Strong industrial rebound and services expansion support overall economic performance
ISLAMABAD – Pakistan recorded 4% GDP growth during the first nine months of fiscal year 2025-26 (9MFY26), according to estimates released by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Wednesday.
The latest data shows that the economy expanded in line with projections from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which had forecast growth in the range of 3.75% to 4.75% for FY26.
Quarterly revisions lift growth outlook
The NAC also revised upward GDP growth estimates for earlier quarters of FY26:
• Q1 FY26: revised up to 3.92%
• Q2 FY26: revised up to 4.05%
• Q3 FY26: recorded at 4.0%
The adjustments reflect improved sectoral performance across agriculture, industry and services.
Agriculture sector posts steady gains
The agriculture sector showed moderate improvement, posting 3.01% growth in Q3 FY26, compared to 2.4% in the same period last year.
Growth was driven by:
• Livestock: 3.7%
• Other crops: 2.27%
• Forestry: 1.62%
• Important crops: 1.1%
Overall, agriculture grew by 2.9% in 9MFY26, supported by stable livestock output and gradual recovery in crop production.
Industry leads economic recovery
The industrial sector recorded a strong rebound, growing 4.65% in Q3 FY26, compared to just 0.3% in the same quarter last year.
A key driver was large-scale manufacturing (LSM), which expanded by 9.53%, reflecting improved industrial activity and demand conditions.
However, construction growth remained modest at 0.5%, mainly due to a high base effect from the previous year.
Overall industrial growth for 9MFY26 averaged 6.4%, significantly higher than 0.4% in the same period last year.
Services sector maintains momentum
The services sector grew by 4.18% in Q3 FY26, driven by strong performance in:
• Public administration and social security: 8.88%
• Information and communication: 9.78%
Overall services growth for 9MFY26 stood at 3.7%, compared to 2.8% in the same period last year.
Economic outlook remains cautiously positive
Economists say the 4% growth rate reflects a gradual recovery supported by industrial expansion and stable services activity.
However, some analysts caution that rising energy prices, administrative measures and external pressures could weigh on growth in the final quarter of FY26.
The NAC also slightly revised Pakistan’s FY25 GDP growth upward to 3.18%, from the previously estimated 3.06%.
Despite challenges, the latest figures suggest Pakistan’s economy is maintaining a stable growth trajectory within official projections.