Karachi, December 3, 2024 – Pakistan’s petroleum sales climbed to a remarkable 25-month high of 1.58 million tons in November 2024, marking a 15% year-on-year (YoY) increase, according to analysts at Arif Habib Limited. This significant growth is attributed to heightened demand driven by curbs on smuggled Iranian petroleum products and a 12-15% YoY reduction in motor spirit (MS) and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices, respectively.
Breakdown of Key Products:
• Motor Spirit (MS): Sales rose 17% YoY to 0.67 million tons, reflecting consistent demand for petrol.
• High-Speed Diesel (HSD): Dispatches surged 21% YoY to 0.79 million tons, supported by increased agricultural activity during the peak harvesting season.
• Furnace Oil (FO): Volumes plunged 55% YoY to 0.04 million tons, attributed to declining reliance on FO-based power generation.
Month-on-Month (MoM) Performance:
Petroleum sales grew 6% MoM, with:
• HSD sales increasing 15% MoM, driven by harvesting and reduced availability of smuggled petroleum.
• MS sales remaining flat MoM, indicating stable urban fuel consumption.
• FO dispatches declining 36% MoM, consistent with reduced industrial demand.
Cumulative 5MFY25 Analysis:
For the first five months of FY25, petroleum sales totaled 6.75 million tons, a 5% YoY increase from 6.45 million tons in the same period last year. Product-specific performance included:
• MS: 3.18 million tons (+6% YoY)
• HSD: 2.89 million tons (+8% YoY)
• FO: 0.31 million tons (-30% YoY)
Company-Wise Market Dynamics:
• PSO (Pakistan State Oil): Sales increased 12% YoY to 0.80 million tons in November 2024. However, PSO’s market share dropped 4.3% YoY in 5MFY25 to 46.2% from 50.5% in the same period last year.
• APL (Attock Petroleum Limited): Market share fell to 8.6% YoY in 5MFY25.
• SHEL (Shell Pakistan) & HASCOL: Both posted YoY market share gains at 7.2% and 3.0%, respectively.
• Other OMCs: A significant market share jump of 5.4% YoY to 35.1%.
Revenue Implications:
With higher sales of MS and HSD, Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collections increased to PKR 110 billion in November 2024, up 19% YoY and 7% MoM. Cumulative PDL for 5MFY25 now stands at PKR 464 billion, a 16% YoY increase, showcasing improved revenue-generation efficiency.
The sustained growth reflects the combined impact of policy interventions, seasonal demand, and competitive pricing. Analysts forecast steady demand for petroleum products, bolstered by ongoing economic activity and reduced reliance on smuggled supplies.