Pakistan stocks fall 2.75% WoW amid Middle East tensions and oil price surge

KSE-100 falls to 170,512 points as US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices and cautious investor sentiment weigh on Pakistan equities.

KARACHI: Pakistan equities came under renewed pressure during the week ended September 11, 2026, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index falling 2.75% week on week (WoW) amid heightened Middle East tensions, rising oil prices and cautious investor sentiment.

According to analysts at Arif Habib Limited, the KSE-100 Index declined from 175,329 points in the previous week to 170,512 points.

Renewed US-Iran tensions and concerns over higher energy costs weighed on market activity, keeping investors cautious throughout the week.

Pakistan oil and gas production improves

Pakistan’s oil production improved 1.8% WoW to 68.4 thousand barrels per day, mainly due to higher flows from the Adhi, KPD and Sharf fields.

Gas production also increased by 2% to 3,088 million cubic feet per day, supported by higher output from the Mari and Uch fields. The revival of Shewa production, which reached 68 million cubic feet per day, also contributed to the increase.

Remittances rise 17%

Overseas Pakistani workers’ remittances provided a positive development, rising 17% year on year (YoY) to $3.7 billion in August 2026, compared with $3.1 billion in August 2025.

Remittance inflows increased 1% month on month, while cumulative inflows during the first two months of FY2026-27 rose 15% YoY to $7.3 billion.

Cement sector profits increase

The cement sector also recorded stronger financial performance, with sector profits increasing 13% YoY to Rs138 billion in FY2026.

The improvement was supported by a 7% increase in dispatches to 50.5 million tonnes, capacity utilisation of around 60%, and a 33% reduction in finance costs.

IMF review remains key market catalyst

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to visit Pakistan on September 23, 2026, for reviews under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

The IMF mission is expected to remain in Pakistan until early October to conduct the fourth EFF and third RSF reviews for the year ended June 2026.

The upcoming review is likely to remain an important catalyst for investor sentiment and market direction.

Foreign exchange reserves strengthen

Pakistan’s external position also improved during the week.

Total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased 5.3% WoW to $23.7 billion, while reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose 7% to $18.3 billion.

Commercial banks held around $5.4 billion, while import cover improved to 2.74 months, compared with 2.56 months previously.

Naya Nazimabad Apartments REIT attracts strong demand

The Naya Nazimabad Apartments REIT attracted strong investor interest, with its book building oversubscribed eight times and the public offering oversubscribed 4.3 times.

The REIT raised Rs1.01 billion against total demand of Rs5.6 billion, highlighting strong appetite among investors for the real estate investment product.

Petroleum prices surge under daily pricing mechanism

Petroleum prices also recorded substantial increases under the new daily pricing mechanism.

The price of motor spirit (MS) increased by Rs21.8 per litre to Rs370.8, while high-speed diesel (HSD) rose by Rs23.72 to Rs398.4 per litre.

The increases tracked the seven-day average of Platts petroleum prices. The petroleum levy, Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM) and oil marketing company margins remained unchanged.

Rupee remains broadly stable

The Pakistani rupee appreciated marginally by 0.03%, closing at Rs277.32 against the US dollar, compared with Rs277.41 in the previous week.

The relatively stable currency provided some support to the external position, although higher international oil prices continued to pose risks to the country’s import bill.

KSE-100 outlook

Going forward, market direction is expected to remain sensitive to developments in the US-Iran conflict and the upcoming monetary policy decision.

The IMF review is also expected to remain a major catalyst for investor sentiment and market performance.

Despite the recent correction, the KSE-100 Index is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.5, while offering a dividend yield of 6.5%, according to the market assessment.