Karachi, April 28, 2025 – The Pakistani rupee weakened by 10 paisas against the US dollar on Monday, closing at PKR 281.07 compared to last Friday’s PKR 280.97 in the interbank foreign exchange market.
Currency dealers attributed the rupee’s decline to higher dollar demand for import and corporate payments on the first trading day of the week.
Analysts also noted that the fall in foreign exchange reserves and prevailing geopolitical tensions contributed significantly to the rupee’s weakening. Despite a slight recovery toward the end of last week, the rupee remains under pressure as Pakistan navigates global economic uncertainties.
Recent trends suggest that the rupee is expected to witness notable fluctuations in the coming week. Last week, the rupee began at 280.86 per dollar on Monday, depreciated to 281.07 by Thursday, and modestly improved to 280.97 on Friday. Market experts believe that these fluctuations will become more pronounced amid evolving geopolitical risks and global trade redirections.
Financial terminal Tresmark pointed out that the rupee’s movement has broken a 15-month pattern of relative stability. Interestingly, this rupee weakness persists even though the global dollar index has declined nearly 10 percent. Analysts interpret this as part of a broader adjustment strategy, not merely a reaction to reserve depletion. They believe the rupee’s volatility is linked to global trade disruptions, including tariff-related announcements by former US President Trump.
According to a recent Fitch Ratings report, the rupee is forecasted to gradually weaken to 285 per dollar by June 2025 and could further slide to 295 by June 2026. The agency states that as Pakistan’s economic activity increases, current account pressures will build, pushing the rupee lower against the dollar in a managed manner.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s State Bank (SBP) reported a decline of $367 million in foreign exchange reserves during the week ending April 18, reducing reserves to $10.205 billion. The drop primarily results from scheduled foreign debt repayments, which continue to pressure the rupee.
However, some relief is expected as inflows exceeding a billion dollars from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are anticipated. Additionally, strong remittance and export inflows may help stabilize the rupee in the short term.
Despite positive inflows, the rupee’s future remains tied to careful economic management, foreign reserve rebuilding, and the broader movement of the dollar globally. Analysts warn that continued volatility in the rupee-dollar exchange rate is inevitable but could ultimately help Pakistan manage external vulnerabilities more effectively.