Karachi, November 2, 2024 – Pakistan’s petroleum sales experienced a robust 18% Year-on-Year (YoY) increase in October 2024, totaling 1.49 million tons—the highest monthly sales figure since November 2022, according to a report from analysts at Arif Habib Limited.
This growth has been driven by rising demand following significant price reductions in Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD), down 19% and 20% YoY, respectively.
Product-wise Breakdown
October 2024 saw a notable 15% YoY rise in MS (petrol) sales, reaching 0.67 million tons. High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales expanded even further, surging 22% YoY to 0.69 million tons. This uptick in HSD is largely attributed to the ongoing harvesting season, which requires increased diesel consumption for agricultural machinery. Meanwhile, Furnace Oil (FO) volumes also rose by 8% YoY, reaching 0.06 million tons, spurred by heightened demand for FO-based power generation.
On a month-to-month (MoM) basis, petroleum sales saw a 17% increase in October, driven by price cuts, the ongoing harvest, and stricter regulations on smuggled petroleum from Iran. MS sales edged up by 5% MoM, while HSD saw a remarkable 39% MoM boost due to seasonal demand. However, FO dispatches saw a MoM decline of 17%.
Performance in First Four Months of FY 2024-25
In the first four months of fiscal year 2024-25 (4MFY25), total petroleum sales reached 5.18 million tons, representing a 2% YoY increase. MS and HSD sales saw gains, while FO sales experienced a slight dip. Specifically, the volumetric sales of MS, HSD, and FO stood at 2.52 million tons, 2.10 million tons, and 0.27 million tons, respectively.
Company-wise Analysis
In October 2024, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw an 11% YoY increase in sales, totaling 0.70 million tons. PSO’s sales of MS, HSD, and FO grew by 16%, 6%, and a substantial 71% YoY, respectively. SHELL and HASCOL also reported increased sales, with YoY growth of 12% and 19%, respectively. Meanwhile, Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) reported steady sales without any significant YoY change.
However, over the 4MFY25 period, PSO’s and APL’s sales declined by 9% and 14% YoY, respectively. In contrast, SHELL and HASCOL recorded growth rates of 17% and 5%, respectively. Consequently, PSO’s market share dropped by 5.3% to 44.8%, while APL’s share fell by 1.7%, reaching 8.8%. In contrast, SHELL and HASCOL expanded their market shares slightly to 7.3% and 3.3%, respectively. The share of other Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) surged by 6.3% to 35.9%.
Petroleum Development Levy Boost
Reflecting increased sales in MS and HSD, the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection rose sharply in October 2024, reaching approximately PKR 103 billion—a 26% YoY and 19% MoM increase. For 4MFY25, PDL collections totaled PKR 354 billion, marking a 15% YoY growth.
This trend signals sustained demand in the energy sector, reflecting both consumer responses to lower prices and the seasonal rise in diesel usage.
