Karachi, May 18, 2025 – The Pakistani rupee is anticipated to remain stable in the coming week starting May 19, 2025, supported by an improved external position, including consistent inflows from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a sustained current account surplus.
Recent developments have boosted investor confidence and created a wave of optimism in financial markets. Chief among them is a diplomatic breakthrough between India and Pakistan, easing tensions after weeks of heightened military standoff—the worst in decades. Additionally, the State Bank of Pakistan has received the second tranche of $1.02 billion from the IMF under its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, helping to shore up foreign exchange reserves.
Despite a sharp decline in the monthly current account surplus—which stood at $12 million in April, down 99 percent from the previous month—the overall trend remains encouraging. Over the first ten months of FY25, Pakistan posted a current account surplus of $1.88 billion, a sharp reversal from the $1.33 billion deficit recorded in the same period last year.
The rupee has shown resilience in recent sessions, hovering in a narrow band against the US dollar. It closed at 281.56 on Monday and 281.61 on Friday in the interbank market. This consistent performance has led analysts to predict that the rupee will likely stay stable, provided no major external shocks occur.
A currency dealer noted, “There is some pressure from increased dollar demand for import payments, but the rupee is expected to remain below the 281 mark next week due to stronger fundamentals and recent IMF inflows.”
April’s trade data shows an 18 percent year-on-year increase in imports, reaching $5.237 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) dipped to 99.4 in April from 101.6 in March, reflecting a slight depreciation in the rupee’s competitiveness.
As of May 9, the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $10.4 billion. The recent IMF disbursement will be reflected in the central bank’s next reserve update, further reinforcing the rupee’s stable outlook. Market participants remain cautiously optimistic that the rupee will maintain this stable trajectory amid ongoing economic recovery.Rupee expected to remain stable amid strengthened external position
Karachi, May 18, 2025 – The Pakistani rupee is anticipated to remain stable in the coming week starting May 19, 2025, supported by an improved external position, including consistent inflows from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a sustained current account surplus.
Recent developments have boosted investor confidence and created a wave of optimism in financial markets. Chief among them is a diplomatic breakthrough between India and Pakistan, easing tensions after weeks of heightened military standoff—the worst in decades. Additionally, the State Bank of Pakistan has received the second tranche of $1.02 billion from the IMF under its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, helping to shore up foreign exchange reserves.
Despite a sharp decline in the monthly current account surplus—which stood at $12 million in April, down 99 percent from the previous month—the overall trend remains encouraging. Over the first ten months of FY25, Pakistan posted a current account surplus of $1.88 billion, a sharp reversal from the $1.33 billion deficit recorded in the same period last year.
The rupee has shown resilience in recent sessions, hovering in a narrow band against the US dollar. It closed at 281.56 on Monday and 281.61 on Friday in the interbank market. This consistent performance has led analysts to predict that the rupee will likely stay stable, provided no major external shocks occur.
A currency dealer noted, “There is some pressure from increased dollar demand for import payments, but the rupee is expected to remain below the 281 mark next week due to stronger fundamentals and recent IMF inflows.”
April’s trade data shows an 18 percent year-on-year increase in imports, reaching $5.237 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) dipped to 99.4 in April from 101.6 in March, reflecting a slight depreciation in the rupee’s competitiveness.
As of May 9, the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $10.4 billion. The recent IMF disbursement will be reflected in the central bank’s next reserve update, further reinforcing the rupee’s stable outlook. Market participants remain cautiously optimistic that the rupee will maintain this stable trajectory amid ongoing economic recovery.