Jameel Ahmad says falling global commodity prices impacting Pakistan’s export earnings
Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan Jameel Ahmad on Friday said Pakistan’s exports are likely to decline by around $2 billion during fiscal year 2025-26 due to weak global commodity prices and challenging international economic conditions.
Speaking during a visit to the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the SBP governor said export earnings were expected to decline to nearly $30 billion this fiscal year compared with $32 billion recorded last year.
He said falling global rice prices had significantly affected export receipts, noting that rice exports contributed around $3.5 billion last year but lower international prices reduced export earnings by nearly $1 billion this year.
Despite the slowdown, Jameel Ahmad said the government was actively pursuing measures to improve exports and positive results were expected within the next two months.
The SBP governor said Pakistan’s economy had improved considerably compared with the crisis-like conditions witnessed in 2023, when foreign exchange reserves had fallen sharply and import restrictions disrupted business activity.
He noted that foreign exchange reserves had increased from around $3 billion to $17 billion over the past three years, while monthly imports had risen above $5 billion compared with nearly $3 billion during the economic crisis period.
According to the governor, workers’ remittances are expected to cross a record $41 billion during the current fiscal year, compared with $38 billion in the previous year.
He added that Pakistan’s current account remained in surplus during the first nine months of FY26 and the overall deficit was projected to remain between zero and one percent.
On economic growth, Jameel Ahmad said the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics estimated GDP growth at 3.7% during the first nine months of FY26, while the central bank projected annual growth between 3.75% and 4.75%.
However, he warned that global uncertainty and fluctuations in oil prices could affect growth momentum in the final quarter of the fiscal year.
The governor also cautioned that inflation could temporarily rise above 7% during the last quarter of FY26, although the central bank remained committed to maintaining medium-term inflation within the target range of 5% to 7%.
Highlighting reforms in the banking sector, he said financing for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) increased from Rs491 billion in June 2024 to Rs882 billion by December 2025.
The SBP aims to expand SME financing further to Rs1.5 trillion by June 2028, he added.
Jameel Ahmad also revealed that designs for Pakistan’s new currency notes had been finalized and forwarded to the federal cabinet for approval.
In addition, he confirmed progress on developing a regulatory and licensing framework for virtual assets in Pakistan.
Business leaders attending the session stressed the need for lower energy costs, improved export policies, and greater private sector access to bank financing to support long-term economic growth.