Islamabad, May 1, 2025 – The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a comprehensive weather outlook for May 2025, forecasting above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country.
The report raises concerns about the potential for heatwaves, accelerated snowmelt, and worsening drought conditions, particularly in the already dry southern and western regions.
According to the PMD, mean temperatures during May are likely to remain significantly higher than average nationwide. The greatest deviations are expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, areas that will see the maximum departure from normal temperature levels. The PMD’s tercile probabilistic forecast shows a strong agreement among global climate models on widespread heat, with the northern highlands and southern coastal regions most at risk.
The PMD also reported that Pakistan experienced below-average rainfall in April 2025. While a few light rain spells were recorded in northern Punjab, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir, much of Sindh, Balochistan, and central Punjab remained dry, further intensifying existing soil moisture deficits. These dry conditions, coupled with rising temperatures, could severely impact agricultural productivity in rain-fed regions.
The Monthly Rainfall Outlook issued by the PMD, based on eight global seasonal prediction models, suggests a tendency for slightly below-normal rainfall in parts of northern Punjab and adjoining areas, while southern Pakistan and eastern Gilgit-Baltistan may receive near-normal precipitation. The neutral phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to persist, which may influence regional climatic variability.
Impact Forecasts: The PMD warns that persistently high temperatures and reduced rainfall may intensify drought-like conditions in southern Pakistan, increasing soil moisture stress and threatening seasonal crops. The combination of hot and dry weather could also result in strong winds, dust storms, and even localized hailstorms.
Moreover, elevated temperatures in high-altitude areas such as Gilgit-Baltistan may speed up snowmelt, creating a dual-edged scenario—beneficial for irrigation and hydropower but also raising the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
The PMD has urged authorities and the public across Pakistan to remain alert, as heatwaves are likely, especially in the southern plains. Appropriate measures should be taken to mitigate heat-related health risks and safeguard agricultural assets.