather events, using spatial and temporal analysis to identify differences across Pakistan’s provinces and territories.

The findings are intended to support region-specific climate policies, adaptation planning, disaster preparedness and resilience measures.

Pakistan Records Extreme Heat

Pakistan has experienced some of the most extreme temperatures recorded in Asia.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) evaluated the 54.0°C temperature recorded at Turbat on 28 May 2017, subsequently determining the observation as 53.7°C with an uncertainty margin of ±0.4°C. The WMO ranks the observation among the highest temperature extremes it recognises globally.

Rainfall has shown similarly pronounced variations.

During the winter of 2024-25, Pakistan recorded a national rainfall deficit of 67%, with deficits reaching 90% in Sindh and 69% in Punjab.

By contrast, the 2022 monsoon produced rainfall as much as 450% above average in parts of southern Pakistan. The resulting floods submerged around one-third of the country and affected approximately 33 million people.

Warming Concentrated in Late Winter and Spring

The assessment found substantial seasonal and regional differences in temperature trends, with some of the strongest warming occurring during late winter and spring.

Maximum temperatures increased by as much as 1.0°C per decade between February and April across northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab and parts of Balochistan and Sindh.

A comparison of the 1981-2000 and 2001-2020 periods found that late-winter and spring temperatures increased by between 1.5°C and 2.5°C from February to May across Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan, Sindh, KP and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

The assessment suggests that earlier and warmer spring conditions could accelerate snowmelt in northern catchments, potentially affecting water availability and flood risks.

However, cooling trends of up to 0.6°C per decade were also identified during June-September and December-January. In parts of northern and central Pakistan, this translated into cooling of between 0.5°C and 2.0°C between the two comparison periods.

The report links some summer cooling to increased cloud cover associated with higher monsoon precipitation.

Nights Warming Faster Across Southern Pakistan

Minimum temperatures have increased across most of Pakistan, with warming of up to 0.5°C per decade between February and November in southern and central areas, including Sindh, southern Punjab and Balochistan.

The comparison between the two 20-year periods showed night-time warming of between 1.0°C and 2.0°C during spring, particularly across southern and central Punjab, upper Sindh and Balochistan.

At the same time, localised winter cooling was observed in northern KP and Gilgit-Baltistan.

The stronger increase in minimum temperatures means that the difference between daytime and night-time conditions is changing in several parts of the country.

Rainfall Trends Differ Sharply by Region

Rainfall trends remain highly uneven across Pakistan.

Punjab and Sindh recorded increases in monsoon rainfall of more than 10mm per decade in some locations, while composite analysis showed rainfall increases exceeding 40mm in southern KP, Sindh and Balochistan.

In contrast, northern areas, particularly KP, AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan, experienced declining precipitation during spring, late summer and early winter. Some areas recorded composite reductions exceeding 70mm.

The broader analysis found rainfall increases of more than 30mm per decade in some parts of Punjab, KP and Sindh, particularly during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.

Composite increases exceeded 100mm in some areas.

Meanwhile, AJK, Gilgit-Baltistan and northern KP recorded declines of up to 50mm per decade during some seasons. Composite reductions reached as much as 200mm in parts of northern Punjab, AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan.

The report notes that several of these precipitation changes were statistically significant.

Fog Patterns Also Changing

The assessment highlights a significant increase in fog across Punjab and Sindh.

Fog has traditionally been associated with winter in Pakistan’s eastern plains, where more than 10 foggy days annually were historically considered normal.

The changing fog pattern has been associated with winter cooling in daytime temperatures across affected areas, illustrating the complex interaction between warming trends and local seasonal conditions.

Extreme Heat Becoming More Prominent

Analysis of extreme climate indices from 1980 to 2025 showed substantial changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events.

Southern Pakistan, including Punjab, Sindh and western Balochistan, recorded more than 100 hot days a year in some areas.

The frequency of hot days increased by as much as five days per decade, although parts of central Punjab recorded declines of up to five days per decade.

Extreme heatwave events also became more frequent, particularly in KP and Balochistan.

Punjab and Sindh recorded the highest cooling degree-day values, exceeding 6,000 units in some areas, indicating substantial cooling-energy demand.

Warm nights increased particularly strongly across central Punjab, upper Sindh and Balochistan.

The diurnal temperature range exceeded 14°C in parts of KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh and Balochistan, although the direction of change differed between regions.