In continuation of efforts to make the process of monetary policy formulation more predictable and transparent in line with international best practices, the SBP decided to increase the frequency of monetary policy reviews from six (6) to eight (8) times a year.
This action will bring the frequency of meetings in line with that incomparable emerging markets. It will also help to enhance the predictability of monetary policy actions, the SBP added.
Accordingly, the schedule for the next five MPC meetings is as follows:
1. December MPC meeting: Tuesday, 14th Dec 2021
2. January MPC meeting: Monday, 24th Jan 2022
3. March MPC meeting: Tuesday, 8th Mar 2022
4. April MPC meeting: Tuesday, 19th Apr 2022
5. June MPC meeting: Friday, 10th Jun 2022
The advance calendar for the next half-year of MPC meetings will be shared at the time of the June 2022 MPC meeting, the SBP added.
KARACHI: The current account deficit of the country has widened to $5.08 billion during July – October of fiscal year 2021/2022.
According to the balance of payment released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday the current account deficit during first four months of the current fiscal year widened to $5.08 billion as compared with a surplus of $1.31 billion in the same months of the last year.
During the first four months of the current fiscal year the import bill surged by 64 per cent to $25.1 billion as compared with $15.17 billion in the same months of the last fiscal year.
The exports of the country registered an increase of 25 per cent to $9.46 billion during first four months of the current fiscal year as compared with $7.57 billion in the corresponding months of the last fiscal year.
However, trade deficit widened by 106 per cent to $15.64 billion during first four months of the current fiscal year as compared with the deficit of $7.6 billion in the corresponding months of the last year.
Meanwhile, the inflows of remittances grew by 12 per cent during the first four months of the current fiscal year over the same period last year.
Workers’ remittances increased to $10.55 billion during July – October of the current fiscal year as compared with $9.23 billion in the same period of the last year.
The current account deficit in October 2021 has been recorded at $1.66 billion as compared with the deficit of $1.13 billion in September 2021.
KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday decided to increase the key policy rate by 150 basis points to 8.75 per cent for next two months from the existing 7.25 per cent.
At today’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to raise the policy rate by 150 basis points to 8.75 percent. This reflected the MPC’s view that since the last meeting, risks related to inflation and the balance of payments have increased while the outlook for growth has continued to improve, the SBP said.
The heightened risks related to inflation and balance of payments stem from both global and domestic factors. Across the world, price pressures from Covid-induced disruptions to supply chains and higher energy prices are proving to be larger and longer-lasting than previously anticipated.
In response, central banks have generally begun to tighten monetary policy to keep inflation expectations anchored. In Pakistan too, high import prices have contributed to higher-than-expected CPI, SPI, and core inflation outturns.
At the same time, there are also emerging signs of demand-side pressures on inflation, and inflation expectations of businesses have risen on account of further upside risks from domestic administered prices.
With respect to the balance of payments, the current account deficits in September and October have been larger than anticipated, reflecting both rising oil and commodity prices and buoyant domestic demand. The burden of adjusting to these external pressures has largely fallen on the rupee.
As a result of these developments, the balance of risks has shifted away from growth and toward inflation and the current account faster than expected. Accordingly, the MPC was of the view that there is now a need to proceed faster to normalize monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures and preserve stability with growth.
Today’s rate increase is a material move in this direction. Looking ahead, the MPC reiterated that the end goal of mildly positive real interest rates remains unchanged and, given today’s move, expects to take measured steps to that end.
In reaching its decision, the MPC considered key trends and prospects in the real, external and fiscal sectors, and the resulting outlook for monetary conditions and inflation.
The economic recovery underway since the start of FY21 continues, as reflected in most high-frequency indicators of domestic demand―including automobile sales, POL (petroleum, oil and lubricants) sales, and electricity generation―as well as the strength of imports and tax revenues.
Notwithstanding some moderation in September due to a high base effect and some supply chain disruptions, LSM registered broad-based growth of 5.2 percent (y/y) in Q1-FY22, led by production of consumer goods (both durable and non-durable), construction-allied, and export industries.
In agriculture, production levels of all major Kharif crops except cotton are estimated to have reached all-time highs. Cotton production has also rebounded, with arrivals at ginneries growing by 80 percent as of 1st November compared to the same period last season. Overall, the economic recovery appears increasingly durable and self-sustaining, against the backdrop of rapidly falling Covid cases and the government’s vigorous vaccination roll-out.
Looking ahead, rising input costs and normalization of macroeconomic policies are likely to lead to some moderation in the growth of industrial activity. Nevertheless, this could be more than offset by the improved outlook for agriculture, such that risks to the growth forecast of 4-5 percent in FY22 are tilted to the upside.
Persistently high international commodity prices and strong domestic activity kept the current account deficit elevated at $3.4 billion in Q1-FY22.
The deficit widened to$1.66 billion in October from $1.13 billion in September due to high energy prices and an uptick in services imports, despite some moderation in non-energy imports. There was also a moderate month-on-month decline in exports and remittances.
The current account deficit for FY22 is expected to modestly exceed the previous forecast of 2-3 percent of GDP.
While the market-based exchange rate has played its due role as a shock absorber, it has borne a considerable burden in terms of adjusting to the widening current account deficit. The rupee has depreciated by a further 3.4 percent since the last MPC meeting. The US dollar also appreciated against most emerging market currencies since May as expectations of tapering by the Federal Reserve have been brought forward. However, the fall in the value of the rupee since May has been comparatively large. As other adjustment tools normalize, including interest rates and fiscal policy, pressures on the rupee should abate.
The overall fiscal deficit improved to 0.8 percent of GDP in Q1-FY22 from 1 percent in the same period last year. This was driven by the above-target growth in FBR tax revenues (38.3 percent (y/y)) despite higher refunds and a significant reduction in the sales tax rate on POL. However, non-tax revenue fell by 22.6 percent (y/y) due to a sharp decline in petroleum development levy (PDL) collection. In addition, the primary surplus was 28.6 percent lower than in Q1-FY21, due to a 33 percent (y/y) growth in non-interest spending. Looking ahead, it will be important to achieve the fiscal consolidation plan in the budget to help restrain domestic demand. A higher-than-planned primary fiscal deficit would likely worsen the outlook for inflation and the current account and would undermine the durability of the recovery.
Real money supply growth has accelerated in recent months to above-trend levels. With the economic recovery on a sound footing, there is a need to pare back this growth as part of the broader move toward normalizing monetary conditions. The MPC noted that the recent increase in banks’ cash reserve requirements would help in this regard.
Inflationary pressures have increased considerably since the last MPC meeting, with headline inflation rising from 8.4 percent (y/y) in August to 9 percent in September and further to 9.2 percent in October, mainly driven by higher energy costs and a rise in core inflation.
The momentum of inflation has also picked up significantly, with average m/m inflation in the last two months at an elevated 2 percent and all sub-components of the CPI basket showing an acceleration. Core inflation has also picked up in the last two months, rising to 6.7 percent (y/y) in both urban and rural areas on the back of house rents, cloth and garments, medicines, footwear, and other components.
In addition, inflation expectations of households remain elevated and those of businesses have risen sharply. Looking ahead, global commodity prices and potential further upward adjustments in administered prices of energy pose upside risks to the average inflation forecast of 7-9 percent in FY22.
The MPC will continue to carefully monitor developments affecting medium-term prospects for inflation, financial stability and growth and stands ready to respond appropriately.
The SBP said the data is compiled and disseminated for information only. These exchange rates are estimates that quoted by various commercial banks to their clients.
KARACHI: The dollar is again reached above Rs175 near an all-time high despite efforts made by the central bank to stabilize the local currency, dealers said on Friday.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) last week announced to increase the average Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR), to be maintained during a period of two weeks by scheduled banks, from 5 percent to 6 percent and minimum CRR to be maintained each day from 3 percent to 4 percent.
The rupee made recovery for continuous three sessions following this announcement. The announcement was made on November 12, 2021 when the rupee hit the all-time low of Rs175.73 to the dollar.
However, the local unit lost Rs1.5 against the dollar during the past two sessions on a statement of the finance advisor that he could not give a certain date for inflows from the IMF.
KARACHI: The liquid foreign exchange reserves of the country slipped by $476 million to $23.55 billion by the week ended November 12, 2021, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
The foreign exchange reserves of the country were at $24.026 billion by the week ended November 05, 2021.
The official reserves of the SBP also fell by $381 million to $16.945 billion by the week ended November 12, 2021, as compared with $17.326 billion a week ago.
The foreign exchange reserves maintained by commercial banks also declined by $95 million to $6.605 billion by the week ended November 12, 2021, as compared with $6.7 billion a week ago.
Karachi, November 18, 2021 – The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has released the official exchange rates for customers, effective as of November 18, 2021.
Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the monetary policy committee of SBP will convene on Friday, November 19, 2021 to announce the monetary policy for the next two months.
The analysts expect that SBP to remain hawkish, raising its policy rate for the second time since the beginning of the current fiscal year 2021/2022 and at a much higher magnitude of 100 basis points – the highest hike in almost 2.3 years – taking the total cumulative increase in FY22TD to 125bps. With this, the revised policy rate is expected at 8.25 per cent.
To recall, the SBP, continuing with its tightening policy, recently announced a 100bps hike in Cash Reserve Requirement too.
A shift towards ‘a more hawkish stance’ from the earlier ‘gradual and calibrated’ might be evident in this monetary policy meeting as inflation worries are rumbling more clearly than before.
Inflation in Pakistan has increased markedly with the resumption of economic activities – but as supply-side inflation has subsided, demand-side inflation has overshot.
Headline inflation initially remained low averaging at 8.7 per cent during the first four months of the fiscal year 2021/2022, but now with waning base effect, it has started accelerating, raising concerns.
Clearly, the inflationary pressures reflect the upside arising in global energy and commodity prices and moreover, do not look ready to subside anytime soon.
We have seen some of the central banks in the regional markets reacting as consumer prices are being pressured by global supply-chain disruptions and costlier energy and food supplies.
Domestically, there has been a positive development on the COVID front, in terms of reduced infections/deaths and faster vaccinations.
The overall improved healthcare conditions coupled with the economic performance of high-frequency indicators (such as auto and cement sales) as well as LSM numbers (2MFY22: +7.3% YoY) evidently signal that the overall economic activity is on the cusp of a strengthening revival.
The domestic recovery that is likely to push GDP growth higher than initially anticipated is adding to inflationary pressures and thus, the prudent policy approach for the SBP would be to tack in a more hawkish path to manage these risks.
Karachi, November 17, 2021 – The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has released the latest exchange rates for various foreign currencies against the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) on Wednesday, November 17, 2021.
