Karachi, September 3, 2024 – Pakistan oil sales have recorded a notable decline of 14% year-on-year (YoY) for August 2024, according to an analysis by Topline Securities.
Sales by Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) of Pakistan fell to 1.21 million tons, reflecting a significant drop compared to the same period last year. This decline is attributed to the monsoon season’s impact, although there was a slight 2% month-on-month (MoM) increase due to a full working month, unlike July, which was disrupted by Muharram holidays.
For the first two months of the fiscal year 2024-25 (2MFY25), total oil sales amounted to 2.4 million tons, marking a 12% YoY decline from 2.8 million tons recorded in 2MFY24. When excluding furnace oil (Ex-FO), sales in August 2024 reached 1.2 million tons, showing an 11% YoY decrease but a 3% MoM rise. For 2MFY25, Ex-FO sales totaled 2.3 million tons, reflecting a 9% YoY drop.
Breaking down the sales figures by product, Motor Spirit (MS) experienced a 7% YoY decline but saw a 6% MoM increase, reaching 625,000 tons in August 2024. This uptick is attributed to a reduction in petrol prices by Rs14.64 per liter to Rs260.96 per liter and the resumption of activities such as the start of the school season. Conversely, High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales fell by 17% YoY and 2% MoM, primarily due to the seasonal impact of the monsoon.
Furnace Oil (FO) sales saw a sharp 45% YoY decrease and a 17% MoM drop, totaling 65,000 tons. This significant decline is attributed to reduced power generation from FO-based power plants.
Company-wise performance showed varied results. Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) reported sales of 114,000 tons in August 2024, a 24% YoY decrease, largely due to a 63% YoY fall in FO sales. However, APL saw a 12% MoM rise, driven by a 37% increase in FO sales. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) experienced a 27% YoY and 3% MoM drop in sales, totaling 528,000 tons. PSO’s market share in HSD and MS fell to 44.1% and 40.3%, respectively, down by 192 basis points (bps) and 102 bps MoM. Overall, PSO’s market share declined from 46% in July 2024 to 43% in August 2024.
Shell Pakistan (SHEL) recorded a 6% YoY decrease and a 7% MoM increase in sales, reaching 92,000 tons. HASCOL saw a positive performance with sales of 42,000 tons, marking an 18% YoY increase and a 9% MoM rise.
The government of Pakistan has set a Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection target of Rs1.28 trillion for FY25, with Rs166 billion (13%) already collected in the first two months, based on current calculations.
