U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made electronics could significantly raise iPhone prices, according to recent estimates by UBS.
The bank’s report highlights how the worst-case scenario could impact Apple’s most premium device—the 1TB iPhone 16 Pro Max.
Currently priced at $1,600, this top-tier iPhone model could jump to $2,062, marking a 29% increase if the existing 54% tariff on Chinese goods remains unchanged.
Earlier estimates had warned of an even steeper price hike to $2,300, reflecting a 40% surge. These figures assume Apple passes the entire tariff burden onto consumers.
The pricing pressure stems from growing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Donald Trump has proposed tariffs as high as 104%, which could cause even sharper increases in future pricing. With Apple still heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing, these proposed tariffs present a serious challenge.
To mitigate risks, Apple has diversified its supply chain to countries like India and Vietnam. iPhones made in India face a lower 26% tariff when imported to the U.S.
For example, a 128GB iPhone 16 Pro, which currently retails for $1,000, would rise to around $1,120—reflecting a 12% increase, since tariffs are applied to the cost Apple pays manufacturers, not the final retail price.
Vietnam, where Apple produces the Watch Ultra 2, also faces a 46% tariff. This could push the smartwatch’s price from $800 to approximately $950, a 19% increase.
UBS also examined the impact on Apple’s broader ecosystem. AI servers manufactured in Taiwan would see a 27% cost hike. While these aren’t consumer-facing products, they are key to Apple’s AI-powered features across iPhones, Macs, and other devices.
Whether Apple will pass these cost increases onto consumers or absorb them, as it did during previous 10% tariffs, remains unclear. The decision may depend on how long its current inventory can shield buyers from higher prices.
As trade policy continues to shift, Apple and its customers could be facing a costly new reality.